Morning Consult: Biden +12% (phone)/+10% (online)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/
September 10-14

1144 likely voters (phone poll)
Biden 56%
Trump 44%

1277 likely voters (online poll)
Biden 55%
Trump 45%

[Stuart98]

The difference smells like noise to me, if either number is accurate then both Trump and the GOP senate majority are finished.

[wbrocks67]

Why do media outlets keep making this a thing when it was proven that it was not a thing.

[BlueSwan]

So no shy Trump vote then. Big surprise.

Anyway, why did they sit on this for a week.

Honestly, only post-RBG polls will suffice at this point. I still have no idea how her passing will affect this race. Hoping that it won't make much of a difference, but I fear the worst.

[Horus]

Why wait a week? Useless.

[Sir Mohamed]

DOMINATING

National polls are national polls and this is not how the election gets decided, but I can't recall any election in which one candidate has been ahead by margins like this and high single digits on average who managed to lose in the end this close to the election. A Trump win would be a much bigger upset than in 2016 if these numbers don't start moving drastically. And I don't see that, tbh. Trump may not be done until the minute Biden has collected 270 EVs, but he's doomed. Seriously doomed.

[Alben Barkley]

So no shy Trump vote then. Big surprise.

Anyway, why did they sit on this for a week.

Honestly, only post-RBG polls will suffice at this point. I still have no idea how her passing will affect this race. Hoping that it won't make much of a difference, but I fear the worst.

Why do you fear it will change the election when basically nothing so far has? This race has been remarkably stable and consistent for a very long time, and now even the voting has begun. It’s all but over. Plus, RBG dying spurred Democrats to smash records and donate millions of dollars, not Republicans. If anything it will energize Dems, not Rs. Voters fear a loss more than they crave a gain, so RBG dying is a totally different beast than Scalia dying. Basically the opposite.

[BlueSwan]

So no shy Trump vote then. Big surprise.

Anyway, why did they sit on this for a week.

Honestly, only post-RBG polls will suffice at this point. I still have no idea how her passing will affect this race. Hoping that it won't make much of a difference, but I fear the worst.

Why do you fear it will change the election when basically nothing so far has? This race has been remarkably stable and consistent for a very long time, and now even the voting has begun. It’s all but over. Plus, RBG dying spurred Democrats to smash records and donate millions of dollars, not Republicans. If anything it will energize Dems, not Rs. Voters fear a loss more than they crave a gain, so RBG dying is a totally different beast than Scalia dying. Basically the opposite.

Well, I certainly think there's a very solid chance that nothing changes, just like other events basically haven't had any noticable impact on the race. I am concerned about the following:

- NeverTrumpers and ReluctantTrumpers being reminded that this is a generational chance to overturn Roe v Wade.

- Senate republicans seeing strengthened turnout.

- Dumbass leftists thinking that now that the supreme court is lost they might as well go full accelerationist, like the stupid thread in the main 2020 forum today.

- Trump actually succeeding in getting his nomination confirmed increases his chances of outright stealing the election by declaring that election night results should hold and further mail-in ballots shouldn't be counted, hence throwing the election to the courts.

But yeah, I am a bedwetting liberal.