Is Trump done ?

[Tender Branson]

LOL, no.

His chances are very well alive.

99.9% of all votes have not been cast yet.

He could call Joe Biden "Sleepy Joe" or "China Joe" 50 times during the debate and Joe could lose his nerves or something, or Trump could otherwise find a cunning way to connect with voters.

There could also be a massive polling error as well, because it is undesireable as a Trump supporter to tell your true intentions to a pollster.

And the Supreme Court vacancy could drive additional evangelical voters to the polls now.

And don't underestimate the law-and-order-campaign and hidden messages it sent to voters.

Also, the psychological damages of the pandemic and its results on the election should also not be underestimated.

There are just too many variables not to simply trust Biden's "comfortable" lead in the polls ...

[Stuart98]

He's not done, but we're getting to the point where the odds Biden gets >370 EVs are on the verge of eclipsing the odds he gets <270, and Trump has little time to right the ship.

[Splash]

Okay.

Did we really need a new thread to deal with this question after the dozens of others that preceded it?

Instead of soliciting alternative viewpoints, I think you're just looking for an opportunity to promulgate yours, IMHO.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He is a shoo-in for defeat at this point.

[VAR]

He is. None of those “variables” can save an unpopular incumbent who’s been trailing his opponent by 8-10 points for months.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Let's be honest, if this was any other person not named Trump that was trailing this big and consistently, we'd all say they were DOA. But the doomsayers won't have that.

[Pericles]

Let's be honest, if this was any other person not named Trump that was trailing this big and consistently, we'd all say they were DOA. But the doomsayers won't have that.

It's more of the fact that his win was an upset that leads people to be wary when he is again supposed to lose. An example of this is how the possibility of a hung parliament again loomed so large in the 2019 UK election coverage, and sadly the polls ended up underestimating the Conservative landslide instead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, we may see a rebound in his approvals by Election day, like Bush W received after Bin Laden tape. I am not predicting it,  but voters may see Ds as overreaching by undoing his appointment by calling for a CRT packing plan. In equally divided Senate and 3 blue dog Dems and a tied Senate, Bob Casey Jr, Manchin and Sinema whom think Pelosi is now obstructing the stimulus package, CRT Packing isn't a sure thing. Especially in a 51/50 Senate. GA runoffs may stay R

Bob Casey Jr and Manchin and Sinema are now calling on Pelosi to pass 1.5 T with aid to states

That's why pbower 2A maps of 413 arent probable and I am gonna keep saying this, Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals , he is at Rassy tracking 47

[Person Man]

Let's be honest, if this was any other person not named Trump that was trailing this big and consistently, we'd all say they were DOA. But the doomsayers won't have that.

It's more of the fact that his win was an upset that leads people to be wary when he is again supposed to lose. An example of this is how the possibility of a hung parliament again loomed so large in the 2019 UK election coverage, and sadly the polls ended up underestimating the Conservative landslide instead.

You mean a situation more like 2004 where people expecting a close election but Bush somewhat ran away with it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pelosi is now turning into the obstructionist, on stimulus, Casy, Manchin and Sinema are calling on Pelosi to pass 1.5 T compromise.

Trump said he wants the 1200 stimulus package passed by 10/1, Pelosi will lose her own caucus if Trump numbers go over 51. He is at 47 not 39 percent and see a bump of his polling after filling the vacancy

There wont be any stimulus if Biden loses anyways

[n1240]

Let's be honest, if this was any other person not named Trump that was trailing this big and consistently, we'd all say they were DOA. But the doomsayers won't have that.

Pretty much. If the polls were inverted no one would really be giving Biden a chance and betting markets would probably be giving Trump a 90%+ chance of victory.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

There could also be a massive polling error as well, because it is undesireable as a Trump supporter to tell your true intentions to a pollster.

The idea that Trump voters are inhibited in any way is completely laughable. Massive polling error? Please. In 2012, Obama had a bigger polling error in his favor than Trump in 2016, and nobody said there was a shy Obama effect, because there was zero evidence for it, just like there is no evidence at all for a shy Trump effect.

Republicans believe in it because they have this delusional persecution complex according to which conservatism is an ideology that in spite of controlling the presidency, the Senate and the Supreme Court is under existential threat from imaginary liberal elites that shame conservatives into publicly and privately supporting them, except at one place: the voting booth.

Some Democrats believe in it because they lost the ability to be confident about anything on November 8, 2016.

He could call Joe Biden "Sleepy Joe" or "China Joe" 50 times during the debate and Joe could lose his nerves or something, or Trump could otherwise find a cunning way to connect with voters.

Biden loses his nerves in the debate? I don't think a politician who has been 40 years in the game is going to lose his nerves because Donald Trump was mean to him. I understand this may just be one example of something that could go wrong for Biden, but it isn't likely.

Also, while it is true that in 2016 Trump connected with many kinds of voters such as anti-status quo voters and working class whites, to win this year he's going to need to expand his appeal further. So far he is failing, he doesn't seem to be able to connect with the majority of voters in the same way actually cunning politicians like Bill Clinton did (I feel your pain etc.). This is especially problematic at a time when lots of people are looking for empathetic leadership from the White House.

Another ridiculous notion: Trump as a political genius. Why? 'Cause 2016, of course.

