IBD/TIPP: Biden +6
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP: Biden +6  (Read 552 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 21, 2020, 10:17:12 AM »
Sep 16-19, 962 LV, MoE: 3.3%

Biden 50%
Trump 44%

RV
Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 43% (+2)

https://www.investors.com/politics/joe-biden-leads-president-trump-race-tightens-ibd-tipp-election-poll/
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 10:40:52 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2020, 11:20:08 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
Changes with August 29-September 1 poll amongst registered voters

Amongst LVs
Another candidate 2%
Not sure 5%

Edit: the MoE is for their full sample of adults.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 10:48:35 AM »
Did the 8/29-9/01 poll have LV?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 10:52:30 AM »

No, this is their first.
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kireev
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM »
Based on this Biden's lead should be higher than that.

Trump voters in 2016 now back him, 86%-11%. Clinton voters back Biden, 92%-3%.

Meanwhile, Americans who voted for another candidate in 2016 back Biden, 65%-4%. Plus, those who sat out the 2016 election or are newly eligible to vote support Biden, 57%-28%.

Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.
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Rand
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2020, 11:00:01 AM »
Once again, #BidenAt50.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2020, 11:00:42 AM »
Quote from: kireev on September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.

It was -- their final poll had him winning the popular vote by about 2%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2020, 11:02:02 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on September 21, 2020, 11:00:42 AM
Quote from: kireev on September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.

It was -- their final poll had him winning the popular vote by about 2%.

And then they had the balls to say they got it right after election day.
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kireev
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 11:05:00 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on September 21, 2020, 11:00:42 AM
Quote from: kireev on September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.

It was -- their final poll had him winning the popular vote by about 2%.

To get to Biden's 5-6% lead they had to have Trump at about +6 or +7 in their 2016 sample.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 11:06:31 AM »
Quote from: kireev on September 21, 2020, 11:05:00 AM
To get to Biden's 5-6% lead they had to have Trump at about +6 or +7 in their 2016 sample.

Oh, I see what you mean. Sorry, I can't read.
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