Does RBG's death help or hurt Senate Republicans?

[new_patomic]

The only Democrat this probably hurts is Jones, but he was already DOA.

Otherwise, every single Dem challenger in a competitive race just got a massive fundraising boost, and something to boost Dem-friendly turnout with.

[MarkD]

I think this increases enthusiasm on both sides so no difference.

And because so few swing voters care about Supreme Court nominations, I agree.

[coloradocowboi]

I think this increases enthusiasm on both sides so no difference.

And because so few swing voters care about Supreme Court nominations, I agree.

Swing voters usually are low info voters and prolly have no idea what the SCOTUS even is

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is growing skepticism on changing the rules on CRT packing plan, if Rs dont like a rule for debating a piece of legislation,  they can use their unanimous consent request without a filibuster from legislation from coming up; consequently,  if an R becomes Prez in 2024, with an R Senate, they will reduce the CRT back to 9

Heroes Act was blocked by Senator Sullivan, using unanimous consent powers due to what he saw was an overreach by Pelosi.

Senate is not the House, it's a Parliament

[Indy Texas]

"Hello, is this Jay Powell? Sir, I believe the Democrats may have stolen the Federal Reserve money printer. Just thought you'd like to know."

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1307153299922092032?s=20

[DaleCooper]

Polling indicates that Trump is less trusted on SCOTUS than his percent of the vote is in a lot of these states. Between that, Republicans having to answer for blatant hypocrisy (call them "the Swamp"), and the fundraising, which alone really is enough for this to hurt Republicans, this obviously isn't good for them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

"Hello, is this Jay Powell? Sir, I believe the Democrats may have stolen the Federal Reserve money printer. Just thought you'd like to know."

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1307153299922092032?s=20

Democrats raising a bunch of money doesn't mean it helps them, unless you're crazy enough to think that Amy McGrath is actually going to win.

[Indy Texas]

"Hello, is this Jay Powell? Sir, I believe the Democrats may have stolen the Federal Reserve money printer. Just thought you'd like to know."

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1307153299922092032?s=20

Democrats raising a bunch of money doesn't mean it helps them, unless you're crazy enough to think that Amy McGrath is actually going to win.

The Pod Save America people have raised like $17M since last night and none of it is going to Amy McGrath.

[woodley park]

It hurts the GOP candidates because this will paper over any divisions that may have existed between the wings of the Democratic Party. It will super charge the Democratic base, whereas the GOP was already as charged as it was going to get. Meanwhile, it’s fair to say that Obama-Trump voters likely aren’t big on conservative social policies, so they may align more with the Democrats this time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think it could help the Republicans in more Republican states. Jones is going to get blanched, but Collins and Gardner are even more screwed than before.

[NYDem]

In the competitive races, it's going to help Democrats more.

Gardner basically signed his political death warrant with his announcement today. Gardner's last chance of differentiating himself from Trump was to go against the nomination, and he didn't. Bear hugging the President is not going to work in Colorado because Trump is probably losing the state by 10 points. It's not probable that Gardner would have won otherwise, but I really have to question his logic. Likely D -> Safe D.

In Arizona it's not going to have much effect given how large Kelly's lead currently is. Given the unpopularity of filling the seat nationally (~-13%), I can't imagine that doing so is popular in Arizona, only a couple points right of the nation. It won't make a difference, and if it does it probably helps Kelly. Likely D -> Likely D.

In Maine, it may have actually helped Collins a small amount. She did the smart thing politically and opposed the nomination, but it's probably too little and too late to matter. If she attempts to campaign on it in any real way, its going to make voters think about her last Supreme Court vote which is something she really needs them not to do. It might sway some Maine moderates her way, but its not going to matter much. Lean D -> Lean D.

In North Carolina its a wash. Thom Tillis is running behind Trump, so trying to get close to him politically is a strategy that makes sense. The problem is that bringing Republicans home can only get him so far. The state may go (non-Atlas) blue this year and he's going to need to have some level of crossover appeal if that happens. Obviously his actions after RBG's death are going to reduce that (if any existed in the first place). Tossup -> Tossup.

I can't see it having much effect in Texas or Georgia, both states are swinging left and have growing suburbs which are reducing the importance of rural social conservatives. Making the campaign about Roe v. Wade or the Supreme Court won't help Republicans, because those states are probably evenly split on the issue anyway. Lean R -> Lean R for both.

It may hurt the Democrats in some of their reach states. Ernst, Graham, Daines, Sullivan and Marshall are all going to try to use it to hit their Democratic opponents. It's a good strategy to appeal to conservatives who are thinking of crossing over. It might backfire in Kansas though. Kansas isn't as socially conservative or pro-life as South Carolina or Iowa, so making the election about abortion could be a mistake. On the whole it makes SC, AK, MT, and IA a bit more Republican.

The only state where I'd say it definitely helps the Republicans is Alabama. The state that gave us the 6-week abortion ban is going to love replacing RBG with a pro-lifer. It's not like Doug Jones' chances were good before, but he's finished. Likely R -> Safe R.

It also helps McConnell in Kentucky, but that race was Safe R anyway, no matter how many million dollars #resist moms throw at Amy McGrath.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Montana, Iowa and Kansas are now off the table..

Not a bad take..

[I need an explanation]

Yeah it helped

[Alben Barkley]

I don’t think RBG’s death in itself helped. But maybe the “pack the courts” stuff did, kept some people voting R downballot to prevent that from happening.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It may have been decisive in Collins' case and it seemed Gardner couldn't have been saved anyway.

[SenatorCouzens]

Certainly helped in all the solid red states, though it looks like none of them needed a bounce afterall. Barrett polled very well in SC, and Graham raised 17 million in a single day (the third day of the hearing). In the light red states like IA and NC it presumably helped a bit but that's hard to say. AZ harder to say. In CO, Gardner wasn't going to win regardless.

The only race I see it potentially being determinative is Maine, where it may have allowed Collins to cancel out her Kavanaugh vote with just enough Mainers.

[Pericles]

Ironically it might have saved Collins with her vote against Barrett lol. It's possible that it had an impact in NC if that is really close, but I doubt it had much impact overall. You could just as easily argue that it was more of an energizer for the Democratic base and benefited the Democrats slightly, so maybe it cost Perdue an outright majority. This wasn't an election where lots of people changed their minds.

[KaiserDave]

Other than Maine, I really don't think it had any impact. Polarization was happening either way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Other than Maine, I really don't think it had any impact. Polarization was happening either way.

It reduced ticket splitting (with the notable exception of Collins) and might have saved Tillis.

[One Term Floridian]

It helped. Big time. The only thing in Republican’ minds is mUh c0UrTs apparently lol

[KaiserDave]

Other than Maine, I really don't think it had any impact. Polarization was happening either way.

It reduced ticket splitting (with the notable exception of Collins) and might have saved Tillis.

I think that was going to happen either way