Republicans’ problems with young voters go far deeper than Trump

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Even if there is a slight trend among 18-29 year olds, what matters is that these 18-29 year olds are not the same 18-29 year olds from 2008. Most of them are now in the 30-44 range and so you have two generations back to back that vote basically the same way.

Now compare that to early X and late boomers who vote Republican and then Seniors who also vote Republican (though perhaps less so this time).

When you take a +12 group out and replace it with anything less than +12, that creates a trend towards the other party.

If you are replacing a +12 with a -12, that is a cause for deep concern in terms of electoral prospects. The places where this is going to have the biggest impact is in those places with heavy racial polarization and also simultaneously heavy age polarization among the white voters as well. These places will trend the most and then will lack the elasticity necessary to be  flipped backed and most of these places are in the South.

Its a problem nationwide of course, but it is a severe problem in states like TX, GA, FL, NC and yes MS.

Frankly this is a similar demographic time bomb facing the GOP now, that the GOP faced right at the start of the Great Depression, and it just happens to be centered in the GOP base region, the sunbelt. It wasn't just the Depression that made things so dire for the GOP in that period, you had that coupled with as a motivating factor behind the turnout, loyalty and support for the Democrats among the younger, larger group of white ethnics who were in a position to numerical outnumber older Yankee white Republicans.

In elections like 1942 and 1946 when the older voters could dominate and/or things were bad economically like in 1946, the latter group could swing an election and flip enough seats to win the Senate and House. Someone like Ike, could transcend these age barriers because a lot of those young guys were in the military and Ike was the allied commander on the Western Theater in Europe and was very popular on both sides. But with a fire lit under them like in 1948 by the unions or in 1958 because of the recession, you saw the the Democratic performance increase to a point where 46 style elections became impossible, without a regional breakout.

[Alben Barkley]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

HW was a more successful president than Reagan in half the time.

Although I guess not getting re-elected could be taken as a sign that he "failed."

[OSR stands with Israel]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

HW was a more successful president than Reagan in half the time.

Although I guess not getting re-elected could be taken as a sign that he "failed."

While HW was a great president he was not more successful than Reagan lol . Reagan got much more of his agenda passed and was clearly the more influential president and Reagan style neoliberalism dominated poltics for 28 years(1980-2008) thanks to Reagan

[Badger]

I'm close to getting Bingo in a number of directions, please let's finish this conversation.

"I'm a libertarian! I'm a libertarian!"

Has sampled 31 flavors of boot

Hey we got the burn your property in the other thread.

You are usually good at this, Dule, but most of this is too wordy to pack zing.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm close to getting Bingo in a number of directions, please let's finish this conversation.

I can smell the smug neckbeard who wrote this. It just reeks of weed and cheetos.

Perhaps the biggest problem with it from the start is that both leftists and libertarians are wrong (and often both are unbearably smug). Social liberalism takes the good parts of both and none of the stupidity of either. So watching leftists and libertarians argue, it's just funny because there are no winners there.

For instance, yeah there may be an "economic consensus," but it's closer to, like, Bill Clinton than it is to Ron Paul or something. Libertarians have some really crazy fringe economic ideas that are in no way accepted by mainstream economists any more than Marxism is. Plus, that consensus has changed over time; for example, economists are increasingly abandoning the oversimplistic idea that "humans are rational" (itself a pretty absurd assumption on its face that has constantly been undermined by psychology, a science at least as hard as economics) and turning to ideas like "behavioral economics" to account for that.

[Alben Barkley]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

HW was a more successful president than Reagan in half the time.

Although I guess not getting re-elected could be taken as a sign that he "failed."

While HW was a great president he was not more successful than Reagan lol . Reagan got much more of his agenda passed and was clearly the more influential president and Reagan style neoliberalism dominated poltics for 28 years(1980-2008) thanks to Reagan

HW was better in terms of foreign policy, and while Reagan got more of his agenda passed in part because he had more time, HW still got some noteworthy bipartisan legislation passed like the ADA that has held up better over time.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

HW was a more successful president than Reagan in half the time.

