Odds that Trump successfully fills RBG's seat

[Orser67]

With Murkowksi and Collins expressing their desire to at least hold off on naming a nominee until after the election, what are the chances that Trump successfully appoints someone to fill the vacancy caused by Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death?

[7,052,770]

Very likely. The portion of the base that believes abortion is equivalent to literal murder isn't going to let this opportunity slip away.

[GP270watch]

100%

[Podgy the Bear]

This is the motherlode for the evangelicals who have dreamed for this moment. 

[Ferguson97]

99.999999%, leaving room for the miniscule chance that enough there is some reason for a vacancy in the Senate between now and then

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

100%. If the Republicans had the 51 they had before the last election instead of the 53 they have now, we could talk about the small chance that Collins and Murkowski actually follow through.

[Mike Thick]

Not a chance they let it slip away. Numbers game aside, this is a win-win -- either the status quo on the court doesn't change while Dems break the seal on packing, or a 6-3 court turns America into Reagantopia no matter which side wins elections for the next decade or two.

[Frodo]

If (and when) Amy Coney Barrett is nominated and confirmed to the Supreme Court, that would further solidify an overwhelming Catholic majority with seven members:

-John Roberts, Jr. (Chief Justice)
-Samuel Alito, Jr.
-Clarence Thomas
-Sonia Sotomayor
-Brett Kavanaugh
-Neil Gorsuch (was raised Catholic and pretty much considers himself as such despite worshiping at an Episcopalian church.  So, I count him as one)
-Amy Coney Barrett

And two Jews:

-Stephen Breyer
-Elena Kagan

[Bismarck]

If (and when) Amy Coney Barrett is nominated and confirmed to the Supreme Court, that would further solidify an overwhelming Catholic majority with seven members:

-John Roberts, Jr. (Chief Justice)
-Samuel Alito, Jr.
-Clarence Thomas
-Sonia Sotomayor
-Brett Kavanaugh
-Neil Gorsuch (Episcopalian, but was raised Catholic so I count him as one.  Like the Marines, once a Catholic always a Catholic)
-Amy Coney Barrett

And two Jews:

-Stephen Breyer
-Elena Kagan

Yep democrats haven’t nominated a white christian in 50 years and republicans have only gone for Catholics in the last 30 years. Excepting Gorsuch if he counts. Bad time to be a Protestant judge.

[SnowLabrador]

This is what they've all wanted, all they have ever wanted, for decades. There's absolutely no way they pass it up. 100%.

[dead0man]

15%, and they look like assholes for trying. 

[Nyvin]

98% chance it happens.

[7,052,770]

15%, and they look like assholes for trying. 

I'm really not trying to be "that guy" who just picks fights with you and sh**t, but why in the world are you so optimistic?

[woodley park]

I went with plausible but unlikely. All that is needed to defeat Trump's Justice:

1. Trump loses re-election, forcing the vote to happen during his lame duck period
2. Mark Kelly wins election and takes office immediately
3. All current senators in the Democratic caucus plus Kelly, Romney, Murkowski, and Collins vote against confirmation

The end.

My bottom line is that should Trump lose re-election, his appointed Justice will not be confirmed under any circumstance.

[dead0man]

15%, and they look like assholes for trying.  

I'm really not trying to be "that guy" who just picks fights with you and sh**t,

since when

but why in the world are you so optimistic?

I don't know, just am.  (almost)Always have been.  Things have generally gotten better throughout time.  For example, infant mortality world wide dropped again last year, that news just came out last week, did you hear about it?  Of course not, that's not news for some reason.  The number (not just the ratio) of humans living in extreme poverty is a fraction of what it was when I was born.  Same as the number of people living without clean drinking water or decent medical care or a dozen other hugely important factors of life.  Gay people can get married now and nobody cares.  When I was a young adult, most gay people were still afraid to even let other people know.  The world is generally getting better.

Yes, of course, Covid is a horrible tragedy as is the Orange Clown.  Hopefully we'll learn something about ourselves and not make the same mistakes again.  I have very little faith the Dems will govern very well, but I know they won't be such an obvious and embarrassing joke that Trump is and has made of the GOP.

[7,052,770]

15%, and they look like assholes for trying.  

I'm really not trying to be "that guy" who just picks fights with you and sh**t,

since when

but why in the world are you so optimistic?

