NBC/WSJ/Telemundo-Latinos: Biden +36
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  NBC/WSJ/Telemundo-Latinos: Biden +36
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Telemundo-Latinos: Biden +36  (Read 935 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 20, 2020, 05:36:37 PM »

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2020, 05:38:35 PM »

A modest swing to Trump but not a catastrophic one for Biden.

Caribbean Hispanics seem to be swinging pretty hard, but I'm not sure Mexican Americans have swung much at all. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2020, 05:39:08 PM »

2016 exit: Clinton +38
2018 exit: Dems +40
2020 poll: Biden +36

Given that those were exits and these are polls, looks like Biden will likely wind up just about the same as Clinton 16/Dems 18.

I wouldn't even touch that Sept 2016 NBC poll considering Trump at 16% was just ridiculous (also had 21% undecided/other versus 12% now)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2020, 05:39:35 PM »

A modest swing to Trump but not a catastrophic one for Biden.

Caribbean Hispanics seem to be swinging pretty hard, but I'm not sure Mexican Americans have swung much at all. 

It's 2% off Clinton's margin. That's MoE, not a "modest swing." A modest swing would be like 5-7%.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2020, 05:40:50 PM »

Looks about on par with Hillary exit polling. The rise of Trump was such a strange phenomenon in 2016 that comparing polls from then and now that he's normalized is like apples and oranges.

I'm predicting that the difference between Biden and Clinton Hispanic support will be close to negligible everywhere outside of Florida.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2020, 05:43:29 PM »

HUH?

Quote
But it’s clear Biden has work to do with the Hispanic electorate. In a September 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll, Clinton led Trump 63 percent to 16 percent with registered Hispanic voters.

Why are you even comparing a poll from September 2016, that had over 20% undecided/other, and that was clearly way off from the final result?

Biden nearly getting what Clinton and Dems in 2018 got in their *EXIT POLLS* with more voters allocated and the narrative is still: "Biden has work to do."

My f**king god.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2020, 05:50:07 PM »

Yet, the media still wants to make it seem like there is a "BIDEN COLLAPSE" with Latino voters. Biden will get 65-70% of the Latino vote. Trump will get 25-30%.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 06:47:20 PM »

Thank god, finally a high-quality poll that can be used as a buttress against the "Latinos are swinging towards Trump" narrative.
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kph14
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2020, 06:49:53 PM »

Thank god, finally a high-quality poll that can be used as a buttress against the "Latinos are swinging towards Trump" narrative.
Dave Wasserman sounded very disappointed when he commented on this poll
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redjohn
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2020, 07:00:28 PM »

Good poll for Biden. He's holding steady with Hispanic and Black voters, and has surged with white voters compared to Clinton's performance. All he needs is to hold steady.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 08:13:17 PM »

Thank god, finally a high-quality poll that can be used as a buttress against the "Latinos are swinging towards Trump" narrative.
Dave Wasserman sounded very disappointed when he commented on this poll

He implied on Twitter that Biden might be improving among Latinos in safe states but losing ground in Arizona and Texas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 08:13:41 PM »

A modest swing to Trump but not a catastrophic one for Biden.

Caribbean Hispanics seem to be swinging pretty hard, but I'm not sure Mexican Americans have swung much at all. 

Mexican-Americans typically are under-polled in the West Coast and Southwest (Including Tejas)...

Especially working-class Latino voters who frequently don't show up in LV screens, but tend to be much more Democratic inclined than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class voters...

I am not even going to jump into the weeds when it comes to Central American Latino Voters, who typically actually tend to vote to the Left of Mexican-American Latinos, despite the fact that Protestant Evangelicals tend to be much higher among Central-American voters, compared with much more heavily Catholic Mexican-American voters...

Obviously the big wild card when it comes to the Latino Vote will be the Puerto Rican voters, where large turnout could obviously carry the Dems to victory in FL and PA, not to mention flipping some FED and State HD and SD seats, along a much larger section of "Turf"...

Cuban-Americans represent only 3.5% of the Latino population of the US, and essentially basically outside of South Florida and parts of New Jersey are virtually invisible, despite their over-sized microphones, because their Parents, Grand-Parents, and Great-Grandparents, for the most part were the "Gangster Generation" that supported the Batista Regime, and even the newer generation from the Mariel boatlift, who tended to be much more working-class Cubanos, tend to more of an Islander population which had different perspectives than the Batista corrupt gang, which was part of the First major wave of Cuban Immigration to America...

Sanders needs to hit the turf...

"si se puede" still resonates hard among Mexican-Americans:

1.) $15 / Hr Min Wage

2.) Universal Health Care for All

3.) Free Community College Education for All...

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that DEMs need to push hard on "bread & butter" economics in order to expect Working-Class Latino Americans to show up in numbers in '20, after even O'Bama had a bit of a reputation within the Community as the "Deporter in Chief" after his 2012 win....

Got tons of love for Obama, but ACA support got "Trumped" by lack of action on other items, and I felt it in the air in Houston, Tejas among fellow workers in a 9+k jobsite...
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 08:38:33 PM »

Thank god, finally a high-quality poll that can be used as a buttress against the "Latinos are swinging towards Trump" narrative.
Dave Wasserman sounded very disappointed when he commented on this poll

He implied on Twitter that Biden might be improving among Latinos in safe states but losing ground in Arizona and Texas.

Biden is at tossup In Texas and Lean D at Arizona, but somehow people must find a negative
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2020, 08:48:06 PM »

But when Roman Catholic Hispanics in Arizona and Nevada remember the Supreme Court exists they will swing the other way obviously.
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