BC Election on October 24th

[DistingFlyer]

My prediction:

NDP - 55 (48%)
Lib - 30 (34%)
GP - 2 (15%)

This would be a record NDP vote (beating 1979's 45.2%), but not a record majority (38 of 55 in 1972 still wins there).

I frankly expected the big NDP lead to erode over the campaign, as people pushed against the early election call, but it's held up quite well (as the Liberal campaign was pretty awful).

[DistingFlyer]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

In both the last election and this one, the NDP swing was much heavier in Greater Vancouver (and in urban areas generally) than in the province as a whole - 2017 saw a 5% NDP swing in Vancouver, 1.4% on Vancouver Island and a 3% Liberal swing elsewhere. Not sure what the final figures will be this time, but with (so far) nine NDP gains in Greater Vancouver but only three on the rest of the mainland we may see something similar (excepting the pro-Liberal interior swing, of course).

[DistingFlyer]

Only one constituency left to finish counting (Fairview), so here's a regional breakdown - doubt it will change much:

Vancouver Island
NDP - 12 (50.9%)
GP - 2 (26.9%)
Lib - 0 (20.8%)
8.6% Lib-NDP, 5.3% GP-NDP

Greater Vancouver
NDP - 35 (52.4%)
Lib - 8 (34.0%)
GP - 0 (11.8%)
6.4% Lib-NDP

Rest of Mainland
Lib - 20 (42.6%)
NDP - 10 (37.4%)
GP - 0 (12.4%)
6.7% Lib-NDP


Although dead-on for my popular vote prediction & pretty close for the seat count, I was wrong about the swing: Vancouver saw a smaller NDP swing than the mainland did or even Vancouver Island (if you look at Liberal to NDP). Given the big NDP swing in Vancouver last time (5.4%) contrasting with a weak one on the Island (1.4%) and one against them on the mainland (2.9%) I suppose I should have guessed that the other regions might catch up a little to Vancouver this time out.

[DistingFlyer]

. . . and the final tally is done. Have updated the pdf file for BC elections now (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) - not only adding 2020's results, but also correcting some mistakes on the 2017 page.