Does RBG's death help or hurt Senate Republicans?

[Pollster]

Remember when a Supreme Court confirmation battle energized the GOP base in 2018 and Democrats still gained 40 House seats, overperformed in countless others, and overperformed Trump by double digits in multiple Senate races in states that he won by landslide margins?

Good times

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Helps:

Tillis
Ernst
Collins (If she votes no or announces no support)
Tuberville
Daines
Cornyn
Perdue
McSalley

Hurts:
James
Lewis
Collins (if she votes yes)
Graham
Gardner (no matter how he votes)
 

[JerryArkansas]

The fact people think this helps them says everything wrong about political thought on this forum.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The fact people think this helps them says everything wrong about political thought on this forum.

What's your counterargument? I'm not saying it will help them, but it gives some like Collins a CHANCE to improve their standing, but also make them even more DOA. Giving the underdog a chance to improve their standing is a net positive for the underdog since at least they have a new opportunity.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Helps:

Tillis
Ernst
Collins (If she votes no or announces no support)
Tuberville
Daines
Cornyn
Perdue
McSalley

Hurts:
James
Lewis
Collins (if she votes yes)
Graham
Gardner (no matter how he votes)
 

How exactly does it hurt Graham..?

His entire issue at the moment, is that he's underperforming Trump in South Carolina by 5-6 points..

Voting yes on a supreme court nomination, would go someway to solidifying the base behind him..

[ProgressiveModerate]

Helps:

Tillis
Ernst
Collins (If she votes no or announces no support)
Tuberville
Daines
Cornyn
Perdue
McSalley

Hurts:
James
Lewis
Collins (if she votes yes)
Graham
Gardner (no matter how he votes)
 

How exactly does it hurt Graham..?

His entire issue at the moment, is that he's underperforming Trump in South Carolina by 5-6 points..

Voting yes on a supreme court nomination, would go someway to solidifying the base behind him..

Yeah this almost certainly helps Graham purely because of partisanship.

[ShadowRocket]

I think this increases enthusiasm on both sides so no difference.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Graham has said previously that he would not allow a vote on a nominee in the last year of Trump's term. even stating so after McConnell first proposed the idea of doing away with the 2016 precedent.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-18/lindsey-graham-in-2018-senate-wont-vote-on-scotus-pick-in-last-year-of-trump-term

If he sticks with that that will hurt him with his base, who might go to a third party.

If he tries to confirm, it feeds into the Democratic talking point that he is a trump sycophant with no backbone. Also as judiciary chairman he will be center stage to any moves to rush through the nominee. 

[Kuumo]

Why would this help them??? Were conservatives not already supercharged? Are polls not showing +90% certainty on both sides?

Atlas is full of morons

The rational side of my brain agrees with this. I'll admit that the "gut feeling" side of my brain made me have a mental heart attack when I saw the headline, but let's keep this in perspective. The percentages of undecideds in polls were already low before this happened, and I'd say it actually helps Democrats in Colorado, Arizona, and Maine. The states where it hurts Democrats significantly, such as Iowa and Kansas, were never close to Democrats' path to 50 Senate seats, so while it certainly helps some Senate Republicans, the overall race for the Senate is roughly the same as before. Biden, Gideon, and Cunningham winning is all Democrats need to retake the Senate, and the probability of this event is roughly unchanged.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Graham has said previously that he would not allow a vote on a nominee in the last year of Trump's term. even stating so after McConnell first proposed the idea of doing away with the 2016 precedent.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-18/lindsey-graham-in-2018-senate-wont-vote-on-scotus-pick-in-last-year-of-trump-term

If he sticks with that that will hurt him with his base, who might go to a third party.

If he tries to confirm, it feeds into the Democratic talking point that he is a trump sycophant with no backbone. Also as judiciary chairman he will be center stage to any moves to rush through the nominee. 

So he either confirms, and gets re-elected.. but in the meantime will be called a Trump sycophant by Dems (oh the horror lol).

