NYTimes/Siena - Montana: Trump+7

[n1240]

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf

Trump 49
Biden 42
Jorgensen 2
Hawkins 1 (not on ballot)

9/14-16, 625 LV

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Horrible poll for Trump. Good for Daines though that Bullock isn't running super far ahead of Biden

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Daines like Markey are both disappearing, they have only voted on legislation,  not give floor speeches. Markey only came out due to fact he was running for renomination,  but hasnt made a floor speech on 1200 stimulus and certainly not since his reelection.

It's not a surprise Daines may lose

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 4.8%

Refused 5%
Not voting for President 1%
Someone else 0%

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.

[wbrocks67]

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.

The senate race is tied in this poll

[Podgy the Bear]

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

[MillennialModerate]

Safe Trump
Likely Daines

[CellarDoor]

Not unwinnable for Biden, but more likely a single digit loss. Bullock losing will be a real shame, but not unexpected.

The senate race is tied in this poll

And they accidentally included the green party candidate (3%) in the poll, even though they won't be on the ballot.  The pollster suggests interviews with the green party voters were split evenly over their major candidate preference, but I'd doubt it works out that way. Tossup.

[Devils30]

Trump is running well behind his 2016 pace in these northern, mainly white states. You see a pattern with MT, WI, MN, ME.  Wonder what Iowa is looking like now.

[DaleCooper]

Trump is running well behind his 2016 pace in these northern, mainly white states. You see a pattern with MT, WI, MN, ME.  Wonder what Iowa is looking like now.

I could see Iowa being a dead-even race based on the numbers coming out of the Rust Belt, Missouri, and now Montana.

[EastOfEden]

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.

[DaleCooper]

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.

Absolutely. Evangelical Christianity's influence on the cultural attitudes is dying in even the most Republican states.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana threads always bring out the best #analysis on Atlas.

[หมูเด้ง]

Would absolutely love for Bullock to pull this out, but the presidential and senate vote will now parallel and track identically with the looming SC nominee battle.  Lean Trump (and unfortunately) Daines.

Montana is a pro-choice state.

It never really wasn’t.

[Rand]

Sad number for an incumbent who won the state by 20 points.

[Alben Barkley]

I don’t get how people are saying good for Daines? He’s tied in this poll, as mentioned. And if Trump is only up by 7, we wouldn’t expect Bullock to be outperforming Biden by 20 points or something; that could only happen if Biden was down big. There’s a ceiling, even for an “elastic” state. As it is, outrunning him by high single digits is good because that looks to be about as much as Trump will win by.

And yeah, Montana is not a very socially conservative state (outside of guns I guess). Not super religious. It’s not a state where the Supreme Court will get a bunch of evangelicals to turn out and vote Republican. There’s a reason Tester held on even after voting against Kavanaugh while McCaskill and Donnelly did not.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

This makes me more likely to believe those polls that have showed Alaska close, given that they are pretty similar states.