FL, TX - YouGov/CBS: Biden +2%, Trump +2%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 08, 2023, 12:43:46 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  FL, TX - YouGov/CBS: Biden +2%, Trump +2%
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: FL, TX - YouGov/CBS: Biden +2%, Trump +2%  (Read 2514 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,340


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 20, 2020, 09:38:19 AM »
« edited: September 20, 2020, 09:43:50 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-opinion-poll-florida-texas-09-20-2020/
Changes with July 7-10 polls
September 15-18

FL
1206 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 3.7%

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 46% (+4)
Someone else/third party 1% (-1)
Not sure 5% (-3)

Would not vote previously at 0%

TX
1140 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 3.5%

Trump 48% (+2)
Biden 46% (+1)
Someone else/third party 2% (-2)
Not sure 4% (-2)

Would not vote previously at 0%
Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,174
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2020, 09:40:13 AM »

Considering how important both states are for Trump these are disastrous results
Logged
ηєω Éяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,521
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2020, 09:42:26 AM »

Florida continues to be a tossup. Texas being a statistical tie is horrible for Trump.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,735
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2020, 09:47:57 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2020, 10:51:59 AM by Roll Roons »

Biden needs to be over 50 in Florida. Hopefully Bloomberg's spending pushes him over the top, since it will be really great if he wins there on election night.

It's certainly not impossible that Biden wins Texas, but my ultimate guess is that Trump wins by a Cruz 2018 margin, maybe slightly less. I know the Blue Texas cavalry is incoming, but it has been 26 years since a Democrat won statewide. I will believe it when I see it. Though this is certainly a terrible sign for Trump, and by no means is the state Safe R.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,421
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2020, 09:55:06 AM »

Seems like Trump has regained a little bit in Florida over recent weeks. Still think Biden is going to carry the state, but with less confidence than in July or August.

Texas continues to be a pure tossup. Trump will likely hold out by two or three points in the current environment, but things might change. Both polls are definitely not good for him. The Biden campaign should definitely spend big in Texas. If not for 38 electoral votes, but for downballot races.
Logged
indietraveler
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 988


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2020, 10:04:39 AM »

TX is a tossup - it's hard to believe anyone saying otherwise at this point. Of course the media won't say it is since they want to push the "close race" narrative. 
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,218
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2020, 10:09:22 AM »

Biden down 22 with whites but not doing as poorly with Hispanics as other polls suggest seems much more realistic.
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 10:16:42 AM »

FL in pure tossup territory. I knew those margins like +7 weren't gonna hold. I will say this much though, it's still encouraging.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,492
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2020, 10:57:24 AM »

FL and TX both in Tossup territory is quite something. Party like itís... 1992 (how fitting).
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,757
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2020, 10:59:06 AM »

Reminder: Texas polls historically underestimate Democrats
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,802
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 11:01:22 AM »

TX is a tossup - it's hard to believe anyone saying otherwise at this point. Of course the media won't say it is since they want to push the "close race" narrative.  

I can see this narrative push by the media working in our favor as long as it keeps everyone who hates Trump motivated to vote if they think it is going to be close (it won't be).  

Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,516


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 11:03:55 AM »

TX is a tossup - it's hard to believe anyone saying otherwise at this point. Of course the media won't say it is since they want to push the "close race" narrative. 


Fun fact, its still possible for the race to be "close" although not a tossup by any means but Texas also being a tossup.  All the swing states could literally vote within 5 points of each other !.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,492
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 11:07:42 AM »

TX is a tossup - it's hard to believe anyone saying otherwise at this point. Of course the media won't say it is since they want to push the "close race" narrative.  


Fun fact, its still possible for the race to be "close" although not a tossup by any means but Texas also being a tossup.  All the swing states could literally vote within 5 points of each other !.

I agree (if weíre considering FL/TX/GA/NC/WI/MI/PA swing states), but this isnít that uncommon, right? It already happened in 2012 (or almost, depending on whether you count NC as a swing state that year or not).

But yeah, 144 EV or more than 50% of the total EV needed to win voting within 5 points of each other would be quite something.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2020, 11:27:35 AM »

YouGov's indies R tilt continues... Trump is only winning Texas by 2 while simultaneously winning Indies by nearly 15%, which is... not likely.

Considering TX polls always underestimate Ds, the fact that nearly every poll has been within 2 pts one way or the other is disastrous for Trump
Logged
solidcoalition
Rookie
**
Posts: 248
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2020, 11:30:49 AM »

I still just donít see Biden taking Florida.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2020, 11:45:49 AM »

Interesting that this has Trump winning FL seniors by nearly 10% which hasn't really borne out in other polls. However, if Trump only wins them by 9 compared to 17 in 2016, he ain't winning FL
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,257
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2020, 12:21:11 PM »

Texas is for Trump to lose more than for Biden to win... but Trump has little time in which to win people over in Florida. He has plenty of time in which to do something stupid that loses him Texas, though.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,261
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2020, 12:43:02 PM »

Further confirmation of Trump is surging in Florida while Biden holds steady everywhere else.  This basically has to be explained by something specific to Florida now.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,635
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2020, 01:01:51 PM »

Further confirmation of Trump is surging in Florida while Biden holds steady everywhere else.  This basically has to be explained by something specific to Florida now.

He's only surging if you believed Biden was up 6-7% in Florida at some point. Which he wasn't.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,421
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2020, 01:15:21 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2020, 01:31:23 PM by President Johnson »

I still just donít see Biden taking Florida.

What would take you to see Biden carrying Florida? Him leading by five or ten points? Com' on, he was never going to win by that much in the Sunshine state. This was always a nailbiter. Biden has been ahead in most polls for several months now. Just because previous senate and gubernatorial candidates failed to win despite slim polling leads doesn't mean it happens again this time. Of course, Trump could hold Florida, but saying Biden has no chance here is not backed up by any data.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,208
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2020, 01:22:46 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »

Biden's chances of winning Texas are much better than Trump's are at winning Minnesota, but you won't hear the media talking about that. They want their horserace narrative to remain intact.

I still just donít see Biden taking Florida.

You don't see any scenario that is anything other than disaster for Biden. We get it.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,261
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2020, 01:20:59 PM »

Further confirmation of Trump is surging in Florida while Biden holds steady everywhere else.  This basically has to be explained by something specific to Florida now.

He's only surging if you believed Biden was up 6-7% in Florida at some point. Which he wasn't.

OK, sure, that's possible, but then why were the summer polls wrong in Florida and solid everywhere else?
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,089
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2020, 01:21:14 PM »

I expect a heartbreakingly thin loss in Florida for Biden, and a slightly larger one in Texas.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 78,830
Jamaica
P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2020, 01:28:49 PM »

Yeah, Pelosi is still trying to after impeachment of Trump, instead of passing the stimulus. Pelosi is a nightmare
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,261
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2020, 01:34:12 PM »

I expect a heartbreakingly thin loss in Florida for Biden, and a slightly larger one in Texas.

If the 2016/18 polling errors continue, Trump could legit do better in Florida than Texas.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.