Redfield & Wilton (national): Biden +8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Redfield & Wilton, Sep. 15-16, 2070 LV (1-week change)

Biden 49 (nc)
Trump 41 (+1)
Jorgensen 2 (nc)
Hawkins 1 (nc)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 1.97%
Changes with September 7-8 poll

Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Don't know 7% (n/c)

Pre-rounding, it's Biden +7%.

[wbrocks67]

This dropped Biden's national polling average on 538. Imagine that

[Skill and Chance]

This dropped Biden's national polling average on 538. Imagine that

Well, he did decline 1% from the last poll by the same company.  At this point there's undeniably been some tightening nationally, perhaps 2% since this time in August.  And we are getting really far away from the conventions for it to be a bounce.  I still expect Biden to win (especially after the SCOTUS situation), but this is real.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This dropped Biden's national polling average on 538. Imagine that

Well, he did decline 1% from the last poll by the same company.  At this point there's undeniably been some tightening nationally, perhaps 2% since this time in August.  And we are getting really far away from the conventions for it to be a bounce.  I still expect Biden to win (especially after the SCOTUS situation), but this is real.

It's probably not a bounce, but those do tend to register in polls up to 3 weeks after a convention so long as they're not interrupted by the next convention.

[Dr. Arch]

This dropped Biden's national polling average on 538. Imagine that

Well, he did decline 1% from the last poll by the same company.  At this point there's undeniably been some tightening nationally, perhaps 2% since this time in August.  And we are getting really far away from the conventions for it to be a bounce.  I still expect Biden to win (especially after the SCOTUS situation), but this is real.

It's probably not a bounce, but those do tend to register in polls up to 3 weeks after a convention so long as they're not interrupted by the next convention.

My friends, it's 1%. It's statistical noise and models should be designed to not weigh statistical noise heavily.

[wbrocks67]

This dropped Biden's national polling average on 538. Imagine that

Well, he did decline 1% from the last poll by the same company.  At this point there's undeniably been some tightening nationally, perhaps 2% since this time in August.  And we are getting really far away from the conventions for it to be a bounce.  I still expect Biden to win (especially after the SCOTUS situation), but this is real.

We've gotten little to no high quality polling nationally in the last 2 weeks, so no, I don't really think you can say one way or the other. Not to mention, other pollsters like Morning Consult, Ipsos, R&W, YouGov have been static for weeks now. NBC/Marist and Momouth RV #s are off maybe like 1 pt, which could easily be noise.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Ds already says that they are looking at AZ, MN, MI, WI and PA, not a 413 EC map, Biden and Trump have been planted in all 5 states since Labor day, not NC, OH, IA, FL or TX. The 413 landslide is over, especially with a 6-3 conservative CRT putting restrictions on SSM, Obamacare and amnesty. Immigration reform and amnesty probably wont happen