GA-University of Georgia: Tied

[VAR]

Sep 11-20, 1150 LV, MoE: 4%

Trump 47%
Biden 47%

Trump approval: 48/51 (-3)
Kemp COVID approval: 50/47 (+3)

https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-race-for-president-senate-contests-in-georgia-too-close-to-call/FCIZO2M5ZNH2XAQBRMAXJLFQVE/

[wbrocks67]

Yep, GA a total tossup as expected.

Good news for Biden is that both are getting about 95% of their base, but Biden is up by 13% among Indies.

Also LOL @ Trump with only 5% of the black vote.

[Podgy the Bear]

This is a great readout for Biden with 6 weeks to go.  The television media here in GA has been all Trump, but that's set to change soon with big buys from the Biden campaign in the coming weeks.

At the Senate level, looks like Perdue continues to have the edge.  But if he doesn't make it to 50, the runoffs for the two Senate seats become that much more critical and dependent on turnout.

As for the special, Warnock is getting good exposure with excellent ads.  I don't know what Matt Lieberman is doing in this race.  He's a spoiler just like his father.  And like his father, he needs to get out and fade away.

[wbrocks67]

This is a great readout for Biden with 6 weeks to go.  The television media here in GA has been all Trump, but that's set to change soon with big buys from the Biden campaign in the coming weeks.

At the Senate level, looks like Perdue continues to have the edge.  But if he doesn't make it to 50, the runoffs for the two Senate seats become that much more critical and dependent on turnout.

As for the special, Warnock is getting good exposure with excellent ads.  I don't know what Matt Lieberman is doing in this race.  He's a spoiler just like his father.  And like his father, he needs to get out and fade away.

At this rate I truly believe both races will likely go to a runoff, which could get VERY interesting

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For the AJC
Changes with February 24-March 2 poll

Biden 47% (+4)
Trump 47% (-4)
Jorgensen 1% (not previously listed)
Undecided 4% (+3)

Neither previously at 4% and refused previously at 0%

Edit: corrected the (pre-rounding) swings.

[tagimaucia]

Probably too tiny a sample to mean anything, but I dug down into the undecideds in this poll out of curiosity and they are:

• Majority Black
• Majority self-described "Moderates"
• Majority below 50k in income

[SnowLabrador]

Probably too tiny a sample to mean anything, but I dug down into the undecideds in this poll out of curiosity and they are:

• Majority Black
• Majority self-described "Moderates"
• Majority below 50k in income

All three of those would seem to favor Biden. As to the Senate race, I think people are overestimating the chances of it going to a runoff; Hazel probably won't get much more than 1%, and he's the only third-party candidate on the ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Probably too tiny a sample to mean anything, but I dug down into the undecideds in this poll out of curiosity and they are:

• Majority Black
• Majority self-described "Moderates"
• Majority below 50k in income

All three of those would seem to favor Biden. As to the Senate race, I think people are overestimating the chances of it going to a runoff; Hazel probably won't get much more than 1%, and he's the only third-party candidate on the ballot.

Perdue hasn't topped 50% in any poll. It's pretty easy to see a scenario where it's like Perdue 48, Ossoff 47, and others/write-ins 4-5%.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden's finally getting some decent Georgia polls.

[Adam Griffin]

Probably too tiny a sample to mean anything, but I dug down into the undecideds in this poll out of curiosity and they are:

• Majority Black
• Majority self-described "Moderates"
• Majority below 50k in income

All three of those would seem to favor Biden. As to the Senate race, I think people are overestimating the chances of it going to a runoff; Hazel probably won't get much more than 1%, and he's the only third-party candidate on the ballot.

Yeah, Democrats have almost always won self-identified "moderates" in Georgia (even when we were getting shellacked). Obama '08 won them by by 17, Clinton by 19, Abrams by 26. "Independents" are a completely different story, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have looked at Trump's approvals he is at 48 to 52 approvals. GA isnt a swing state at the Prez level.but like NC, it can split their votes for Prez and Senate

[tagimaucia]

I have looked at Trump's approvals he is at 48 to 52 approvals. GA isnt a swing state at the Prez level.but like NC, it can split their votes for Prez and Senate

How do you logically get from a) Trump is at -4 net approval in GA to b) GA won't be a swing state?

[redjohn]

State is a clear tossup. Both candidates can win here if they invest and put the work in. I hope Biden and Harris make some appearances to amp up excitement.

[pbrower2a]

I said of Iowa that if Iowa is tied, then Wisconsin is gone as a Trump chance. Similarly, if Georgia is tied , then Trump loses one or both of Florida and North Carolina.

With numbers like those in Georgia and Iowa, the Trump campaign seems to be like a rat in the grasp of the horrible jaws of a rat terrier.   

[BlueSwan]

I said of Iowa that if Iowa is tied, then Wisconsin is gone as a Trump chance. Similarly, if Georgia is tied , then Trump loses one or both of Florida and North Carolina.

With numbers like those in Georgia and Iowa, the Trump campaign seems to be like a rat in the grasp of the horrible jaws of a rat terrier.   

I buy the Iowa-Wisconsin link. Not sure that I buy the Georgia links. Florida is just its own beast and who the hell knows about North Carolina. Everybody has expected it to trend left forever and very little seems to happen.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

SCOTUS bump!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A tied GA poll 6 weeks before the election not even getting 2 pages of discussion tells you all you need to know about the state of the 2020 race

[WD]

A tied GA poll 6 weeks before the election not even getting 2 pages of discussion tells you all you need to know about the state of the 2020 race

But it’s just not there yet.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A tied GA poll 6 weeks before the election not even getting 2 pages of discussion tells you all you need to know about the state of the 2020 race

But it’s just not there yet.

And even if it was, Kemp's voter suppression will make sure any Democrat will lose by +2 no matter what (Congressional races inexplicitly don't count).


EDIT: That was sarcasm, Horus

[Adam Griffin]

I said of Iowa that if Iowa is tied, then Wisconsin is gone as a Trump chance. Similarly, if Georgia is tied , then Trump loses one or both of Florida and North Carolina.

With numbers like those in Georgia and Iowa, the Trump campaign seems to be like a rat in the grasp of the horrible jaws of a rat terrier.   

I buy the Iowa-Wisconsin link. Not sure that I buy the Georgia links. Florida is just its own beast and who the hell knows about North Carolina. Everybody has expected it to trend left forever and very little seems to happen.

Yeah. Florida is off in its own fantasyland as far as trends are concerned. North Carolina in relation to GA - measured from '08 - had a considerably larger number of rural, white and/or conservative Ds to hemorrhage, a larger overall white population and has seen its black population only grow by half as much as Georgia's over the past decade. This is why it's been stuck in limbo and likely why GA will surpass it D-wise (if not in this election, then very soon).