Because of the Court, will a Trump win be perceived differently now?

[Person Man]

If nothing else happens, I would say that’s what the MSM take would be. Though like in 2004 and gay marriage, most voters still supported the war by about what Bush won by. In 2020, the way Trump probably wins is that most voters think Trump beat the pandemic. That’s what my head says. People would then be thinking “things are almost back to normal and the new guy is a risk”.

I also know Biden was up 8 points before Ginsburg died, it’s the biggest story, and sex sells. That’s what will be on CNN and Fox News in December. That is, Republicans won big because Americans are ready to make abortion illegal again or at least want to have a honest national conversation about it. If Democrats don’t want to become little more than a regional identity party, they will have to be able to start acting like Roe is already overturned and support much stricter limits on abortion. Perhaps strict gestational limits that would outlaw a significant minority of abortions. Of course we will know in our head is that Biden and his Democrats didn’t deliver and probably wasn’t liberal or aggressive enough.

For what we know, Trump was always going to win because he is really that charismatic and Democrats are really that disorganized.



Who do you think the real and perceived reason be?

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming a successful confirmation doesn't occur before Election Day, there are two potentially countervailing factors to consider.

The first relates to the number of self-identified "conservatives/moderates" voting for Biden who actually lean conservative, versus the number of self-identified "liberals/moderates" voting Trump who actually lean liberal. I think it's rather hard to argue that the former doesn't outnumber the latter (after all, wasn't that the justification for Biden specifically during the primary?). I can't see given this how there aren't a greater number of conservative-leaners supporting Biden who'd rethink their votes than liberal-leaners supporting Trump who'd likewise rethink.

The second is how much "enthusiasm" this actually generates among Democrats and Democratic leaners. The selection and composition of SCOTUS is very much a "high-info" concept; lower-information voters aren't going to understand or even care about this. And with Democrats disproportionately disarming themselves in effect by abandoning canvassing (which is the primary method through which lower-info voters are interacted with in meaningful terms), I question how much net positive effect this can have for the (Atlas) red team. There are of course donations flowing from high-info campaign contributors, but given that Amy McGrath alone raised 10% of what was donated via ActBlue in the 24 hours following RBG's death (in conjunction with most of traditional field techniques being dead on the D side this campaign), I question how much effect even that can have.

I think in real, electoral terms - especially given the unique dynamics of this cycle - that this benefits Trump. Given current poll margins, there are more Biden voters who sympathize with non-Trump conservativism than Trump voters who want a progressive America. Whether anything changes is up for debate, but one unorthodox group clearly outnumbers the other.

[Person Man]

I’m not asking who this will help. I’m asking if this election will be construed as another Religious Right election. Like 2004 or, to a lesser extent, 1990 or 2012.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think so. 2020 just doesn't seem like a Religious Right election to me.

[Person Man]

I don't think so. 2020 just doesn't seem like a Religious Right election to me.

I mean if Trump wins.

[Ferguson97]

I don’t think it’ll be specifically because of abortion but rather the Supreme Court in general.

[Rand]

The rule of recency always perseveres in politics.

[solidcoalition]

I was reading that article posted one RCP the other day about swing areas in Wisconsin, and nearly every voter whether or not undecided, was ardently pro-life. Most were reluctantly leaning to Trump. My guess is this tips their hand.



https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/experiment-wisconsin-might-reveal-key-defeating-trump/616367/

[Adam Griffin]

I’m not asking who this will help. I’m asking if this election will be construed as another Religious Right election. Like 2004 or, to a lesser extent, 1990 or 2012.

OK, then: abortion is a false flag. You ask 100 random non-Ds (or especially D-turned-Rs) why they currently vote R and demand a single answer, and a plurality would always say "abortion". Except that it ignores the fact that the vast majority of those people have either always been Rs or shifted from D to R for other reasons. But hot-button issues are hot-button issues.

I'm reminded of these scenes from The West Wing:

[Person Man]

I’m not asking who this will help. I’m asking if this election will be construed as another Religious Right election. Like 2004 or, to a lesser extent, 1990 or 2012.

OK, then: abortion is a false flag. You ask 100 random non-Ds (or especially D-turned-Rs) why they currently vote R and demand a single answer, and a plurality would always say "abortion". Except that it ignores the fact that the vast majority of those people have either always been Rs or shifted from D to R for other reasons. But hot-button issues are hot-button issues.

I'm reminded of these scenes from The West Wing:

I’m talking about perceptions in the media not what actually happens.

[Adam Griffin]

I’m not asking who this will help. I’m asking if this election will be construed as another Religious Right election. Like 2004 or, to a lesser extent, 1990 or 2012.

OK, then: abortion is a false flag. You ask 100 random non-Ds (or especially D-turned-Rs) why they currently vote R and demand a single answer, and a plurality would always say "abortion". Except that it ignores the fact that the vast majority of those people have either always been Rs or shifted from D to R for other reasons. But hot-button issues are hot-button issues.

I'm reminded of these scenes from The West Wing:

I’m talking about perceptions in the media not what actually happens.

OK, then maybe synchronize your ask? Because your thread title says one thing, your poll question says another, and then your commentary says a third thing.