BC Election on October 24th

[CumbrianLefty]

One more little “x” factor is that tomorrow is the deadline to nominate candidates and it looks like the Greens are already conceding that they will have far less than a full slate

Possible good news for the NDP then?

[lilTommy]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

If we are looking at the Kelowna-Okanagan area, based on 2017, the NDP targets should be:

->Boundary-Similkameen - 32% with no Conservative candidate, a low BCGreen vote. If the Cons runs here that will eat into BCL and the BCNDP already polling high.
->Vernon-Monashee - 29% no BCC, high BCGreen vote (21%). If the BCGreen tanks some, and would likely shift to the NDP could be a target.
https://338canada.com/bc/map.htm - predicts only Boundary-Similkameen as a BCNDP pick-up. As always take that as you will.

Everything else is plus 50% for the BCL, should be one of the only strong areas for BCLs.

[DL]

and we have another poll showing a massive NDP lead. This time by Leger:

BC NDP - 47%
BC Libs - 31%
Greens - 12%
BC Cons - 9%

Of course since the Greens and especially the BC Cons will run less than a full slate - their support is likely going to be a lot lower.

https://vancouversun.com/news/b-c-ndp-leads-liberals-by-significant-margin-early-election-poll-finds

[Hatman 🍁]

One more little “x” factor is that tomorrow is the deadline to nominate candidates and it looks like the Greens are already conceding that they will have far less than a full slate

Possible good news for the NDP then?

Probably.

[mileslunn]

and we have another poll showing a massive NDP lead. This time by Leger:

BC NDP - 47%
BC Libs - 31%
Greens - 12%
BC Cons - 9%

Of course since the Greens and especially the BC Cons will run less than a full slate - their support is likely going to be a lot lower.

https://vancouversun.com/news/b-c-ndp-leads-liberals-by-significant-margin-early-election-poll-finds

If that is the case probably two party.  NDP may after all get over 50% then if Greens lack full slate, while BC Liberals maybe 40% although even that far from guaranteed if no BC Conservatives.  Definitely appears backlash has faded and NDP in good shape.  Things will probably tighten as usual, but while nothing is certain, unless Horgan has a massive screw up, I think he will get his majority.

Tough part though will be next four years, but at least with majority has more flexibility.  For BC Liberals, their goal should be to focus on holding their open seats as well as ridings with rookies in 2017.  Reason I say that as party has much better shot in 2024 if they chose a leader who wasn't part of past administration than one who was.

[DC Al Fine]

Fringe party candidates thus far per Wiki:

Conservative: 7
Libertarian: 6
Communist: 5
Christian Heritage: 2
Plus a smattering of one offs.

The Conservative resurgence decidedly did not pan out. Also I see the Greens only have ~45. Not a good sign.

[MaxQue]

Fringe party candidates thus far per Wiki:

Conservative: 7
Libertarian: 6
Communist: 5
Christian Heritage: 2
Plus a smattering of one offs.

The Conservative resurgence decidedly did not pan out. Also I see the Greens only have ~45. Not a good sign.

The official fillings are even more barren (except for Libertarians).

NDP: 64/87
Liberal: 62/87
Green: 26/87
Libertarian: 11
Conservative: 3
Christian Heritage: 2
Vision: 1
Independent: 1

[DC Al Fine]

Fringe party candidates thus far per Wiki:

Conservative: 7
Libertarian: 6
Communist: 5
Christian Heritage: 2
Plus a smattering of one offs.

The Conservative resurgence decidedly did not pan out. Also I see the Greens only have ~45. Not a good sign.

The official fillings are even more barren (except for Libertarians).

NDP: 64/87
Liberal: 62/87
Green: 26/87
Libertarian: 11
Conservative: 3
Christian Heritage: 2
Vision: 1
Independent: 1

Wait, isn't the filing deadline tomorrow?! And the Greens only have a quarter slate? That's terrible for a party trying to be a major player. I wonder if the Libs or NDP will miss a full slate as well?

EDIT: I noticed there are no Social Credit candidates this time

[DL]

The NDP has candidates in all 87 ridings listed on their website...there is always a lag before Elections BC officially certifies candidates and a flurry of last minute qualifications. I'll bet that the NDP and Libs end up with full slates and that the Greens end up with 65-70 candidates and the BC Cons with 15 or so

[Benjamin Frank]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

Huh. Why was Victoria so conservative?

I am guessing back then, lots of traditional British immigrants as well as back then civil servants weren't reliably left wing like today never mind you now have larger university population and a strong environmentalist movement you lacked back then.

And also back then, there was a stronger "Red Tory" element (even within the provincial Socreds, at least by the Bill Bennett years), while the NDP was seen as more of a rough-hewn union/blue-collar force...

Charles Barber was the first New Democrat elected in the 1970s.  Victoria was a duel member riding back then and he won one of the two positions in 1975.  This was likely partly due to the NDP bringing in a bunch of civil servants.

of course, Charles Barber didn't work out too well.

[adma]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

If we are looking at the Kelowna-Okanagan area, based on 2017, the NDP targets should be:

->Boundary-Similkameen - 32% with no Conservative candidate, a low BCGreen vote. If the Cons runs here that will eat into BCL and the BCNDP already polling high.
->Vernon-Monashee - 29% no BCC, high BCGreen vote (21%). If the BCGreen tanks some, and would likely shift to the NDP could be a target.
https://338canada.com/bc/map.htm - predicts only Boundary-Similkameen as a BCNDP pick-up. As always take that as you will.

Everything else is plus 50% for the BCL, should be one of the only strong areas for BCLs.

