VA-05 - GSG (D): Trump +8

[VAR]

Sep 10-14, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Trump 51% (+2)
Biden 43% (-2)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pfIxsYBhbp8nBwf4g93zysdkgZFqJK7r/view

[Skill and Chance]

Was Trump +11 (53/42) in 2016.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

That’s...not good at all.

[Skill and Chance]

That’s...not good at all.

A district that is ~2/3rds rural ~1/3rd college town would be the prime place to trend hard toward Trump vs. 2016 based on the poll crosstabs we keep seeing.  This is good turf for Trump.

[Bootes Void]

Central Virginia seems like prime Trump territory and besides Trump can still absolutely do worse than the polls suggest

[Interlocutor]

That’s...not good at all.

A district that is ~2/3rds rural ~1/3rd college town would be the prime place to trend hard toward Trump vs. 2016 based on the poll crosstabs we keep seeing.  This is good turf for Trump.

Let the man doom in peace! 

[Raccoon]

That’s...not good at all.

A district that is ~2/3rds rural ~1/3rd college town would be the prime place to trend hard toward Trump vs. 2016 based on the poll crosstabs we keep seeing.  This is good turf for Trump.

Plus downstate Virginia, despite its southern character, has shown willingness to elect Democrats in fairly heavy GOP districts.

Trump could win by 9 or 10 and Webb could win by 1.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, yeah thats not a really great result considering even Cockburn only lot her house race by 6 in 2018 and Trump won by 11 in 2016. You'd think Biden would at least be matching Cockburn numbers here.

How did Kaine do here? Didn't he just lose it? I would expect Biden to do maybe like 3-4% worse than Kaine

[Raccoon]

Hm, yeah thats not a really great result considering even Cockburn only lot her house race by 6 in 2018 and Trump won by 11 in 2016. You'd think Biden would at least be matching Cockburn numbers here.

How did Kaine do here? Didn't he just lose it? I would expect Biden to do maybe like 3-4% worse than Kaine

Stewart won it 50.3% to 48.0% for Kaine.

This district is a demographic nightmare for Democrats in a 2020 climate..

[DINGO Joe]

The previous internal had Trump +4 and Webb trailing Good by 6 but now it's Trump +8 but Webb only trailing by 1.  Not much internal consistency.

[NOVA Green]

DEM's need to let go of the whole "Gun Ban" scene...

NRA is already floundering, and although it might be a "wedge issue" in large City 'Burbs and Exurbs that favor DEMs, is one of the major reason for collapse of support among DEMs in many Rural and Small Town WWC places, including Dukakis '88 Country....

Environmental Policies play much better in many places like VA-05 than "Gun Bans"....

[Ferguson97]

DEM's need to let go of the whole "Gun Ban" scene...

NRA is already floundering, and although it might be a "wedge issue" in large City 'Burbs and Exurbs that favor DEMs, is one of the major reason for collapse of support among DEMs in many Rural and Small Town WWC places, including Dukakis '88 Country....

Environmental Policies play much better in many places like VA-05 than "Gun Bans"....

I don't believe anyone is a single-issue gun policy voter

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

DEM's need to let go of the whole "Gun Ban" scene...

NRA is already floundering, and although it might be a "wedge issue" in large City 'Burbs and Exurbs that favor DEMs, is one of the major reason for collapse of support among DEMs in many Rural and Small Town WWC places, including Dukakis '88 Country....

Environmental Policies play much better in many places like VA-05 than "Gun Bans"....

I don't believe anyone is a single-issue gun policy voter

...Oh yes they are.
Gun control is probably the third biggest bloc of “single-issue” voters after abortion and the environment.