Emerson-NC Biden+1

[SaneDemocrat]

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat

[Dr. Arch]

NC and TX might be the tightest states this election. Biden+1/+2 is good from Emerson.

Edit: Big point, Biden's at 50.

No Leaners:
Biden: 50% (+1)
Trump: 49%
Undecided: 1%

Leaners:
Biden: 51% (+2)
Trump: 49%

717 LVs via Landline, SMS, and Online Panel
MOE: ±3.6%

Very tight LV screen.

[Splash]

I think it's pretty clear that Biden has a small lead here. Will NC dump their early vote on election night shortly after polls close like they usually do?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's Biden +2% with leaners

September 16-18
Changes with August 8-10 poll

With leaners:
N.B. Trends are calculated pre-rounding.
Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 49% (-1)

[DaleCooper]

I think it's pretty clear that Biden has a small lead here. Will NC dump their early vote on election night shortly after polls close like they usually do?

I don't see why they wouldn't.

[Podgy the Bear]

NC and GA are the two tossup states that the Democrats need to throw every available resource.  There are three Senate seats riding on the line.  

Even if the Republicans steal away the RBG seat (which appears likely), Biden and the Democrats can still do a tremendous amount with two branches of the U.S. government.

[Tender Branson]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are seeing the closing of the gap, due to the death of RBG, not expanding the EC map. WI, NEB2, ME2, and AZ is the ballgame

[n1240]

Not that I expect better from Emerson but they have Trump leading among women and Biden leading among men here.

[Fusternino]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

[n1240]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

Raw data files here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

Elect project has full tracker for all states (where info is available): https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Fusternino]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

Raw data files here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

Elect project has full tracker for all states (where info is available): https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Thanks. Poking around a bit. Expected the PA numbers to be even more lopsided by partisan split. Guess there will be several waves of requests.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must not put our faith in the American electorate to give us a 413 EC landslide, there are third party spoilers on the ballot in most states

Thats why Dems must win GA in order to get Crt packing, in a tied Senate, getting rid of Filibuster will be too hard to do

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

NC and GA are the two tossup states that the Democrats need to throw every available resource.  There are three Senate seats riding on the line.  

Even if the Republicans steal away the RBG seat (which appears likely), Biden and the Democrats can still do a tremendous amount with two branches of the U.S. government.

I'm a bit leery on the Loeffler race, but it's asinine that Ossoff hasn't gotten more national help/resources

[wbrocks67]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

Raw data files here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

Elect project has full tracker for all states (where info is available): https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Thanks. Poking around a bit. Expected the PA numbers to be even more lopsided by partisan split. Guess there will be several waves of requests.

Most PA ballots haven't been sent out yet, so it's probably a super wonky sample right now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

Raw data files here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

Elect project has full tracker for all states (where info is available): https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Thanks. Poking around a bit. Expected the PA numbers to be even more lopsided by partisan split. Guess there will be several waves of requests.

Most PA ballots haven't been sent out yet, so it's probably a super wonky sample right now

CNN and Cook already said its a 291-247 EC map, NC,GA may split their votes for Prez and Senate, and not being a 334 or 413 landslide

Rs are still intending to win the election, they haven't given up yet, either. Trump approvals are near 50 not 39

[Brittain33]

NC and TX might be the tightest states this election. Biden+1/+2 is good from Emerson.

Edit: Big point, Biden's at 50.

At 50 has less meaning when Trump is almost at 50, though. Margin of error comes into play.

[BobbieMac]

Ca. 3% of the expected vote in NC has been cast already.

I live in NC and will be voting early in person.

Where do you see the vote cast? I only see the number of requests out of total RV.

Raw data files here: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

Elect project has full tracker for all states (where info is available): https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Thanks. Poking around a bit. Expected the PA numbers to be even more lopsided by partisan split. Guess there will be several waves of requests.

Most PA ballots haven't been sent out yet, so it's probably a super wonky sample right now

CNN and Cook already said its a 291-247 EC map, NC,GA may split their votes for Prez and Senate, and not being a 334 or 413 landslide

Rs are still intending to win the election, they haven't given up yet, either. Trump approvals are near 50 not 39

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

[BobbieMac]

We must not put our faith in the American electorate to give us a 413 EC landslide, there are third party spoilers on the ballot in most states

Thats why Dems must win GA in order to get Crt packing, in a tied Senate, getting rid of Filibuster will be too hard to do

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.