Republicans’ problems with young voters go far deeper than Trump

[Bootes Void]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/15/republicans-problems-with-young-voters-go-far-deeper-than-trump/

For years there has been a demographic apocalypse coming for the Republican Party, and it looks set to arrive in 2020. The GOP has been losing the youngest voters by double digits in elections since 2004. Not only do these voters make up about a 20-year-long bloc of Democratic leaners and stalwarts, they are now aging into higher turnout rates and political power. Meanwhile, Trumpism and Republicans’ unwillingness to confront it continue to alienate decisive majorities of incoming 18-year-olds. If Republicans don’t turn this trend around soon, they will struggle to be competitive.

Yet most Republicans are in denial about the scale of the problem, as well as its solution. They dismiss young voters’ ideological leanings as a byproduct of social media or liberal college educations and assert that better messaging or, as the most prominent young conservative commentator Ben Shapiro wrote, “condemning bad behavior” from President Trump would win them back.

But that analysis ignores that the Republican problems stretch to basically all voters under 45. Decades of data unequivocally reveal that these voters do not share Republican preferences or principles on major issues and would not be won over by anyone “advocating conservative policies.” They aren’t being driven left by their college professors, but rather by the Republican Party’s spectacular record of policy failure in the 21st century, and getting rid of Trump won’t be nearly enough to win them back.

[abbreviated - posting entire articles is not allowed (copyright)]

[Miss J]

I'm not young anymore - but I was part of that first group of millennials to vote for the first time in 2004.  I was appalled at the antigay marriage amendment and started voting for Democrats.  Donald Trump is revolting and my Democratic affiliation has become even firmer than it was in previous elections.

I believe the Republican Party's LGBTQ views are very hostile and that is the major reason why I will never support them.  So they lost this millennial's vote for good.  It's an example of how one social issue can define one's political affiliation and ideology for life.

[Badger]

It is axiomatic that the most educated, most queer friendly, most racially diverse Generations in history will feel anything but antipathy towards the current Republican party. And the current Republican party shows exactly zero impetus to changing anytime in the far foreseeable future.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And yet people doubt when I say MS will be safe D soon.

[dotard]

It’s what happens when you have two absolutely disastrous Presidents in a row.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

[Pericles]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

George HW Bush was a pretty good President, even if he is inevitably a failure from being a one-termer.

[Ferguson97]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

George HW Bush was a pretty good President, even if he is inevitably a failure from being a one-termer.

He’s pretty unremarkable though. I’d wager most non-political junkies don’t know much about him.

[The Righteous Tip of the Abundance Spear]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

[Santander]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

[The Righteous Tip of the Abundance Spear]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

I feel gross when I agree with people. Consensus makes my stomach ache.

[dotard]

It has been 32 years since the Republicans have had a successful President by objective measures. That is 12 years longer than the distance between Ike leaving office and Reagan becoming President.

George HW Bush was a pretty good President, even if he is inevitably a failure from being a one-termer.

In a lot of ways, Nixon was pretty successful too.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

As a paternalistic nanny-state leftist, I agree with you. I wish the mainstream right looked less like Donald Trump and more like John Dule.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

This thread is inherently flawed because grasr00ts once make unmistakably clear that Generation Z is basically a massive paleoconservative voting block that will inevitably reverse all cultural and political progress since 1968 once it is eligible to vote.

[MABA 2020]

I hope this turns out correct, got my fingers crossed for the Republicans to go the way of the Federalists.

[Annatar]

18-29 year old voters have been shifting more Republican vs the national average since the 2008 Obama landslide, in 2008 18-29 year old voters went for Obama by 36%, he won nationally by 7% so those voters were 29% more democratic than the average, in 2012, he won 18-29 year old voters by 23%, whilst winning nationally by 4%, so they were 19% more democratic than the nation, in 2016, Clinton won 18-29 year olds by 19%, whilst winning by 2 so 18-29 year old voters were 17% more democratic than the average. In 2004 18-29 year old voters were 11% more democratic than the national average so they are not that much more democratic now in relative terms.

I am pretty sure relative to the national vote, 18-29 year olds will be even less democratic this year then they were in 2016, regardless of whether Trump or Biden win.