One additional reflection on Kelowna which plays on that 2015 federal result: it might be historically barren for the NDP, but it's not necessarily barren for the "non-right", at least in the vestigial "Judi Tyabji populist" sense.  Or in UK terms, it's the kind of place which'd have a certain "Con-LD marginal" element (at least in terms of the Blair years)

[Benjamin Frank]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

If we are looking at the Kelowna-Okanagan area, based on 2017, the NDP targets should be:

->Boundary-Similkameen - 32% with no Conservative candidate, a low BCGreen vote. If the Cons runs here that will eat into BCL and the BCNDP already polling high.
->Vernon-Monashee - 29% no BCC, high BCGreen vote (21%). If the BCGreen tanks some, and would likely shift to the NDP could be a target.
https://338canada.com/bc/map.htm - predicts only Boundary-Similkameen as a BCNDP pick-up. As always take that as you will.

Everything else is plus 50% for the BCL, should be one of the only strong areas for BCLs.

One additional reflection on Kelowna which plays on that 2015 federal result: it might be historically barren for the NDP, but it's not necessarily barren for the "non-right", at least in the vestigial "Judi Tyabji populist" sense.  Or in UK terms, it's the kind of place which'd have a certain "Con-LD marginal" element (at least in terms of the Blair years)

Kelowna is a fairly big city of about 140,000 people and over 170,000 if the suburb West Kelowna is added in.    Urban areas tend to be more left leaning.

On the other hand, many of the religious people there tend to be conservative Protestant work ethic types.

So, while it's certainly come a long way from being a 'Backward Town' I think it's more likely Chilliwack would start voting for the NDP before Kelowna ever does.

[DL]

In fact Chilliwack went NDP in a byelection in 2011

[DL]

FWIW BC continues to be doing remarkably well on the Covid front. Only 82 new cases today and the lowest per capita rate of Covid in North America. That can’t hurt if you are John Horgan

[Benjamin Frank]

In fact Chilliwack went NDP in a byelection in 2011

Byelections don't count.

However, the CCF held Kelowna and area federally from 1948 to 1957.  Owen Lewis (O L) Jones was the M.P, and he, at least fit the profile, of the protestant work ethic types.  He had been the mayor of Kelowna and owned at least two furniture stores.  On paper, a total chamber of commerce type.

Kelowna has grown significantly in population over the last 40 years or so as has West Kelowna. When the band The Grapes of Wrath wrote the song 'Backward Town' about Kelowna in 1987, the population of Kelowna from the census in 1986 was 61,513.

[Benjamin Frank]

One point I remembered later on the seemingly anomalous win of the Federal Liberals in Kelowna in 2015: my understanding is that the Liberal candidate, Stephen Fuhr, was a relatively high profile long time former Conservative Party supporter, and many of the voters in 2015 shared his defacto view of "I didn't leave the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party left me."

[adma]

One point I remembered later on the seemingly anomalous win of the Federal Liberals in Kelowna in 2015: my understanding is that the Liberal candidate, Stephen Fuhr, was a relatively high profile long time former Conservative Party supporter, and many of the voters in 2015 shared his defacto view of "I didn't leave the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party left me."

And also, the Greens stood down on his behalf.

But I still stand by my "Con/LD marginal" point re Kelowna (whereas in UK terms, Kamloops and Prince George would have more of a traditional Con/Lab dynamic)

[DL]

Another day another poll. Today it’s Mainstreet’s and they are a phone based poll and the other a have been online. Similar results:

BC NDP - 45%
BC Libs - 34%
Greens - 16%
BC Con - 2%
Other - 3%

Note that the collapse of the Conservatives does not seem to help the BC Liberals...

https://qc125.com/proj/2020-10-01-Mainstreet-BC.pdf

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the final candidate scores?

[DC Al Fine]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

[MaxQue]

What are the final candidate scores?

Not closed, and BC only updates at the end of a day.

Right now:
NDP: 72/87 (+8)
Liberal: 69/87 (+7)
Green: 41/87 (+15)
Libertarian: 14 (+3)
Conservative: 4 (+1)
Christian Heritage: 2
Vision: 1
Rural BC: 1 (+1)
Communist: 1 (+1)
Independent: 5 (+4)

[Continential]

Why does Vision have a provincial branch when they couldn’t get anyone in Vancouver?

[MaxQue]

Why does Vision have a provincial branch when they couldn’t get anyone in Vancouver?

Vision Vancouver isn't BC Vision. It's a Surrey based party (through their only candidate is in Abbotsford) which seems to be a center-right immigrant party. Diversity, fiscal conservatism, good healthcare and education.

[Hatman 🍁]

Note that the collapse of the Conservatives does not seem to help the BC Liberals...

A bit disingeneous. Every recent poll that had the Conservatives/Other at 10%+ had the Liberals sub-30, and nearly every poll with the Conservatives/Other at <10% have the Liberals above 30.

[DL]

Note that the collapse of the Conservatives does not seem to help the BC Liberals...

A bit disingeneous. Every recent poll that had the Conservatives/Other at 10%+ had the Liberals sub-30, and nearly every poll with the Conservatives/Other at <10% have the Liberals above 30.

Of course it would be helpful to compare polls from the same pollster but Ipsos and Leger were both in field at exactly the same time. Leger had the BC Cons at 9% while Ipsos had "Other" at 4% and didn't include the BC Cons as an option at all. Ipsos had the BC Liberals at 33 instead of 31 and had the NDP at 51% instead of 47% - so in other words when you drop the BC Cons as an option - the gap between the NDP and Liberals grows from 16 to 18