All of these polls were conducted mostly before Ginsburg's death so we don't know how that's affecting any of these races. That being said...
- Disastrous poll for Doug Jones. I'm ready to move AL-Sen into safe R at this point, Jones only wins if there's a massive polling error.
- Average poll for Kelly (meaning disastrous for McSally)
- Not as good for Hickenlooper as I expected but not a good poll for Gardner either.
- Georgia-R continues to be Tilt D.
- Let's dispel this fiction that KY-Sen is winnable. It's not. (Not that most of y'all need to be told this, but resistance wine moms on my twitter feed most certainly do). Don't know that Booker would be doing much better if he had won but he wouldn't be lighting at least $40 million on fire (and at this point, probably twice that) either.
- Average to good poll for Peters. Race is losable but James is clearly disfavored.
- Awful poll for Tillis, race is starting to look likely D.
- Good poll for Harrison. SC-Sen is Tilt R. Surprised Harrison is getting the support of 8% of GOP voters in this poll; I guess moderates who voted for Graham the maverick in the past before he became... not that?
- By contrast, bad poll for MJ Hegar, though I doubt she'll lose by 6 points. Not seeing anything other than toplines for this poll so it's hard to say where the undecideds swing, but that's a lot of them for a senate race involving a 3 term incumbent.
Updated 538 senate model chances for Democrats after this and other polls are in this morning, with percents for Deluxe/Classic/Lite:
- AL: 35%/47%/17%
- AZ: 78%/79%/86%
- CO: 67%/70%/76%
- GA-R: 28%/32%/35%
- KY: 4%/6%/6%
- MI: 81%/82%/81%
- NC: 62%/71%/72%
- SC: 18%/20%/26%
- TX: 13%/16%/19%
