Reminder: Trump is only a small polling error away...

[Suburban Republican]

... from losing Texas. Which is quite possible, given Democrats recent history of overperforming the polls there.

But actually. I'm so sick of the "we can never be too careful" attitude that a lot of red avatars on here have. So predicting that Trump pulls an upset like he did in 2016 is acceptable, but Biden defeating Trump by a double digit margin somehow isn't (despite 538 listing it as a more likely possibility- 23 to 30%)? I could very easily see this election being a Biden blowout, and users on here being surprised by it (albeit pleasantly) because they were too stricken with hopelessness from 2016 and caught up in the media's assertion that this race was even competitive to begin with.

The blue avatars are bullish with their predictions. It's time we be bullish with ours.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

A prediction should be fact based though and not based on gut feelings and being worried about how your prediction will be perceived by others.

[redjohn]

I think there's a decent chance (call me wrong) FL votes with TX. TX's leftward surge shouldn't be underestimated, and it's going to see a surge in turnout that could shift the electorate even further. I'm still unsure whether IA or TX is likely to vote further right.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

... from losing Texas. Which is quite possible, given Democrats recent history of overperforming the polls there.

But actually. I'm so sick of the "we can never be too careful" attitude that a lot of red avatars on here have.

(...)

The blue avatars are bullish with their predictions. It's time we be bullish with ours.

I'm sick of that attitude as well as the "Ignore the polls" and "Act like Biden is 10 points behind" mentality. If you wanna think that, better donate to swing states like Oregon & New Mexico.

Screw folks who think I'm being too bullish or overconfident. If I want to set myself up for disappointment if Biden doesn't flip Texas or Georgia, that's my prerogative.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the attitude that polling errors only help Trump and could never be in Biden's direction is just really bad analysis, but again, goes with the pundit narrative with the horse race.

CNN's Harry Enten was the first person today in the media I think that actually wrote that it was a possibility of a Biden blowout. Nearly everyone else is still stuck on the "polling errors can happen! and they'll likely help Trump somehow!!!!" train

[The Mikado]

Trump's just a standard polling error away from the biggest loss since Walter Mondale.

[The Mikado]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

I really don't get this. There's nothing that builds hopelessness and despair like losing. The "act like you're down by 10" people are insane. If polls were regularly like "Trump 51, Biden 41," the answer would be despair and people giving up en masse and clamoring for a replacement candidate, not working harder.

Do people not remember the story of the 1980 election, when it was called at close on the East Coast so people in the Western states just walked out of line to vote in a "f**k this waste of time" move and it ended up costing the Dems a lot of House and Senate races in the West and turned a defeat into an absolute Reagan rout? Hearing "We're losing" doesn't inspire people to try harder, it inspires them to give up.

An army marches on victory and enthusiasm. Does Trump ever say "We're getting clobbered?" No, he tells his people to believe they're winning no matter what and ignore anyone telling them otherwise. That's how you motivate and engage people. PEOPLE ENJOY WINNING. People enjoy voting for the winning candidate. Oftentimes they even lie after the fact and tell people they vote for the person who won because they don't want to seem like losers. Why shouldn't Democrats do the same and actually act like winners?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, but the economy is still in partial shutdown, we still dont have a fully functioning economy, so he still is the underdog. Trump needed a robust recovery in addition to the 6th Conservative Justice to come all the way back, but it hasnt. Like Bush W did with Reagan funeral and Bin Laden tape

[Ferguson97]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

I really don't get this. There's nothing that builds hopelessness and despair like losing. The "act like you're down by 10" people are insane. If polls were regularly like "Trump 51, Biden 41," the answer would be despair and people giving up en masse and clamoring for a replacement candidate, not working harder.

Do people not remember the story of the 1980 election, when it was called at close on the East Coast so people in the Western states just walked out of line to vote in a "f**k this waste of time" move and it ended up costing the Dems a lot of House and Senate races in the West and turned a defeat into an absolute Reagan rout? Hearing "We're losing" doesn't inspire people to try harder, it inspires them to give up.

An army marches on victory and enthusiasm. Does Trump ever say "We're getting clobbered?" No, he tells his people to believe they're winning no matter what and ignore anyone telling them otherwise. That's how you motivate and engage people. PEOPLE ENJOY WINNING. People enjoy voting for the winning candidate. Oftentimes they even lie after the fact and tell people they vote for the person who won because they don't want to seem like losers. Why shouldn't Democrats do the same and actually act like winners?

Fear is the most powerful motivator

[GeneralMacArthur]

The difference between a blowout and a standard win is pointless.  As long as Biden wins I don't care if he wins Texas or Georgia.

But the difference between a standard win and another razor-thin loss is catastrophic.

It's like if you got a "you don't have cancer" diagnosis, and they said, well it can be wrong in both ways.  Maybe you have cancer.  Or maybe it's overly pessimistic and you really really really don't have cancer.  I only care about one of those eventualities.

[Stuart98]

The difference between a blowout and a standard win is pointless.  As long as Biden wins I don't care if he wins Texas or Georgia.

But the difference between a standard win and another razor-thin loss is catastrophic.

It's like if you got a "you don't have cancer" diagnosis, and they said, well it can be wrong in both ways.  Maybe you have cancer.  Or maybe it's overly pessimistic and you really really really don't have cancer.  I only care about one of those eventualities.

There's a big difference between a 50-50 senate and a 55-45 senate in terms of Biden's ability to get stuff done in the likely event that he wins. Not being able to get stuff done over the next four years makes it much more likely the GOP takes back their power in 2024.