The GOP I think does have an issue with young voters but it is not an overwhelming one, if we think about it in terms of the 2 party vote, Romney won 38% of the 18-29 year old 2 party vote, Trump got 40%, now 40% is obviously not 50%, but getting from 40% of the 2 party vote to 45% or higher is not that hard.

There is a country where there is a gigantic age gap, but it is not America, it is the UK, the UK Conservatives should be worried about how poorly they do with young voters, their numbers among young voters are catastrophic.

[Samof94]

Brexit disproportionately was supported by people over the age of 65.

[7,052,770]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

I feel gross when I agree with people. Consensus makes my stomach ache.

Then move to a red state and become liberal.

[Badger]

I'm disgusted by the leftism of my generation, but if you want to win young people over to the right, you need to start by providing a credible counterargument to the left's benign Malthusian paternalistic nanny-state Chicken-Little doomsday socialism. Until Trump, Trumpism, and the illiterate boomer mob that enables him have all been expunged from political power, it will be impossible to do that.

Just embrace the leftism. Being popular is fun.

I feel gross when I agree with people. Consensus makes my stomach ache.

It don't reject it just to be edgy, d u l e.

[Where's the Epstein Client List?]

This thread is inherently flawed because grasr00ts once make unmistakably clear that Generation Z is basically a massive paleoconservative voting block that will inevitably reverse all cultural and political progress since 1968 once it is eligible to vote.

And it all happened because the green-haired Tumblr leftist pronoun Feminazis drove them into the arms of Trump and the Alt-Right.

[GP270watch]

 The problem is Republicans forgot they actually have to govern. They let the polluters, jesus-freaks, "free market" proponents(who love big corporate welfare) run rampant.

 Easy ideas that would have traditionally been within the Republican philosophy like "cap and trade" are now deemed radical. Obamacare was their shot to keep a private health insurance medical care system that they claim is the best and had advocated for. Instead of governing they want to unravel everything and profiteer. They have basically guaranteed we will have a socialized universal healthcare system within a generation.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

18-29 year old voters have been shifting more Republican vs the national average since the 2008 Obama landslide, in 2008 18-29 year old voters went for Obama by 36%, he won nationally by 7% so those voters were 29% more democratic than the average, in 2012, he won 18-29 year old voters by 23%, whilst winning nationally by 4%, so they were 19% more democratic than the nation, in 2016, Clinton won 18-29 year olds by 19%, whilst winning by 2 so 18-29 year old voters were 17% more democratic than the average. In 2004 18-29 year old voters were 11% more democratic than the national average so they are not that much more democratic now in relative terms.

I am pretty sure relative to the national vote, 18-29 year olds will be even less democratic this year then they were in 2016, regardless of whether Trump or Biden win.


The GOP I think does have an issue with young voters but it is not an overwhelming one, if we think about it in terms of the 2 party vote, Romney won 38% of the 18-29 year old 2 party vote, Trump got 40%, now 40% is obviously not 50%, but getting from 40% of the 2 party vote to 45% or higher is not that hard.

There is a country where there is a gigantic age gap, but it is not America, it is the UK, the UK Conservatives should be worried about how poorly they do with young voters, their numbers among young voters are catastrophic.

Dream on. Your entire post is a bunch of BS.

[lfromnj]

18-29 year old voters have been shifting more Republican vs the national average since the 2008 Obama landslide, in 2008 18-29 year old voters went for Obama by 36%, he won nationally by 7% so those voters were 29% more democratic than the average, in 2012, he won 18-29 year old voters by 23%, whilst winning nationally by 4%, so they were 19% more democratic than the nation, in 2016, Clinton won 18-29 year olds by 19%, whilst winning by 2 so 18-29 year old voters were 17% more democratic than the average. In 2004 18-29 year old voters were 11% more democratic than the national average so they are not that much more democratic now in relative terms.

I am pretty sure relative to the national vote, 18-29 year olds will be even less democratic this year then they were in 2016, regardless of whether Trump or Biden win.


