The fight to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg megathread

[brucejoel99]

So correct me if I’m wrong but I see four scenarios:

A conservative justice is confirmed, Biden is elected President
A conservative justice is confirmed, Trump is elected President
Biden is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed
Trump is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed

All four scenarios get us a 6-3 conservative court. We need to suck it up and take it. They won’t overturn marriage equality, and John Roberts has been a pretty swingy vote. Try and be optimistic.

Okay, you're wrong:

4 Republican Senators refuse to confirm a lame duck appointment, Biden is elected President, a liberal justice is confirmed

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1307709781075951618
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1307709957765246976

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1307715357982023680

[Mike Thick]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

[SevenEleven]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1307696306782076930

♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

Collins statement said the winner of the November 3rd election should pick the nominee

[Ferguson97]

So correct me if I’m wrong but I see four scenarios:

A conservative justice is confirmed, Biden is elected President
A conservative justice is confirmed, Trump is elected President
Biden is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed
Trump is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed

All four scenarios get us a 6-3 conservative court. We need to suck it up and take it. They won’t overturn marriage equality, and John Roberts has been a pretty swingy vote. Try and be optimistic.

Okay, you're wrong:

4 Republican Senators refuse to confirm a lame duck appointment, Biden is elected President, a liberal justice is confirmed

It's more likely that Jo Jorgensen wins the election than 4 Republican Senators refusing to vote for a nominee.

[Mike Thick]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

Collins statement said the winner of the November 3rd election should pick the nominee

Ah, okay. Still, if Murk is staying silent... yeah

[brucejoel99]

So correct me if I’m wrong but I see four scenarios:

A conservative justice is confirmed, Biden is elected President
A conservative justice is confirmed, Trump is elected President
Biden is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed
Trump is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed

All four scenarios get us a 6-3 conservative court. We need to suck it up and take it. They won’t overturn marriage equality, and John Roberts has been a pretty swingy vote. Try and be optimistic.

Okay, you're wrong:

4 Republican Senators refuse to confirm a lame duck appointment, Biden is elected President, a liberal justice is confirmed

It's more likely that Jo Jorgensen wins the election than 4 Republican Senators refusing to vote for a nominee.

It really isn't, no, given Collins/Murkowski are already confirmed, Romney is likely, & Grassley/Alexander are very possible. Funny attempt at a joke, though.

[SevenEleven]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

Collins statement said the winner of the November 3rd election should pick the nominee

Collins will backtrack on this once Gideon ends her career for good.

[SevenEleven]

So correct me if I’m wrong but I see four scenarios:

A conservative justice is confirmed, Biden is elected President
A conservative justice is confirmed, Trump is elected President
Biden is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed
Trump is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed

All four scenarios get us a 6-3 conservative court. We need to suck it up and take it. They won’t overturn marriage equality, and John Roberts has been a pretty swingy vote. Try and be optimistic.

Okay, you're wrong:

4 Republican Senators refuse to confirm a lame duck appointment, Biden is elected President, a liberal justice is confirmed

It's more likely that Jo Jorgensen wins the election than 4 Republican Senators refusing to vote for a nominee.

It really isn't, no, given Collins/Murkowski are already confirmed, Romney is likely, & Grassley/Alexander are very possible. Funny attempt at a joke, though.

Sorry dude, but expecting Republicans to act in good faith is not even naive at this point. It's completely detached from reality.

[Ferguson97]

So correct me if I’m wrong but I see four scenarios:

A conservative justice is confirmed, Biden is elected President
A conservative justice is confirmed, Trump is elected President
Biden is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed
Trump is elected, a conservative justice is confirmed

All four scenarios get us a 6-3 conservative court. We need to suck it up and take it. They won’t overturn marriage equality, and John Roberts has been a pretty swingy vote. Try and be optimistic.

Okay, you're wrong:

4 Republican Senators refuse to confirm a lame duck appointment, Biden is elected President, a liberal justice is confirmed

It's more likely that Jo Jorgensen wins the election than 4 Republican Senators refusing to vote for a nominee.

It really isn't, no, given Collins/Murkowski are already confirmed, Romney is likely, & Grassley/Alexander are very possible. Funny attempt at a joke, though.

Collins and Murkowski are lying.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1307715357982023680

Murkowski will vote yes on a lameduck confirmation.

And when Susan Collins loses re-election, she will also vote yes because she will have nothing to lose.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

Collins statement said the winner of the November 3rd election should pick the nominee

Collins will backtrack on this once Gideon ends her career for good.

If they can't get it through prior to the election, they aren't getting it through in December after a Biden/Dem senate win.  They might get it through after a Biden/GOP senate win though.  

[dotard]

McConnell strikes me as someone who’s massively overplayed his hand since he became majority leader six years ago. Putting up someone now is an incredibly risky gambit. He’s forcing his vulnerable people to take an unpopular stand that there’s probably just not time for. I really do think if they approve someone, Pelosi will impeach several people. If they’re successful in jamming someone through, Biden will pack the court. This would also mean the Ds take the senate and can make DC and PR states, making it harder for Rs to win back the senate. You can only push people so far before they break and he’s pushed Ds past the point of being able to reason with him. I think he’s about to get holy hell rained on him and he’s only got himself to blame. Idk if the Rs in the caucus will stick with him much longer because he’s f**ked everything up.

