BC Election on October 24th

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

Presumably they are known now?

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

Presumably they are known now?

Nope. Elections BC are taking their sweet @$$ time.

The list will be posted sometime today according to this: https://elections.bc.ca/provincial-elections/provincial-candidates/candidate-list/

[MaxQue]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

Presumably they are known now?

Elections BC says that there is a delay to the high numbers of nominations turned in yesterday and that the list will be finalised as soon as possible today (but it will be late for you, as there is 8 hours between UK and BC).

So far,
NDP: 85/87 (+13)
Liberal: 82/87 (+13)
Green: 69/87 (+28)
Libertarian: 23 (+9)
Conservative: 17 (+13)
Christian Heritage: 4 (+2)
Communist: 4 (+3)
Vision: 3
Rural BC: 1
Wexit: 1 (+1)
Independent: 21 (+16)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1312417972544311299?s=20

[MaxQue]

Final count:

NDP: 87/87
Liberal: 87/87
Green: 74/87
Libertarian: 25
Conservative: 19
Christian Heritage: 5
Communist: 5
Vision: 3
Wexit: 2
Rural BC: 1
Independent: 24

[DL]

I’d like to see a list of the 14 ridings with no Green on the ballot and also a list of 19 ridings with Conservatives on the ballot

[Hatman 🍁]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

[DL]

What about ridings with a Conservative but no Green?

[DC Al Fine]

What about ridings with a Conservative but no Green?

Three:

Boundary-Similkameen and the two Peace River ridings. First one will be interesting, the latter two will be Liberal snoozers.

[MaxQue]

I’d like to see a list of the 14 ridings with no Green on the ballot and also a list of 19 ridings with Conservatives on the ballot

No Green, by 2017 %
Richmond-Stevenson (12.9%)
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadow (12.4%)
Richmond South Centre (11.0%)
Surrey-Whalley (10.7%)
Boundary-Similkameen (10.2%)
North Coast (9.0%)
Nechaco Lakes (9.0%)
Surrey-Green Timbers (7.1%)
Surrey-Panorama (6.7%)
Stikine (no candidate since 2013)
Peace River North (no candidate since 2009)
Peace River South (no candidate since 2009)
Skeena (no candidate since 2009)

Conservative, by Liberal % lead in 2017
Peace River South (+52.0%)
Peace River North (+47.3%)
Langley East (25.4%)
Abbotsford West (+24.4%)
Abbotsford-Mission (+22.0%)
Vernon-Monashee (18.6%)
Kamloops-North Thompson (+17.8%)
Parksville-Qualicum (+17.2%)
Chilliwack (+16.0%)
Cariboo North (+15,4%; Con=6.0%)
Boundary-Similkameen (+10.1%)
Langley (+9.6%, Con=5.0%)
Surrey-Cloverdale (+9.4%)
Vancouver-False Creek (+2.6%)
Richmond-Queensborough (+0.7%, Con=3.5%)
Port Moody-Coquitlam (-7.5%)
North Island (-11.9%)
New Westminster (-26.1%)
Kootenay West (-35.3%)

[Benjamin Frank]

I’d like to see a list of the 14 ridings with no Green on the ballot and also a list of 19 ridings with Conservatives on the ballot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_British_Columbia_general_election

[mileslunn]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

[adma]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

It's also an urbanization/intensification/"cosmopolitanization" byproduct, particularly in a case like RSC (and maybe also last time, an Asian NDP candidate vs a non-Asian BC Lib incumbent)

Queensborough, of course, is a special case, as it's the New Westminster "thumb" of the riding that provides the core NDP base more than the Richmond part.

[Hatman 🍁]

Queensborough is larger than I thought (9k), so definitely enough to make that riding closer.

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

Fun fact: the Vietnamese in Ottawa are very pro-NDP, or at least are pro-Dewar. Paul Dewar's mother was instrumental in settling Vietnamese refugees after the war when she was mayor.  Walking through Chinatown (which is full full of Vietnamese restaurants) during the election, lots of storefronts would have Paul Dewar signs.

