Re: Winner of AZ Senate will be seated Nov 30th

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/elections/the-winner-of-the-arizona-senate-race-could-be-seated-in-time-for-a-vote-on-a-supreme-court-pick.html

Kelly winner of AZ Senate race will be seated in time to confirm RBG replacement. Rejecting a replacement judge along with Murkowski, Collins joining Kelly giving Biden the chance to pick a new justice.

[S019]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/elections/the-winner-of-the-arizona-senate-race-could-be-seated-in-time-for-a-vote-on-a-supreme-court-pick.html

Kelly winner of AZ Senate race will be seated in time to confirm RBG replacement. Rejecting a replacement judge along with Murkowski, Collins joining Kelly giving Biden the chance to pick a new justice.

Nope, you're wrong Collins and Murkowski defecting after Kelly is seated (52-48 R Senate) would be 50-50 with Pence breaking a tie, Romney's vote is still required.

[Lognog]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

Basically, because AZ-Sen is a special election, Kelly can be sworn in sooner than inauguration day, if he wins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

It means that a Lieberman could unironically be responsible for another Republican ideological coup.

It's early December. Due to endangered Senators insisting on delaying the vote until after their electoral judgement and other procedural delays (perhaps thanks to insistences from very particular Senators), McConnell wasn't able to manage the confirmation process before e-day or even November 30th. With McSally out, 2 GOP Senators vote NAY and Pence breaks the tie, confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Loeffler is the 50th vote. Georgian Democrats got over 50% in November, but she remained in place while the race went to a runoff because Lieberman and Tarver split the vote with Warnock.

[Lognog]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

It means that a Lieberman could unironically be responsible for another Republican ideological coup.

It's early December. Due to endangered Senators insisting on delaying the vote until after their electoral judgement and other procedural delays (perhaps thanks to insistences from very particular Senators), McConnell wasn't able to manage the confirmation process before e-day or even November 30th. With McSally out, 2 GOP Senators vote NAY and Pence breaks the tie, confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Loeffler is the 50th vote. Georgian Democrats got over 50% in November, but she remained in place while the race went to a runoff because Lieberman and Tarver split the vote with Warnock.

in your hypothetical McConnell can't get it before e-day, but then after losing a seat magically gets it?

I think if he can't get it before e day, no one will change their minds during the lame duck session, especially if Kelly gets in early

[Lognog]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

Basically, because AZ-Sen is a special election, Kelly can be sworn in sooner than inauguration day, if he wins.

is it only up to him?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What does "could be sworn in as early as November 30th" mean?

It means that a Lieberman could unironically be responsible for another Republican ideological coup.

It's early December. Due to endangered Senators insisting on delaying the vote until after their electoral judgement and other procedural delays (perhaps thanks to insistences from very particular Senators), McConnell wasn't able to manage the confirmation process before e-day or even November 30th. With McSally out, 2 GOP Senators vote NAY and Pence breaks the tie, confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Loeffler is the 50th vote. Georgian Democrats got over 50% in November, but she remained in place while the race went to a runoff because Lieberman and Tarver split the vote with Warnock.

in your hypothetical McConnell can't get it before e-day, but then after losing a seat magically gets it?

I think if he can't get it before e day, no one will change their minds during the lame duck session, especially if Kelly gets in early

The reasoning here is that a bunch of Senators don't want to have to cast a vote on it before e-day as they believe going either way will hurt their reelection chances, but are prepared to do so afterwards. Alternatively, moderate heroes who've already lost feel freer to vote for a justice they'd like after losing their seats but before the next Senate class moves in.

The scenario is not particularly likely, but it'd be a pretty terrible outcome and this year has been nothing if not a series of terrible, unlikely outcomes.

[Non Swing Voter]

So Mitch McConnell is going to have to rush a group of largely very old senators into packed rooms to conduct hearings during a pandemic on an even more condensed schedule so he can steal another senate seat?  What could go wrong?

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Mitch McConnell is going to have to rush a group of largely very old senators into packed rooms to conduct hearings during a pandemic on an even more condensed schedule so he can steal another senate seat?  What could go wrong?

Who said that he will conduct hearings?

[Indy Texas]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

Yes and yes

[brucejoel99]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

Yes and yes

Wrong & wrong: AZ has a Democratic Secretary of State who certifies election results, & if the Senate is in session when Kelly's win is certified, then he'd have to get on a plane to Washington & be sworn in immediately (i.e. no delays from Mitch permitted).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

Yes and yes

Wrong & wrong: AZ has a Democratic Secretary of State who certifies election results, & if the Senate is in session when Kelly's win is certified, then he'd have to get on a plane to Washington & be sworn in immediately (i.e. no delays from Mitch permitted).

Nope. Ducey could submit a Separate election certificate in defiance of the legislature/SOS to create confusion, and the constitution says each house of congress is the final judge of the election of its members. So McConnell can cite some irregularity or something, and postpone the swearing in pending consideration by a senate committee.

You can say it's a nuclear option, but it doesn't mean it isn't possible - in late 2018, Paul Ryan held up Brenda Jones's swear-in for several days until he got certain assurances regarding an apparent conflict of interest.

[Nutmeg]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

Yes and yes

Wrong & wrong: AZ has a Democratic Secretary of State who certifies election results, & if the Senate is in session when Kelly's win is certified, then he'd have to get on a plane to Washington & be sworn in immediately (i.e. no delays from Mitch permitted).

Nope. Ducey could submit a Separate election certificate in defiance of the legislature/SOS to create confusion, and the constitution says each house of congress is the final judge of the election of its members. So McConnell can cite some irregularity or something, and postpone the swearing in pending consideration by a senate committee.

You can say it's a nuclear option, but it doesn't mean it isn't possible - in late 2018, Paul Ryan held up Brenda Jones's swear-in for several days until he got certain assurances regarding an apparent conflict of interest.

The Jones situation was with regard to a legitimate legal question. Intentionally creating confusion in this election would be nakedly political. Not to put it past Mitch, but this would be one heck of a precedent.

[Indy Texas]

Couldn't Ducey deliberately drag his feet on certifying the results? Or, barring that, McConnell drag his feet on swearing Kelly in?

Yes and yes

Wrong & wrong: AZ has a Democratic Secretary of State who certifies election results, & if the Senate is in session when Kelly's win is certified, then he'd have to get on a plane to Washington & be sworn in immediately (i.e. no delays from Mitch permitted).

Nope. Ducey could submit a Separate election certificate in defiance of the legislature/SOS to create confusion, and the constitution says each house of congress is the final judge of the election of its members. So McConnell can cite some irregularity or something, and postpone the swearing in pending consideration by a senate committee.

You can say it's a nuclear option, but it doesn't mean it isn't possible - in late 2018, Paul Ryan held up Brenda Jones's swear-in for several days until he got certain assurances regarding an apparent conflict of interest.

That seat was completely inconsequential to anything going on in the House at that time.

The delay was due to the perfectly reasonable concerns about her simultaneously serving as a US Representative and as a Detroit city councilor since she only won the election for the lame duck term and didn't want to resign from her city position for a monthlong job.

[woodley park]

This thread is mostly right. Romney, Collins, Murkowski, and Kelly would be enough to shut down Trump's nomination. And they should absolutely face maximum pressure to do so, especially if Trump, Collins, Gardner, Tillis, and more have lost their re-election races.