Here are some facts:
- Hillary Clinton was absolutely loathed by the electorate and he barely beat her.
- In 2018, he managed to lose 40 House seats and mobilize Democrats on presidential levels in spite of having the lowest unemployment rate in decades.
- If he didn't act so controversially and instead acted like a normal president, he could easily have had a 60% approval rating in 2017-19.
- He could be cruising to re-election by simply being competent, he's practically the only world leader whose ratings didn't skyrocket after the pandemic started.
- He constantly shoots himself in the foot with damaging remarks such as "losers and suckers" and "I like to play it down".

And don't underestimate the law-and-order-campaign and hidden messages it sent to voters.

What hidden message is there in law-and-order? Law and order messaging is failing, mainly because all of the chaos is happening under his watch. It worked for Nixon because he was running against the party in power. Polls show voters believe Biden is better on the issue and that America would be the same or safer under his watch, even the Trump campaign has finally grasped this and that's why it is pivoting towards the economy, which is their biggest strength.

And the Supreme Court vacancy could drive additional evangelical voters to the polls now.

The vacancy is a powerful motivator for evangelicals and other Republican voters, there's no denying that. But the thing is, those voters were already fired up and the SCOTUS was already in their calculations because they knew that RBG could very well pass away or retire between 2021 and 2025, not to mention other possible vacancies.

I would argue it motivates Democrats more, because there is somewhat more disaffection in their ranks. Wavering voters now have a clear reason to set aside their concerns and cast their ballots for Joe Biden, especially if the campaign plays its cards right and concentrates its message around the idea that if Republicans fill the vacancy reproductive freedom, same-sex marriage and healthcare are on the line.

Also, the psychological damages of the pandemic and its results on the election should also not be underestimated.

I don't know what you mean by psychological effects of the pandemic. Have people gone insane and they are going to vote for Trump in droves now? Is it backlash against lockdowns and other restrictions? If it is the second, the vast majority support the measures that have been taken against the pandemic. Covid conspiracies and scepticism are confined to the realm of the far-right (which is not that small, but it is still a minority and completely in the tank for Donald Trump).

There are just too many variables not to simply trust Biden's "comfortable" lead in the polls ...

Question: Why do you put quotes on comfortable, when it clearly is? No challenger to an elected incumbent has ever been in a better position than Joe Biden is in now. His lead could go up or down, but at the moment it is comfortable.

Also, the double standard that is set for Democrats and Republicans is simply astounding. If Republicans are behind, you can't count them out; if Joe Biden makes a gaffe 20 times less awful that what Trump says on a daily basis, it will sink him; if literally anything happens, it always benefits the GOP.

Which brings me to my final point: events do not necessarily benefit Donald Trump. So-called variables go both ways, events that could benefit Biden are not unthinkable. I can come up with dozens of them: more damaging Trump recordings, a Trump health scare, a good performance in the debates...

The truth is that if Trump were in the same position Biden is now, everyone would say the latter was done.

[Pericles]

Let's be honest, if this was any other person not named Trump that was trailing this big and consistently, we'd all say they were DOA. But the doomsayers won't have that.

It's more of the fact that his win was an upset that leads people to be wary when he is again supposed to lose. An example of this is how the possibility of a hung parliament again loomed so large in the 2019 UK election coverage, and sadly the polls ended up underestimating the Conservative landslide instead.

You mean a situation more like 2004 where people expecting a close election but Bush somewhat ran away with it?

Wasn't 2004 still a pretty close election, just not recount-level close?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must wait to find out on Election day

[Buzz]

Obviously not.  Stupid thread.

[SnowLabrador]

Absolutely not. He's gotten away with everything so far.

[DeSantis4Prez]

No, he's not. I don't think any candidate can be "done" until the actual election.

Remember when Access Hollywood tape came out and many said that Clinton was going to win with a map like this?

It's never a good idea to count out candidates, even if Trump looks like he has 0% chance of winning again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Absolutely not. He's gotten away with everything so far.

What do you mean by that? He's down several points in the polls. It's not the voters who haven't held him accountable, it's the Republicans in Washington.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the election were this Tuesday, yes.

The window for a comeback is closing, but there's still a gap.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

He’s been done since March.  I started this same thread back then, and no one believed me.  But it’s basically played out just I expected.  Biden +9

[American2020]

If the election were this Tuesday, yes.

The window for a comeback is closing, but there's still a gap.

And people in some swing states (VA, MN and many others) are beginning to vote.

[Roll Roons]

Barring a Todd Akin-level gaffe from Biden, I think he is. He no longer has the luxury of running against a historically unpopular opponent, and now has a really poor record to defend. Biden is also hitting 50 in almost all of the key states. A lot more people are voting early or by mail, so the chances of a late event drastically changing the race are lower than they were in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course, but his legacy of Crts is in the line in this election,  if it's a tied Senate, CRT packing isnt gonna happen, but it's a clear majority of Senate CRT packing is probable.

But dont count Trump out, he is fully intending on filling vacancy before election day and if it's a contested election not a landslide, advantage Trump

We are dealing with Trump not a Rubio who would call for a mask mandate

[Senator-elect Spark]

He's only done if he loses Nov. 3rd.

[here2view]

No, but I give him about a 1 in 5 chance of winning at most.