[DL]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

I’ve heard that the BC NDP tends to well with the Taiwanese Chinese community. The other thing to remember is that while Cubans in the US tend to be political refugees, that is rarely the case with recent immigrants to Canada from China. They generally did nit leave China due to an aversion to communism (and there is little tnat is communist about China anyways). They just wanted a better Life and many of them are actually quite defensive of the Chinese government and are not motivated by anti-comminism.

[mileslunn]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

I’ve heard that the BC NDP tends to well with the Taiwanese Chinese community. The other thing to remember is that while Cubans in the US tend to be political refugees, that is rarely the case with recent immigrants to Canada from China. They generally did nit leave China due to an aversion to communism (and there is little tnat is communist about China anyways). They just wanted a better Life and many of them are actually quite defensive of the Chinese government and are not motivated by anti-comminism.

I think its more those coming from Hong Kong not mainland China that lean right.  Hong Kong is quite capitalistic and strong anti-communist sentiment.

For Vietnamese in US, I think they now vote Democrat, but voted for Bush in 00 and 04.  A lot in Orange County which until recently was solidly Republican but now Democrat.  In US a lot of Cubans were also wealthy property owners who had property expropriated thus big reason they favour GOP.

For Chinese community could also be many are small business owners and past NDP, last so present didn't have too great a relation with small business community.

[DL]

And yet another poll shows a crushing lead for the BC NDP. This time it’s Angus Reid and it’s post the BC Liberal promise to eliminate the PST.

NDP - 49%
Libs - 31%
Greens - 14%
Other - 5%

How do you spell LANDSLIDE?

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-top-issues/

[mileslunn]

And yet another poll shows a crushing lead for the BC NDP. This time it’s Angus Reid and it’s post the BC Liberal promise to eliminate the PST.

NDP - 49%
Libs - 31%
Greens - 14%
Other - 5%

How do you spell LANDSLIDE?

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-top-issues/

I think PST cut did more harm than good.  While election 18 days away, I don't see how BC Liberals can win.  Their real goal should be to try and keep their seat count above 30 seats which is still very doable and in particular focus on MLAs who weren't part of last government as that will improve their odds in 2024 which is really what the goal, is be a viable party to win in 2024.

[DL]

In 1972 the NDP beat the old Social Credit Party (which was more or less reincarnated as the BC Liberals) 39% to 30% in the popular vote but beat them in seats 38 to 10! But back then the NDP vote was more evenly spread across the province so they were able to run the tables in the interior. This time even in a worse case scenario for the BC Liberals it’s hard to see them getting less than 25 seats.

[MaxQue]

With that poll, on uniform swing, we get NDP 61, Lib 25, Grn 1

[adma]

In 1972 the NDP beat the old Social Credit Party (which was more or less reincarnated as the BC Liberals) 39% to 30% in the popular vote but beat them in seats 38 to 10! But back then the NDP vote was more evenly spread across the province so they were able to run the tables in the interior. This time even in a worse case scenario for the BC Liberals it’s hard to see them getting less than 25 seats.

And there was also 7 seats for the provincial Libs and PCs in 1972; whereas now the "non-socialist-horde" vote tends to be united in one camp (and the Greens don't count as either)

[DL]

and now Research Co has released their second poll of the campaign and they have the NDP lead increasing from 7 points when the election was called to 12 points now

BC NDP 48% (+4)
BC Liberals 36% (-1)
BC Green Party 13% (=)
BC Conservative Party 2% (-3)

Once again, the theory that a collapse of the BC Conservatives would benefit the Liberals has been exploded - if anything its the NDP that has picked up from the BC Cons

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/08/bcelxn2020-october/

[mileslunn]

Just got an Angus-Reid survey so they are in the field, but not sure if public or for private clients.

Anyways, BC Liberals won't say it but unless Wilkinson delivers a knockout, I don't see how they can win this.  Their goal should be to try and hold as many seats possible so they have more choices for replacement of Wilkinson and thus improve their chances for 2024.

[DL]

What’s the story behind Wilkinson ever having won the BC Liberal leadership in the first place? What could possibly possess ANYONE to vote for such a totally repulsive politician who is so devoid of any appeal to voters. What the hell were BC Liberal members thinking? It’s not like they didn’t have plenty of alternatives in that contest.

[warandwar]

Needs more Lotuslander