Although I guess not getting re-elected could be taken as a sign that he "failed."

The key point was "objective measures" implying objective measures as perceived by the general population. Since Bush broke his promise on taxes and got defeated, this creates an image of failure on the right before you even get into discussions about the left.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

HW was a more successful president than Reagan in half the time.

Although I guess not getting re-elected could be taken as a sign that he "failed."

While HW was a great president he was not more successful than Reagan lol . Reagan got much more of his agenda passed and was clearly the more influential president and Reagan style neoliberalism dominated poltics for 28 years(1980-2008) thanks to Reagan

HW was better in terms of foreign policy, and while Reagan got more of his agenda passed in part because he had more time, HW still got some noteworthy bipartisan legislation passed like the ADA that has held up better over time.

On FP id say its a push but both were very important but on Economic policy Reagan had many many influential bills passed:

- 1986 Tax Reform(This was bipartisan too)

- Reagan also passed a law that required all hospitals to provide emerengecy care regardless of patient ability to pay

- Reagan made many reforms to our regulatory system(he replaced almost half the regulations there were)

- Reagan changed the way programs were administered into a more block grant system

- On Trade Reagan pretty much helped create the framework of NAFTA which HW later built on

[The Righteous Tip of the Abundance Spear]

I can smell the smug neckbeard who wrote this. It just reeks of weed and cheetos.

Goddamn you people are predictable. Seriously, does it not bother you that every old canard, truism, and insult that you can possibly think of in an argument can be condensed into a Bingo card? Boo. Get new material.

[Yoda]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

I feel gross when I agree with people. Consensus makes my stomach ache.

This pretty much describes every libertarian I've ever met, and it speaks to why their presidential candidates can never get more than ~1-3% of the vote. Libertarians strike me as the Goth Kids of political parties. Sit in a Denny's all night drinking coffee, talking about how stupid and awful everyone but them is, sharing their utter disdain for those who don't wear all black, and stiffing the server for good measure.

Libertarianism is a phase, not an ideology. 99% of people grow out of it.

My God I hope you're right. I know too many people who voted for Johnson for no other reason than he made a bunch of noise about legalizing weed, and who were completely ignorant about his past as a republican governor.

[Badger]

I can smell the smug neckbeard who wrote this. It just reeks of weed and cheetos.

Goddamn you people are predictable. Seriously, does it not bother you that every old canard, truism, and insult that you can possibly think of in an argument can be condensed into a Bingo card? Boo. Get new material.

Wow. John, is such snark really worth getting THAT triggered over?

[Santander]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

I feel gross when I agree with people. Consensus makes my stomach ache.

This pretty much describes every libertarian I've ever met, and it speaks to why their presidential candidates can never get more than ~1-3% of the vote. Libertarians strike me as the Goth Kids of political parties. Sit in a Denny's all night drinking coffee, talking about how stupid and awful everyone but them is, sharing their utter disdain for those who don't wear all black, and stiffing the server for good measure.

Libertarianism is a phase, not an ideology. 99% of people grow out of it.

My God I hope you're right. I know too many people who voted for Johnson for no other reason than he made a bunch of noise about legalizing weed, and who were completely ignorant about his past as a republican governor.

Gary Johnson is like a poster child for why doing drugs is bad.

[freepcrusher]

this is the one thing that helps me sleep at night. Verses 3 and 4 of "Dogs" is like the GOP's future.

[Trends Are Fake]

this is the one thing that helps me sleep at night. Verses 3 and 4 of "Dogs" is like the GOP's future.

For me the question has never been whether or not people in the future will be voting in people who help the country rather than hurt it, it's how much damage will those hurting the country will do before demographic shifts inevitably push them out of office.

[Globalise Operation Rising Lion]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Start by removing gibberish like this from your lexicon

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Start by removing gibberish like this from your lexicon

I understood that sentence perfectly.

[Globalise Operation Rising Lion]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Start by removing gibberish like this from your lexicon

I understood that sentence perfectly.

There's nothing grammatically incorrect, but politically it's pure doggerel