I don't know, just am.  (almost)Always have been.  Things have generally gotten better throughout time.  For example, infant mortality world wide dropped again last year, that news just came out last week, did you hear about it?  Of course not, that's not news for some reason.  The number (not just the ratio) of humans living in extreme poverty is a fraction of what it was when I was born.  Same as the number of people living without clean drinking water or decent medical care or a dozen other hugely important factors of life.  Gay people can get married now and nobody cares.  When I was a young adult, most gay people were still afraid to even let other people know.  The world is generally getting better.

Yes, of course, Covid is a horrible tragedy as is the Orange Clown.  Hopefully we'll learn something about ourselves and not make the same mistakes again.  I have very little faith the Dems will govern very well, but I know they won't be such an obvious and embarrassing joke that Trump is and has made of the GOP.

I don't mean why so optimistic in general. I'm an optimistic person and agree with all of that (other than I think Biden will govern extremely well by nuking the filibuster and passing his entire platform).

But I'm not optimistic about this scenario. I just don't see it as likely at all that McConnell fails to fill this seat, as the base demand to end abortion is too strong in the Republican Party.

[dead0man]

worst (reasonable) possibility, they fill the seat and Biden/Dem Senate adds two more.  And isn't the House planning some shenanigans to slow the process down?  There isn't a lot of time here.  Maybe there is a GOP Sen or 3 with a spine and integrity?

Or maybe I'm just ignorant.

[Beet]

I think people are underestimating the odds that it doesn't happen. Collins and Murkowski are a no, so you would only need two more Republican Senators out of 51, and many of them are vulnerable in re-election. Evangelicals are one thing, but Republican Senators are not evangelicals, and Trump isn't an evangelical nor did he get elected as one. The Party will follow Trump.

There's definitely the possibility for some creative deal or compromise.

[หมูเด้ง]

They could always nominate a moderate and wait for a less controversial time to name Breyers replacement.

[Beet]

I think people are underestimating the odds that it doesn't happen. Collins and Murkowski are a no, so you would only need two more Republican Senators out of 51, and many of them are vulnerable in re-election. Evangelicals are one thing, but Republican Senators are not evangelicals, and Trump isn't an evangelical nor did he get elected as one. The Party will follow Trump.

There's definitely the possibility for some creative deal or compromise.

That sounds like a good reason not to piss off your voters by joining the libs to undermine our president, and thus a reason that filling the seat is more likely, not less.

Their base will show up to vote for them no matter what. What are they going to do? Vote Democratic? I don't think so. Many of these Senators are hardly above water in the polls and are more at risk of losing swing voters.

[Vespucci]

worst (reasonable) possibility, they fill the seat and Biden/Dem Senate adds two more.  And isn't the House planning some shenanigans to slow the process down?  There isn't a lot of time here.  Maybe there is a GOP Sen or 3 with a spine and integrity?

Or maybe I'm just ignorant.

This is the worst case scenario if the Deems win the Senate, but if they don't, or god forbid Trump wins as well? Then the seat gets filled and there's no way to rebalance the court until 2023 at the earliest.

[SWE]

It's more likely that Trump listens to an episode of chapo trap house, converts to socialism and appoints Bernie than it is that Mitch McConnell wouldn't fast track whatever Federalist Society ghoul Trump appoints

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

50/50, I think. There’s a lot of things we just don’t know right now. I’m guessing there will be some GOP defection, but the magnitude of that is debatable. Arizona will be the state to watch. A lot depends on how quickly we can get Mark Kelly into the Senate should be win. The quickest confirmation for a Supreme Court Justice in recent years was something like 45 days IIRC. There’s 44 days until the election and I can guarantee that Dems are gonna fight this with everything they have. I don’t think it will happen before the election. The Lame Duck period is a whole different animal.

[redjohn]

He will successfully fill the seat. McConnell will absolutely not let the seat remain empty in the potential hands of a President Biden. It doesn't matter if there are a few defections, because McConnell will get the exact number of votes needed to push through a nominee, whether it's before or after the election. They literally only care about power, they will 100% make this happen.

[Orser67]

Voted "very likely", but I'm probably closer to option 4 than to option 2. I think Republicans probably have enough of a margin, enough party unity, and care enough to get the nominee across the finish line. But I don't think this is in the bag for Republicans. In fact, I think the odds that Trump fills the seat are fairly close to the odds of Biden winning election (albeit for very different reasons).