Or he refuses, and loses re-election.

Hmm, I wonder which path he'll choose.

[Indy Texas]

Sometimes the stupidity of "grassroots" voters/donors makes me want to throw my laptop across the room.

Amy McGrath is going to be sipping daiquiris on a beach somewhere with all the money she's raised for her absolutely pointless sacrificial lamb campaign.

https://twitter.com/jjnett/status/1307137982210674689?s=20

https://twitter.com/joelockhart/status/1307121499556454404?s=20

[Horus]

There are only four possible no votes - Murkowski, Romney, Collins and Grassley.

[Ferguson97]

Hurts: Susan Collins, Martha McSally, Cory Gardener

Helps: Every other Republican

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Anyone who says this helps the GOP because it coalesces evangelicals around Trump is a moron who just wants to say "Told you so" if Trump wins.



If the Senate votes on a nominee after the election: Both sides intensify turnout, but no difference or a wash

If the Senate takes up a nominee vote by November 1: Juiced up turnout among Democrats

If the Senate confirms a nominee by November 1: Juiced up turnout among Democrats + Republicans squandering the one incentive they could turn out for =

[Woody]

This will immensily help Collins, she gets to play moderate (just like Manchin in 18') and Trump's nominee still gets voted in because of the extra GOP votes.

[pppolitics]

It probably help Republicans in red states (i.e. Ernst) while hurt Republicans in blue states (i.e. Collins)

[VAR]

Helps: Ernst, Graham, Loeffler, Marshall, Tillis
Helps somewhat: Collins if she votes no, Cornyn, McSally, Perdue
Hurts somewhat: James, Gardner, Lewis
Hurts: Collins if she votes yes, Graham if he votes no

[Landslide Lyndon]

You know what would really help Republicans? Stemming the bleeding at the suburbs, especially among educated women. Now explain to me how ramming through an anti-choice SCOTUS nominee will help them with that.

And please, don't start this enthusiasm BS. Weren't Republicans supposedly much more enthusiastic voting for Trump than Democrats voting for "Sleepy" Joe? Now they suddenly need this jolt to get to the polls?

[Niemeyerite]

It will hurt Republicans. People keep forgetting how Donald Trump has this incredible ability to mismanage everything, even those topics were he initially had an upper hand.

IMO, a big majority of Americans believe that a SC vacancy shouldn't be filled before the election and Republicans will try hard to do it against the will of the people. Gardner, Collins, McSally and Tillis are DOA if that happens. Cornyn, Perdue, Loeffler/Collins and even Ernst may lose because of that. I only see this helping Republicans in deep red states (so maybe MT, KS, SC and AK are out of the game now).

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

It is not gonna help Collins whatsoever because people know her intentions now.

[Stuart98]

Yeah people fundamentally misunderstand what happened in 2018; Dems didn't lose senate seats because "liberal supreme court justices bad conservative ones good", they lost because of me-too backlash from certain segments of the population and because most of the senators who lost were already unfavored by the red shifting of the states they represented. I'd wait until we have polling before declaring that this hurts any particular candidates.

[walleye26]

I think it hurts them because in 2016, all the Republicans stole Garland’s seat and kept spouting this BS about “wait for the next President.” The GOP pushing it through now will be hypocritical and will be seen as a blatant power grab, especially among educated suburban voters.

[Figueira]

It probably help Republicans in red states (i.e. Ernst) while hurt Republicans in blue states (i.e. Collins)

Iowa was a swing state as recently as 2012; I don't think it's totally gone now. It likely helps Daines and Marshall, though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this increases enthusiasm on both sides so no difference.

Wouldn't that hurt Democrats since most competative races are in Republican leaning states?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP is mad that MSN whom inflates Biden polls dont cover Ukraine Hunter like they did with the impeachment trial. Collins and Murkowski are gonna vote no on any Trump nominees and Rs are gonna confirm a Conservative Justice before Trump term ends in Jan 51/49, they have the votes