ME: Suffolk - Biden +12
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  ME: Suffolk - Biden +12
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Author Topic: ME: Suffolk - Biden +12  (Read 1360 times)
Granite City
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« on: September 21, 2020, 09:54:48 AM »

September 17-20, 500 LV
MoE: +/-4.4%

Biden: 51%
Trump: 39%

Not on 538 yet but found here: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/21/metro/collins-trails-gideon-maine-senate-race-according-new-suffolkglobe-poll/?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter

ME-02 is apparently a tie: "Biden is even effectively tied with Trump in Maine’s vast, rural Second Congressional District, where Trump prevailed in 2016, earning him one of Maine’s four electoral votes."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 09:56:33 AM »

Crosstabs here: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7214149/MaineCrosstabs.pdf.  Looks like Biden has a very narrow lead in ME-02.  ETA: it's 47-45.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 09:56:48 AM »

Hard to see Trump winning ME-02 with these numbers
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 09:59:02 AM »

Safe D, I've seen enough. We had multiple polls from ME showing Biden ahead by double digits. He'll win ME-2 on top with these numbers. Collins will do better than Trump, but this could simply be too much to overcome, giving that there will be less ticket splitting.
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Gracile
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 10:05:33 AM »

Hard to see Trump winning ME-02 with these numbers

ME-02 voted more than 12% to the right of the state in 2016 FWIW, so it's certainly still possible. That said, it's obviously very close if this is the topline.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2020, 10:12:03 AM »

So Biden has likely put away Maine now- consistent double digit leads.  Wasn't expecting that at all. 
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2020, 10:31:00 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2020, 12:47:16 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

First ballot:

Statewide
Biden 51%
Trump 39%
Refused 1%
Jorgensen (L) 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Fuente (A) 0% (but some voters)
Hawkins (G) 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 7%

ME01
267 likely voters

Biden 54%
Trump 33%
Refused 2%
Jorgensen (L) 1%
Fuente (A) 0% (but some voters)
Hawkins (G) 0% (but some voters)
Other 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 9%

ME02
233 likely voters

Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Refused 1%
Jorgensen (L) 0% (but some voters)
Other 0% (but some voters)
Fuente (A) 0% (no voters)
Hawkins (G) 0% (no voters)
Undecided 6%

With second and third choices for non-Biden/Trump supporters (but not for people who selected 'undecided' or 'refused'):

Statewide
Biden 51%
Trump 39%
Refused 1%
Fuente (A) 0% (but some voters)
Hawkins (G) 0% (but some voters)
Jorgensen (L) 0% (no voters)
Other 0% (no  voters)
Undecided 8%

ME01
267 likely voters

Biden 55%
Trump 34%
Refused 2%
Fuente (A) 0% (but some voters)
Jorgensen (L) 0% (no voters)
Hawkins (G) 0% (no voters)
Other 0% (no voters)
Undecided 9%

ME02
233 likely voters

Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Refused 1%
Hawkins (G) 0% (but some voters)
Fuente (A) 0% (no voters)
Jorgensen (L) 0% (no voters)
Other 0% (no voters)
Undecided 6%
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2020, 10:35:05 AM »

Wow! Looks like Maine is a D state for a while yet.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 10:36:26 AM »

So Biden has likely put away Maine now- consistent double digit leads.  Wasn't expecting that at all. 

Makes one wonder what upstate New York will look like.
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n1240
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 11:14:25 AM »

This ME-02 info isn't as valuable as NYTimes/Siena since here it just seems to be a crosstab with a small sample, whereas NYTimes/Siena oversampled ME-02 and weighted specifically to the district.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2020, 11:42:32 AM »

Maine is Likely, if not, Safe D.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 11:53:29 AM »


I think ME-AL is basically safe now, yeah.

ME-02 is super competitive, though.
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redjohn
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 12:05:03 PM »

Well, Trump's previous hopes of a competitive Maine are over. Biden probably wins by around this margin, which makes me think Trump doesn't have a chance in NH.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 12:12:50 PM »

Well, Trump's previous hopes of a competitive Maine are over. Biden probably wins by around this margin, which makes me think Trump doesn't have a chance in NH.
He doesn't. According to Civiqs, Trump's net approval in New Hampshire is 38% (net disapproval is 58%)
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 12:39:48 PM »

With Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota Maine seemingly gone, what's the next state folks will be paranoid about Trump winning? Nevada? New Mexico?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2020, 12:47:23 PM »

I've edited out second choices by accounting for third choices as that is available for the presidential (but not the senatorial) race.
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redjohn
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2020, 12:47:32 PM »

With Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota Maine seemingly gone, what's the next state folks will be paranoid about Trump winning? Nevada? New Mexico?

It will 100% be Nevada. A low-rated pollster probably releases a result like Biden+2 four days before the election, leading Nate Silver to comment on Trump's "decent shot" of winning the state because of the white working class voters there, Biden's chances in NV plummet on betting markets, only for Biden to win NV by near-double digits in the final margin.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 08:56:14 PM »

New Poll: Maine President by Suffolk University on 2020-09-20

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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