PA - Climate Nexus: Biden +5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Pennsylvania-Climate-Change-Poll-Toplines.pdf

September 8-11
659 registered voters
MoE: 4%

Biden 48%
Trump 43%
Neither candidate or other candidate 3%
Undecided 6%

[Rand]

But muh Scranton Joe...

hahahaha

[Bootes Void]

Why did Woodbury delete his quote, this is on the lower ends of Biden's winning margin I think

[DaleCooper]

43% is so abysmal for an incumbent in Pennsylvania. Frankly, it's embarrassing.

[wbrocks67]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

[หมูเด้ง]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

It’s Biden nationally in high single digits.

[kireev]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

86% including Latinos.  They ask about Latino origin separately.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

It’s Biden nationally in high single digits.

If the margins are anything to go by, we could face the ironic situation in which PA ends up even further to the right of the national average then 2016.

Say something like this
National Biden +9
PA: Biden +5

[หมูเด้ง]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

It’s Biden nationally in high single digits.

If the margins are anything to go by, we could face the ironic situation in which PA ends up even further to the right of the national average then 2016.

Say something like this
National Biden +9
PA: Biden +5

At 8%, it would actually be a zero trend, right?

[Skill and Chance]

86% white sample... so a little too white. But most of the polling is seeming to average to about Biden +5/6 right now.

Interesting that for all the talk of ticket-splitting, the GCB is also D+5 here.

Also, Trump still stuck in the lower 40s.

It’s Biden nationally in high single digits.

If the margins are anything to go by, we could face the ironic situation in which PA ends up even further to the right of the national average then 2016.

Say something like this
National Biden +9
PA: Biden +5

Ehhh... this looked plausible midsummer but less so now.  National is Biden+6-7 now and PA has stayed at Biden +5-6.  Still right of the PV but that would be a Dem trend if it holds.

[Splash]

I still haven't totally bought into the narrative that PA is 3-5% to the right of WI and MI this year but does sort of seem that way. Hard to believe that Biden is running even with Trump in PA-10 if that's the case.