[President Johnson]

McConnell strikes me as someone who’s massively overplayed his hand since he became majority leader six years ago. Putting up someone now is an incredibly risky gambit. He’s forcing his vulnerable people to take an unpopular stand that there’s probably just not time for. I really do think if they approve someone, Pelosi will impeach several people. If they’re successful in jamming someone through, Biden will pack the court. This would also mean the Ds take the senate and can make DC and PR states, making it harder for Rs to win back the senate. You can only push people so far before they break and he’s pushed Ds past the point of being able to reason with him. I think he’s about to get holy hell rained on him and he’s only got himself to blame. Idk if the Rs in the caucus will stick with him much longer because he’s f**ked everything up.

Maybe Moscow Mitch has realized Biden is on track to win and the senate majority in jeopardy one way or the other, so why not ramming through a last nominee and cement a conservative majority? Hoping that the new Supreme Court will overturn a number of bills passed in the next congress and executive actions by President Biden. Mitch isn't winning on most issues with the American public as a whole, so he uses the judiciary to stop liberal stuff to being enacted into law. This will be his legacy for decades to come.

However, I think it would be a smarter strategy to wait and make the election about a referendum on the court. This may win Trump back some conservatives considerng to vote for Biden or abstain, mainly because they are disgusted by his behavior, but want to see a right-leaning court. Waiting would also remove pressure from vulnerable senators, as you already said, and wouldn't make them look extremely hypocritical (what swing voters probably don't like at all).

[7,052,770]

Most likely situation: Collins and Murkowski haven't decided what they would do in a hypothetical lame duck session and are just waiting to see how things develop.

[Badger]

Yeah, it's over. If she (and Collins) were going to oppose in the lame duck, they would say so.

[Tekken_Guy]

McConnell strikes me as someone who’s massively overplayed his hand since he became majority leader six years ago. Putting up someone now is an incredibly risky gambit. He’s forcing his vulnerable people to take an unpopular stand that there’s probably just not time for. I really do think if they approve someone, Pelosi will impeach several people. If they’re successful in jamming someone through, Biden will pack the court. This would also mean the Ds take the senate and can make DC and PR states, making it harder for Rs to win back the senate. You can only push people so far before they break and he’s pushed Ds past the point of being able to reason with him. I think he’s about to get holy hell rained on him and he’s only got himself to blame. Idk if the Rs in the caucus will stick with him much longer because he’s f**ked everything up.

Maybe Moscow Mitch has realized Biden is on track to win and the senate majority in jeopardy one way or the other, so why not ramming through a last nominee and cement a conservative majority? Hoping that the new Supreme Court will overturn a number of bills passed in the next congress and executive actions by President Biden. Mitch isn't winning on most issues with the American public as a whole, so he uses the judiciary to stop liberal stuff to being enacted into law. This will be his legacy for decades to come.

However, I think it would be a smarter strategy to wait and make the election about a referendum on the court. This may win Trump back some conservatives considerng to vote for Biden or abstain, mainly because they are disgusted by his behavior, but want to see a right-leaning court. Waiting would also remove pressure from vulnerable senators, as you already said, and wouldn't make them look extremely hypocritical (what swing voters probably don't like at all).

Honestly I’m quite skeptical of this. The conservatives who would vote for Trump over the court were probably already staunchly behind him. The ones who Biden won over are fairly moderate at best and don’t want to see Roe v. Wade overturned or the ACA repealed.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Really there is no reason for these fence-sitters to not vote to confirm, so long as they are able to stay wishy-washy before the election and then vote after it. Voters have a short attention span. Being a Republican and confirming a conservative judge, even in a sketchy circumstance, is not going to lose anyone their seat, especially if their next election isn't for two, four, or six whole years.

Did confirming rapist Kavanaugh end up costing anyone anything (I am suspecting the answer is no, but I'm genuinely asking)? Why should confirming a standard conservative woman judge be such a liability?

[brucejoel99]

Really there is no reason for these fence-sitters to not vote to confirm, so long as they are able to stay wishy-washy before the election and then vote after it. Voters have a short attention span. Being a Republican and confirming a conservative judge, even in a sketchy circumstance, is not going to lose anyone their seat, especially if their next election isn't for two, four, or six whole years.

Did confirming rapist Kavanaugh end up costing anyone anything (I am suspecting the answer is no, but I'm genuinely asking)? Why should confirming a standard conservative woman judge be such a liability?

If she hadn't voted to do so, Susan Collins would be in a much better position than she currently is at the moment, so yes.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755530748915712

[Brittain33]

Most likely situation: Collins and Murkowski haven't decided what they would do in a hypothetical lame duck session and are just waiting to see how things develop.

I agree. They may vote yes in a lame duck, but they're keeping the option open.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755530748915712

Oh I’m sure what the people want most definitely factors into Mitch McConnell’s plans.  /s

[Badger]

On a side note, we contributed $150 Joe Biden an ordered a lawn Sign, Plus $110 to the dscc today.

[Abolish ICE]

Hot take: Collins and Murkowski are waiting to see whether the Dems actually manage to flip the Senate.