[Lief 🗽]

Trump has a 1.1% lead in the 538 polling average; him losing wouldn't be a polling error, just margin of error.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The difference between a blowout and a standard win is pointless.  As long as Biden wins I don't care if he wins Texas or Georgia.

But the difference between a standard win and another razor-thin loss is catastrophic.

It's like if you got a "you don't have cancer" diagnosis, and they said, well it can be wrong in both ways.  Maybe you have cancer.  Or maybe it's overly pessimistic and you really really really don't have cancer.  I only care about one of those eventualities.

There's a big difference between a 50-50 senate and a 55-45 senate in terms of Biden's ability to get stuff done in the likely event that he wins. Not being able to get stuff done over the next four years makes it much more likely the GOP takes back their power in 2024.

We're not talking about the Senate.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

A prediction should be fact based though and not based on gut feelings and being worried about how your prediction will be perceived by others.

The notion that predictions on Election Atlas are somehow going to impact whether or not the average voter is too complacent in November is just not grounded in reality. The average voter has never even heard of this website, and it is an act of shocking egomania and/or superstition to think these predictions matter in the grand scheme of things.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's time we be bullish with ours.

Bullish predictions = complacent voters. Never again!

A prediction should be fact based though and not based on gut feelings and being worried about how your prediction will be perceived by others.

The notion that somehow predictions on Election Atlas are somehow going to impact whether or not the average voter is too complacent in November is just not grounded in reality. The average voter has never even heard of this website, and it is an act of shocking egomania and/or superstition to think these predictions matter in the grand scheme of things.

I was referring to more prominent predictions. The "Trump can't possibly win" narrative in 2016 undoubtedly contributed to his win by making Democrats complacent.

[It’s so Joever]

[Stuart98]

The difference between a blowout and a standard win is pointless.  As long as Biden wins I don't care if he wins Texas or Georgia.

But the difference between a standard win and another razor-thin loss is catastrophic.

It's like if you got a "you don't have cancer" diagnosis, and they said, well it can be wrong in both ways.  Maybe you have cancer.  Or maybe it's overly pessimistic and you really really really don't have cancer.  I only care about one of those eventualities.

There's a big difference between a 50-50 senate and a 55-45 senate in terms of Biden's ability to get stuff done in the likely event that he wins. Not being able to get stuff done over the next four years makes it much more likely the GOP takes back their power in 2024.

We're not talking about the Senate.

The difference between a narrow Biden win and a blowout Biden win is that the coattails in the latter get you a sizable senate majority, the coattails in the former get you a narrow senate majority.

[Agonized-Statism]

Look, if you want to personally influence the outcome of the race, a forum for prognostication isn't the place to do it. You and your friends making Biden landslide maps on a desolate corner of the Internet isn't going to help your color-coded team do better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, AZ, ME2, NEB2 and WI are still up for grabs and determine the winner. We are gonna see what happens about Trump and getting a bump in the polls on Amy Coney Barrett. Trump has energized his base with the nomination


Warning to these hack polling firms that show like MSN that Biden is beating Trump in TX, NC, GA and FL, that Senate races and Prez are not necessary gonna vote the same way, all the time, it's called split voting

Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals but at 47

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Trump has a 1.1% lead in the 538 polling average; him losing wouldn't be a polling error, just margin of error.

I get the feeling most folks here find Margin of Error either a foreign concept or an inconvenience in the way of their narrative (IE: Someone declaring Georgia/Texas "Lean R" or being so sure that it won't flip due to Trump-led polls with 1-3% margins)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump already stated that he isn't against stimulus, he wants a 1200 a month Stimulus and and 1200 stimulus for unemployment, not a 2400 a month stimulus, and he wants the 1200 1 x stimulus to be deposited in bank accounts by 10/1. We know Union bosses are behind Pelosi stymied of the Stimulus bill, they are behind the Crt packing plan that wants Trump's pick nullified and pass comprehensive immigration and give a new pool of voters to Dems and a decade long of Democratic rule.

Whom is the biggest Union boss in the country, Pelosi, who went ahead on Recess, eventhough she said she wouldn't to get the September MA primary season over with, and Union boss Markey got reelected, that blue collar AA don't even like

It will be a lot easier on the country to pass the stimulus regardless, of giving credit to Pelosi or Trump.  A 1.5 T bi partisan package was already voted down by Pelosi, she wants everything or nothing at all before the election

No one cares about another impeachment trial, when the last one ended like Iran Contra did by Mueller, no new indictiments

[BobbieMac]

Yes, AZ, ME2, NEB2 and WI are still up for grabs and determine the winner. We are gonna see what happens about Trump and getting a bump in the polls on Amy Coney Barrett. Trump has energized his base with the nomination


Warning to these hack polling firms that show like MSN that Biden is beating Trump in TX, NC, GA and FL, that Senate races and Prez are not necessary gonna vote the same way, all the time, it's called split voting

Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals but at 47

Trumps approval is at 44%. Stop lieing.

[Sir Mohamed]

Very good point. It has always been a myth polling errors only benefit the GOP. Even in 2016, Trump was expected to do better in some states like NV, where he underperformed. Same in 2018; McSally was actually ahead at the time of the election. Given TX polling history, Biden could actually overperform by a 1-2 pts, which would be enough to flip the state. We're not even talking about the polling error here, he's within the MoE. I could see a flip in TX the equivalent of PA/MI/WI narrowly going to Trump in 2016: Signs for a flip are there, but most observers dismiss the idea because said states have voted for the same party for decades.

[wbrocks67]

Trump only leads +0.8 now on the 538 average in TX

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/