Does RBG's death help or hurt Senate Republicans?

[SnowLabrador]

I think it'll help them. Nothing motivates right-wing voters more than a Supreme Court confirmation battle.

[Lognog]

gives them a massive rallying cry

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think it'll help them. Nothing motivates right-wing voters more than a Supreme Court confirmation battle.

These nutjobs were going to turn out for TRUMP anyway lol

[Suburbia]

Probably help.

But I think Democrats already have AZ and CO, they need NC/IA/MT/ME/MS

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If they vote to confirm another justice before the election, endangered GOP Senators can vote 'no' safe in the knowledge that the nomination will happen anyway. This may well help them (especially Collins).

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Montana, Iowa and Kansas are now off the table..

[Statilius the Epicurean]

My gut reaction is that it tips the Senate to their favour. If Democrats are sucked into a contentious nomination fight ala Kavanaugh in 2018 it drags on their Senate candidates in SC, MT, IA etc..

[NewYorkExpress]

Pretty much every battleground Senate race, except Colorado and maybe Maine, is now going to go Republican.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump on the ballot, and a supreme court vacancy.

Conservative turnout is going to be juiced beyond belief.

[Pollster]

This thread is going to age like fine wine.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty much every battleground Senate race, except Colorado and maybe Maine, is now going to go Republican.

This should energize Democrats far more than Republicans.  Dems have far more at stake here.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Former US Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) was hurt immensely by the Kavanaugh saga, apparently.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty much every battleground Senate race, except Colorado and maybe Maine, is now going to go Republican.

This logic doesn't hold water at all. Democrats swept all swing states in 2018 except for Florida.

[NewYorkExpress]

Pretty much every battleground Senate race, except Colorado and maybe Maine, is now going to go Republican.

This logic doesn't hold water at all. Democrats swept all swing states in 2018 except for Florida.

Most of 2020's battleground's aren't in swing states. Of this year's battleground races, Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa are swing states. That's it (and I'm being generous with both Arizona and North Carolina).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At the very least, it'll really hurt Collins.

[We Live in Black and White]

Bold of you to assume there will be elections.

[Pericles]

On the 2020 implications, I don't think it changes much. It just energises both bases even more, though they are both already super energised. It might marginally hurt Democrats in Senate races like Montana, but Tester did win in 2018 right after voting against Kavanaugh so even this is doubtful. It probably makes no difference at all. However that still gives Republicans a very big incentive to fill the seat, a big gain on policy for no political downside.

[DrScholl]

There is no evidence that conservative turnout is depressed. There isn't much room for it to improve and the GOP's problems aren't with conservative turnout anyway. They have catered to conservatives enough to get them to the polls, but pushed moderates toward Democrats. Another right-wing ideologue on the court is not going to get those voters back for Republicans and there are also plenty of voters who won't even have the Supreme Court at the top of their lists.

[morgieb]

If no nomination before November - neutral effect, maybe slightly helps as it hurts any Dem in a Republican state.

If a nomination before November - hurt because it'll fire up Dem turnout to extreme levels.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Susan Collins & Cory Gardner are finito. This will probably help Perdue & Daines. I don't know how this will impact McSally - is AZ still that conservative?

EDIT: McSally is toast.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Help. It will cause partisanship to win out even more, and give some senate Rs a chance to redeem themselves. Only time will tell though

[KaiserDave]

Why would this help them??? Were conservatives not already supercharged? Are polls not showing +90% certainty on both sides?

Atlas is full of morons

[Suburbia]

Susan Collins & Cory Gardner are finito. This will probably help Tillis & Daines. I don't know how this will impact McSally - is AZ still that conservative?

McSally is finished

Kelly and Sinema are lifers if they want it

[indietraveler]

More "Christians" will be fired up now.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

More "Christians" will be fired up now.

They were already voting for the philanderer anyway