PPP: Biden +10 in eight swing states

[Tender Branson]

September 18-19, 2020 survey of 896 battleground voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin:

53% Biden
43% Trump

In the 2016 presidential election, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?

45% Trump
45% Clinton
10% Someone else/don't remember/didn't vote

https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/09/Battleground-Survey-Results.pdf

[Ferguson97]

These battleground polls are useless, why do they keep doing them

[Skye]

These battleground polls are useless, why do they keep doing them

Because it seems it was conducted for a Dem-aligned organization.

[Gass3268]

These battleground polls are useless, why do they keep doing them

It's cheaper to do it this way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt winning FL, NC and GA at the Prez race. They will go D at Senate and Gov races

[Tintrlvr]

Stupid waste. Maybe it would be marginally meaningful if Colorado were not included.

I guess it's a positive sign that Biden is performing about the same in swing states as nationwide, though. No EC advantage for Trump.

[redjohn]

CO and MI are going to skew this number. Neither are swing states in this election. True "swing states" are WI, AZ, FL, NC, GA, TX, IA, OH, and PA. Don't really see the point in adding states that are essentially safe D to a swing state poll.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Biden isnt winning FL, NC and GA at the Prez race. They will go D at Senate and Gov races

Yes he is.

[Pollster]

Biden winning Hispanic/Latino 77% to 10%

[CellarDoor]

CO and MI are going to skew this number. Neither are swing states in this election. True "swing states" are WI, AZ, FL, NC, GA, TX, IA, OH, and PA. Don't really see the point in adding states that are essentially safe D to a swing state poll.

Agreed, but a result of +10 including them is still pretty good for Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its important to note that Trump is getting dangerously close to 50 the magic number he needs to win. So, a landslide in probably not in cards a 269 to 291 map is

[wbrocks67]

Biden winning Hispanic/Latino 77% to 10%

key.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Agree with the general sentiment that polls like this aren't very helpful, but considering Hillary won exactly one of these states in 2016, I'd say it's overall a pretty good result.

[Alben Barkley]

Agree with the general sentiment that polls like this aren't very helpful, but considering Hillary won exactly one of these states in 2016, I'd say it's overall a pretty good result.

Yeah. The bigger story is that the same sample was tied in 2016 (2 points more R than the nation, about how these states voted) and now Biden is leading it by 10.

[KaiserDave]

Post RBG by the way.

These polls are bad metrics, composite swing state polls are a bad metric.

[wbrocks67]

Biden winning blacks 96-3 as well...

[BobbieMac]

Its important to note that Trump is getting dangerously close to 50 the magic number he needs to win. So, a landslide in probably not in cards a 269 to 291 map is

Trump is nowhere near 50, in this poll, or any national or swing state polling.

A landslide is more likely than not, sorry, no horse race this time.

[BobbieMac]

Biden isnt winning FL, NC and GA at the Prez race. They will go D at Senate and Gov races

Biden is well ahead in Florida and North Carolina, will probably win in Georgia as well on a decent night.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Its important to note that Trump is getting dangerously close to 50 the magic number he needs to win. So, a landslide in probably not in cards a 269 to 291 map is

Nope. Biden will approach or exceed 400 evs, get back on the train before it's too late!

[BlueSwan]

I don't like battleground polls any more than anyone else, but a swing of 10 points is a swing of 10 points and you gotta love that.

[pbrower2a]

September 18-19, 2020 survey of 896 battleground voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin:

53% Biden
43% Trump

In the 2016 presidential election, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?

45% Trump
45% Clinton
10% Someone else/don't remember/didn't vote

https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/09/Battleground-Survey-Results.pdf

Specific state results would be even more desirable, but to the extent that PPP data is reliable, the only way in which this split is possible with Trump winning is if Biden is winning Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania with 80% or so of the vote  and the others all end up going to Trump by bare pluralities. Such is not happening. It is more likely that Biden wins every state in this list than that he loses everything but Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Any one of the other six will be enough.

Figure that many of those who did not vote in 2016 were too young to vote in 2016. Some of those people may have not yet reached their fourteenth birthday as of November 3, 2012. (Those of course would have been born in September, October, and the first three days of November 2004, in case you are shocked. That is a small number of voters in that category, and it would not swing the election in any state. But those born between late 2000 and early November 2004 could be enough.

Such a number signifies a collapse of non-fanatical support of Donald Trump. There is more to this trend than any age wave.

The Trump bid for re-election, if you want an analogy from the world of the bloody fang, is in the grasp of the death roll of an alligator.