Is TX in play for Biden if Trump wins FL+NC?

[redjohn]

Just checking. You can imagine any margins you want, but do people think TX will be competitive/winnable by Biden if Trump wins FL+NC?

I think it's definitely not in play in this scenario, but I've seen some people who seem to believe it could be and I'm wondering what their reasoning is.

[Rep Jessica]

Trump will win all three! This election will come down to Pa.

[Nyvin]

Probably not.

[redjohn]

Trump will win all three! This election will come down to Pa.

Trump is obviously favored in TX, but I think it's way too soon to say he'll definitively win any of these states. Polling averages+recent results are way too close.

[Stuart98]

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

[redjohn]

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

What makes you think it's plausible? Not saying you're wrong.

[Alben Barkley]

It’s plausible because the states are very different demographically, so how they vote is not all that well correlated with each other. It’s not LIKELY, but it is possible Texas ends up flipping but one or both of FL/NC doesn’t.

[Stuart98]

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

What makes you think it's plausible? Not saying you're wrong.

538 polling average has Biden +1.6 in FL, +1.2 in NC, -0.7 in TX. Just takes a two point polling error in favor of Biden in Texas relative to FL and NC for TX to vote left of them. Totally plausible.

[MT Treasurer]

I think it's definitely not in play in this scenario, but I've seen some people who seem to believe it could be and I'm wondering what their reasoning is.

Insane GOP reliance on strength in urban/suburban areas in TX with no major R-friendly countertrends like in FL/NC and Democratic trends progressing at a much more rapid pace in TX than in FL/NC (where there’s not much evidence of a D trend this election cycle anyway).

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's entirely plausible that Texas votes to the left of both states.

What makes you think it's plausible? Not saying you're wrong.

For one thing, Biden isn't polling all that much worse in TX as compared to NC and FL. Using the same polling errors from 2016, FL would still narrowly go for Biden, NC would narrowly go to Trump, and Biden would also narrowly win TX. Obviously, polling errors aren't bound to be exactly the same, but modestly small polling errors can go a long way. TX is a state where good turnout benefits the Democrats; on paper, TX should be bluer than it is, but in almost all cases it's just because Democrats are unreliable voters. If 2020 is to be a high turnout election, expect, but don't count on polling in places like TX to underestimate Ds.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'll say probably not, but I could see scenarios where it is. Now if Trump also wins Arizona, then I'll say definitely not.

[forza nocta]

If it was just FL that went to Trump, I'd say yes. If it were both, then probably not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Atlas forgets states don't have an order that they're destined to flip in, especially states that have very little in common

[Non Swing Voter]

I'll say this.  I couldn't believe there were points of the night in 2018 that it felt more likely that Beto would win the TX senate seat than Nelson would win the FL one.  So nothing would surprise me when it comes to TX and FL collectively.  NC I expect to go to Trump though.

[Buzz]

Probably not, but I won't commit to a full "NO"

[Eraserhead]

No, definitely not... going by your conditions. Not this year anyway.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I feel like Atlas forgets states don't have an order that they're destined to flip in, especially states that have very little in common

Only feels like yesterday that folks believed MO would go for Obama before VA & especially before NC

[Ferguson97]

Probably not, but it's certainly possible.

Polling shows that all three states are basically within three points of either candidate, so it's not like a narrow Trump win in NC or FL would necessarily mean a win in TX.

[morgieb]

I'd still consider it in play. I don't think that the coalitions in Florida and North Carolina are that similar to that in Texas. Though I do think if Trump wins Florida and North Carolia he's probably carrying Texas too.

[lfromnj]

Yup guys the states that had a 5 point R white vote swing in 2016 and the 7 point D white vote swing are totally comparable because Sun Belt hispanics and muh fast growing or something.

[morgieb]

Yup guys the states that had a 5 point r white vote seing in 2016 and the 7 point D white vote swing are totally comparable because Sun Belt hispanics.

Yeah that's important to remember. NC and Florida still had rural WWC voters to swing. Texas doesn't. Those two states are also getting a lot of retirees whereas Texas immigration is coming from younger people.

[Mr. Smith]

And what were the odds of Virginia to the left of Michigan last election exactly? New Hampshire to the left of Pennsylvania? ...Exactly!

[Xing]

Probably not this year, though I wouldn’t rule it out completely. I’d say it’s a bit more likely NC votes slightly to the right of TX than FL.

[Stuart98]

And what were the odds of Virginia to the left of Michigan last election exactly? New Hampshire to the left of Pennsylvania? ...Exactly!

Your second example is good, but 538 did give Clinton better odds of winning Virginia on election day than they gave her of winning Michigan.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

this is a trump biden voter i know lol