NYTimes/Siena - Montana: Trump+7
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October 20, 2021, 05:18:51 AM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  NYTimes/Siena - Montana: Trump+7
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Author Topic: NYTimes/Siena - Montana: Trump+7  (Read 1484 times)
n1240
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« on: September 20, 2020, 04:07:16 AM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf

Trump 49
Biden 42
Jorgensen 2
Hawkins 1 (not on ballot)

9/14-16, 625 LV
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2020, 04:10:35 AM »

Horrible poll for Trump. Good for Daines though that Bullock isn't running super far ahead of Biden
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2020, 04:39:31 AM »

Daines like Markey are both disappearing, they have only voted on legislation,  not give floor speeches. Markey only came out due to fact he was running for renomination,  but hasnt made a floor speech on 1200 stimulus and certainly not since his reelection.

It's not a surprise Daines may lose
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2020, 06:22:47 AM »

MoE: 4.8%

Refused 5%
Not voting for President 1%
Someone else 0%
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2020, 06:29:23 AM »

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.
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Make Senate Blue Again!
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2020, 08:01:38 AM »

Go Bullock, go Greenfield (which +3 yesterday in A+ pollster)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2020, 08:13:19 AM »

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.

The senate race is tied in this poll
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Georgia Democrat in 2021
mollybecky
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 08:23:56 AM »

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2020, 08:31:47 AM »

Safe Trump
Likely Daines
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2020, 08:32:38 AM »

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.

The senate race is tied in this poll

And they accidentally included the green party candidate (3%) in the poll, even though they won't be on the ballot.  The pollster suggests interviews with the green party voters were split evenly over their major candidate preference, but I'd doubt it works out that way. Tossup.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 08:59:08 AM »

Trump is running well behind his 2016 pace in these northern, mainly white states. You see a pattern with MT, WI, MN, ME.  Wonder what Iowa is looking like now.
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Dougie Jones
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 09:04:56 AM »

Trump is running well behind his 2016 pace in these northern, mainly white states. You see a pattern with MT, WI, MN, ME.  Wonder what Iowa is looking like now.

I could see Iowa being a dead-even race based on the numbers coming out of the Rust Belt, Missouri, and now Montana.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 09:07:15 AM »

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.
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Dougie Jones
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2020, 09:13:36 AM »

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.

Absolutely. Evangelical Christianity's influence on the cultural attitudes is dying in even the most Republican states.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2020, 09:19:06 AM »

Montana threads always bring out the best #analysis on Atlas.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2020, 09:25:57 AM »

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.

It never really wasn’t.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2020, 10:33:40 AM »

Sad number for an incumbent who won the state by 20 points.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2020, 01:44:35 PM »

I don’t get how people are saying good for Daines? He’s tied in this poll, as mentioned. And if Trump is only up by 7, we wouldn’t expect Bullock to be outperforming Biden by 20 points or something; that could only happen if Biden was down big. There’s a ceiling, even for an “elastic” state. As it is, outrunning him by high single digits is good because that looks to be about as much as Trump will win by.

And yeah, Montana is not a very socially conservative state (outside of guns I guess). Not super religious. It’s not a state where the Supreme Court will get a bunch of evangelicals to turn out and vote Republican. There’s a reason Tester held on even after voting against Kavanaugh while McCaskill and Donnelly did not.
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2020, 01:55:40 PM »

This makes me more likely to believe those polls that have showed Alaska close, given that they are pretty similar states.
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