GA - GBAO/Warnock for Georgia (D): Loeffler leads Warnock (previously Republican lockout)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://warnockforgeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Warnock-For-Georgia-Polling-Memo-092120.pdf

July 6-9
Edit: also of 600 likely voters according to 538
Collins 26%
Loeffler 21%
Lieberman 19%
Warnock 16%
Tarver 9%

September 14-16
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Loeffler 29% (+8)
Warnock 25% (+9)
Collins 19% (-7)
Lieberman 11% (-8)
Tarver 5% (-5)

[ultraviolet]

What’s happening to Collins?

[Horus]

What’s happening to Collins?

Loeffler is buying the seat.

[wbrocks67]

Can't imagine it's good news for Loeffler if Warnock gets 2nd.

[Horus]

Can't imagine it's good news for Loeffler if Warnock gets 2nd.

Oh certainly not. Turnout in the sticks would be low either way because she's not viewed as sufficiently pro trump. But if I were Loeffler I'd most definitely rather be facing a dud like Lieberman.

[Skye]

What’s happening to Collins?

Loeffler has been spending quite a bit of money apparently.

A shame they didn't ask about the runoff.

[tagimaucia]

Do people closely following GA politics think that Loeffler's sparring with the players of her WNBA team over BLM has been a major factor in her rise in the polls?  If so, I find that very depressing, but knowing Georgia Republicans, I could see it being the case.

[Lambsbread]

Lieberman should drop out.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Lieberman and Tarver are both selfish pricks and are not going to drop out.

I know national Democrats are busy but they should really be putting in the legwork to avoid a lockout in this race, which mainly involves making it clear to Georgia Democrats that Warnock is the nominee.

After the election, Democrats are going to be energized as hell, and this race will be the only possible venue for channeling that enthusiasm, just like the Ossoff race in 2017.  Loeffler isn't a particularly popular Senator, and she's very vulnerable to attacks on her corrupt dealings.  Warnock is a good fit for the state.  I could definitely see Democrats flipping this seat if Warnock can just make it through the jungle primary.

[Hope For A New Era]

Lieberman and Tarver are both selfish pricks and are not going to drop out.

I know national Democrats are busy but they should really be putting in the legwork to avoid a lockout in this race, which mainly involves making it clear to Georgia Democrats that Warnock is the nominee.

After the election, Democrats are going to be energized as hell, and this race will be the only possible venue for channeling that enthusiasm, just like the Ossoff race in 2017.  Loeffler isn't a particularly popular Senator, and she's very vulnerable to attacks on her corrupt dealings.  Warnock is a good fit for the state.  I could definitely see Democrats flipping this seat if Warnock can just make it through the jungle primary.

I watched a few ads and videos of him. He's an excellent speaker. I suppose that shouldn't be a surprise given his profession.

He really is a great fit for the state, as much as Abrams if not more. Drive up black turnout without scaring away the suburbs, maybe even peel off a few highly religious voters who normally vote Republican (the few Evangelicals that seem to be coming away from Trump a bit, perhaps?).

[wbrocks67]

Lieberman and Tarver are both selfish pricks and are not going to drop out.

I know national Democrats are busy but they should really be putting in the legwork to avoid a lockout in this race, which mainly involves making it clear to Georgia Democrats that Warnock is the nominee.

After the election, Democrats are going to be energized as hell, and this race will be the only possible venue for channeling that enthusiasm, just like the Ossoff race in 2017.  Loeffler isn't a particularly popular Senator, and she's very vulnerable to attacks on her corrupt dealings.  Warnock is a good fit for the state.  I could definitely see Democrats flipping this seat if Warnock can just make it through the jungle primary.

I watched a few ads and videos of him. He's an excellent speaker. I suppose that shouldn't be a surprise given his profession.

He really is a great fit for the state, as much as Abrams if not more. Drive up black turnout without scaring away the suburbs, maybe even peel off a few highly religious voters who normally vote Republican (the few Evangelicals that seem to be coming away from Trump a bit, perhaps?).

This is why I don't think Rs want a runoff. If it's Loeffler/Warnock and Ossoff/Perdue in the runoff come January, I honestly don't think we're gonna see the "low D turnout" that everyone talks about with GA runoffs

[Adam Griffin]

Do people closely following GA politics think that Loeffler's sparring with the players of her WNBA team over BLM has been a major factor in her rise in the polls?  If so, I find that very depressing, but knowing Georgia Republicans, I could see it being the case.

The internals that don't get released as PR stunts don't show Loeffler in a good position relative to Collins, and I'll just leave it at that. I'm fully expecting her to go down in flames in November.


Every political bone in my Georgian body says that Warnock will have no issue making the runoff and that these polls are just garbage, but they keep coming. The fact that Warnock's campaign releases an internal showing them with just a quarter of the vote and barely 60% of declared Democratic support is a bit mystifying unless they think it'll motivate supporters to donate/work harder...?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't know what to think of this race. Feels like there's one side intensely believing in "R's will win the runoff", while the other side is just as intensely for "Bad news for the GOP if Warnock makes the runoff"

[Landslide Lyndon]

What’s happening to Collins?

Loeffler has been spending quite a bit of money apparently.

A shame they didn't ask about the runoff.

She has also become a full-blown racist mouth-breather, cutting into Collins' base.

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know what to think of this race. Feels like there's one side intensely believing in "R's will win the runoff", while the other side is just as intensely for "Bad news for the GOP if Warnock makes the runoff"

It seems very difficult for the Dems to win the runoff, but Loeffler is such a weak candidate that if she is in the runoff and the Democrats aren't shut out, they have to at least have a chance.

Clearly Warnock is not a particularly strong candidate or he would be doing a better job of clearing the field, though.