The GOP I think does have an issue with young voters but it is not an overwhelming one, if we think about it in terms of the 2 party vote, Romney won 38% of the 18-29 year old 2 party vote, Trump got 40%, now 40% is obviously not 50%, but getting from 40% of the 2 party vote to 45% or higher is not that hard.

There is a country where there is a gigantic age gap, but it is not America, it is the UK, the UK Conservatives should be worried about how poorly they do with young voters, their numbers among young voters are catastrophic.

Dream on. Your entire post is a bunch of BS.

Great debate you are making to his counter argument with factual stats although he forgot to cite the exit polls

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

There we go. Now there are actual worries for the GOP such as this election but people should remain a bit skeptical. Overall from 2004 to 2016 the trend among the youngest voters was close to neutral.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

18-29 year old voters have been shifting more Republican vs the national average since the 2008 Obama landslide, in 2008 18-29 year old voters went for Obama by 36%, he won nationally by 7% so those voters were 29% more democratic than the average, in 2012, he won 18-29 year old voters by 23%, whilst winning nationally by 4%, so they were 19% more democratic than the nation, in 2016, Clinton won 18-29 year olds by 19%, whilst winning by 2 so 18-29 year old voters were 17% more democratic than the average. In 2004 18-29 year old voters were 11% more democratic than the national average so they are not that much more democratic now in relative terms.

I am pretty sure relative to the national vote, 18-29 year olds will be even less democratic this year then they were in 2016, regardless of whether Trump or Biden win.


The GOP I think does have an issue with young voters but it is not an overwhelming one, if we think about it in terms of the 2 party vote, Romney won 38% of the 18-29 year old 2 party vote, Trump got 40%, now 40% is obviously not 50%, but getting from 40% of the 2 party vote to 45% or higher is not that hard.

There is a country where there is a gigantic age gap, but it is not America, it is the UK, the UK Conservatives should be worried about how poorly they do with young voters, their numbers among young voters are catastrophic.

Dream on. Your entire post is a bunch of BS.

Great debate you are making to his counter argument with factual stats although he forgot to cite the exit polls

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

There we go.

Once again, dream on!

67% of young voters (ages 18-29) in 2018 voted for Democratic candidates in 2018 (SOURCE: https://www.statista.com/statistics/940411/2018-midterm-election-exit-polls-votes-by-age/)


Also, this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NPR/status/1308025764848205824

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1304260135796314112

[lfromnj]

18-29 year old voters have been shifting more Republican vs the national average since the 2008 Obama landslide, in 2008 18-29 year old voters went for Obama by 36%, he won nationally by 7% so those voters were 29% more democratic than the average, in 2012, he won 18-29 year old voters by 23%, whilst winning nationally by 4%, so they were 19% more democratic than the nation, in 2016, Clinton won 18-29 year olds by 19%, whilst winning by 2 so 18-29 year old voters were 17% more democratic than the average. In 2004 18-29 year old voters were 11% more democratic than the national average so they are not that much more democratic now in relative terms.

I am pretty sure relative to the national vote, 18-29 year olds will be even less democratic this year then they were in 2016, regardless of whether Trump or Biden win.


The GOP I think does have an issue with young voters but it is not an overwhelming one, if we think about it in terms of the 2 party vote, Romney won 38% of the 18-29 year old 2 party vote, Trump got 40%, now 40% is obviously not 50%, but getting from 40% of the 2 party vote to 45% or higher is not that hard.

There is a country where there is a gigantic age gap, but it is not America, it is the UK, the UK Conservatives should be worried about how poorly they do with young voters, their numbers among young voters are catastrophic.

Dream on. Your entire post is a bunch of BS.

Great debate you are making to his counter argument with factual stats although he forgot to cite the exit polls

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

There we go.

Once again, dream on!

67% of young voters (ages 18-29) in 2018 voted for Democratic candidates in 2018 (SOURCE: https://www.statista.com/statistics/940411/2018-midterm-election-exit-polls-votes-by-age/)


Also, this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NPR/status/1308025764848205824

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1304260135796314112

Again legitimate point, Im not dreaming or anything, Im just bringing up 2008 and 2016 as factual analysis. Also isn't the 2nd poll you have just college students?