How will senators (specifically those up for re-election) vote on a Trump SC pick to replace RGB?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is my map:



It'll prolly be a very close vote in the end.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think anyone has asked him since, but Grassley has repeatedly said (even in Fox News interviews as recently as a year or two ago) that he won't support a 2020 SCOTUS nomination.

[Ferguson97]

Grassley, Murkowksi, and Collins vote no (along with every single Democrat).

Pence breaks the tie.

[😥]

Murkowski, Grassley and Romney vote NAY, as well as 47 Democrats. 50 other Republicans, including Collins, vote YEA with Pence breaking the tie

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski, Grassley and Romney vote NAY, as well as 47 Democrats. 50 other Republicans, including Collins, vote YEA with Pence breaking the tie

Collins knows if she is the deciding yea vote her senate seat instantly becomes likely D. My guess is shell use optimal strategy and abstain only once she knows that she won' be the deciding vote. Running to the center helps her in  state like ME because of RCV, at least in theory.

[DaleCooper]

They need 51 votes to hold a hearing, so if Grassley, Murkowski, Collins, and Romney stick to their word (which is a big if) then there will be no confirmation hearing.

If a hearing is held, then I'm willing to bet a lot that the justice goes through.

[coloradocowboi]

They need 51 votes to hold a hearing, so if Grassley, Murkowski, Collins, and Romney stick to their word (which is a big if) then there will be no confirmation hearing.

If a hearing is held, then I'm willing to bet a lot that the justice goes through.

It's gonna come down to Collins and Grassley. Romney and Murkowski have already gone on the record saying they don't want a vote.

The fact that Gardner is signaling that he will vote yes is very interesting because it just demonstrates that he also doesn't think he can win re-election lol

[DaleCooper]

They need 51 votes to hold a hearing, so if Grassley, Murkowski, Collins, and Romney stick to their word (which is a big if) then there will be no confirmation hearing.

If a hearing is held, then I'm willing to bet a lot that the justice goes through.

It's gonna come down to Collins and Grassley. Romney and Murkowski have already gone on the record saying they don't want a vote.

The fact that Gardner is signaling that he will vote yes is very interesting because it just demonstrates that he also doesn't think he can win re-election lol

I think there's a very, very small chance that cooler heads might think that the Party is better off hoping to maintain its majority and bully Biden into a milquetoast nominee (assuming he wins). They have to be considering the possibility that delegitimizing SCOTUS and practically forcing Democrats to pack the court the second they get a majority, whenever that ends up happening though this vote makes it more likely to happen this election, will negate their gains from the Trump years. 

[S019]

Only Collins breaks party lines of those up this year (she'll lose, if she doesn't, and Gardner, McSally, and Jones are all already doomed)

Overall I think Romney, Collins and/or Murkowski flip, maybe with another surprise R (Grassley/Alexander/Portman/Capito)

[DaleCooper]

Only Collins breaks party lines of those up this year (she'll lose, if she doesn't, and Gardner, McSally, and Jones are all already doomed)

Overall I think Romney, Collins and/or Murkowski flip, maybe with another surprise R (Grassley/Alexander/Portman/Capito)

Of those surprise Rs, I think Grassley is the most likely, followed by Alexander for similar reasons. They're old, (likely) retiring, and seem to have an interest in maintaining the Senate as an institution. Democrats' best bet is to court these Senators and make them understand that SCOTUS and the Senate will be dramatically reshaped the second Democrats get a Senate majority, whether that happens in 20, 22, 24, or later.

[Non Swing Voter]

Romney voted to impeach Trump, a much harder vote than voting no on this.  I don't think he will support a new justice before the election or in a lame duck (unless Trump wins re-election, in which case all this is moot anyways).

[NewYorkExpress]

Romney is the only Republican to vote no (and I'm not even sure he will).

[Calthrina950]

They need 51 votes to hold a hearing, so if Grassley, Murkowski, Collins, and Romney stick to their word (which is a big if) then there will be no confirmation hearing.

If a hearing is held, then I'm willing to bet a lot that the justice goes through.

It's gonna come down to Collins and Grassley. Romney and Murkowski have already gone on the record saying they don't want a vote.

The fact that Gardner is signaling that he will vote yes is very interesting because it just demonstrates that he also doesn't think he can win re-election lol

Gardner has never broken with the Republican Party on any significant vote-keep in mind that he voted against Congress's override of Trump's emergency declaration, to say nothing of his votes on Kavanaugh, witnesses, impeachment, the AHCA, and the tax bill-across all of which, he stuck to the party line. This of course is a major factor as to why he's going to lose decisively in just over a month from now.

[SnowLabrador]

Romney is the only Republican to vote no (and I'm not even sure he will).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated final vote Prediction:



Might just be being a little pessimistic after Romney announced. I think Collins and Murkowski abstain. Safe is literally 100% sure, Likely is 95%+, Lean is 80%.

[Ferguson97]

Updated final vote Prediction:



Might just be being a little pessimistic after Romney announced. I think Collins and Murkowski abstain. Safe is literally 100% sure, Likely is 95%+, Lean is 80%.

Collins might as well vote no to increase her chances in the Senate race (though she's probably losing regardless).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated final vote Prediction:



Might just be being a little pessimistic after Romney announced. I think Collins and Murkowski abstain. Safe is literally 100% sure, Likely is 95%+, Lean is 80%.

Collins might as well vote no to increase her chances in the Senate race (though she's probably losing regardless).

That's what I'm thinking too.

[Tekken_Guy]

Updated final vote Prediction:



Might just be being a little pessimistic after Romney announced. I think Collins and Murkowski abstain. Safe is literally 100% sure, Likely is 95%+, Lean is 80%.

Umm, Hawaii?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated final vote Prediction:



Might just be being a little pessimistic after Romney announced. I think Collins and Murkowski abstain. Safe is literally 100% sure, Likely is 95%+, Lean is 80%.

Umm, Hawaii?

Yikes that's my fault.