NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +6%
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  NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +6%		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +6%  (Read 1149 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: September 18, 2020, 06:09:42 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2020, 06:27:18 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
https://omaha.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/jill-biden-doug-emhoff-to-visit-omaha-as-new-poll-shows-tight-race-here/article_f55cfdb6-7860-5667-8b79-2a3956e6af7d.html

July 27-29
400 likely voters
Changes with June 30 - July 5 poll

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (n/c)

September 14-16
400 likely voters
Changes with above poll

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)
 
Edit: added late July figures
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Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy
darthpi
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2020, 06:12:56 PM »
This result would not surprise me at all.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2020, 06:20:38 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on September 18, 2020, 06:12:56 PM
This result would not surprise me at all.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2020, 06:25:33 PM »
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2020, 06:32:30 PM »
Its gonna be a 291-247, this was always the map that was assumed if NEB 2 voted D, AZ, WI, PA and MI all flipping.  It also fits in with Rassy approvals that show Trump at 47 percent approvals.  It was never gonna be a 413 map and pbower still has an approval map that shows such a landslide which has never happened recently
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UncleSam
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2020, 06:58:43 PM »
+6 in an internal isn't great but considering Biden doesn't have to win this district it's fine. Probably roughly toss up / tilt R right now.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 07:09:02 PM »
Yay a NE 2 poll! This is an 8 point swing from 2016, lining up with today’s national polls, but considering it trended 7 points left in 2016 this result isn’t amazing (although its trends have been pretty wonky this century). Definitely lean D.
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MidwestPollster
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2020, 09:47:47 PM »
Riddle me this - if Biden wins NE-02, does he win the election?
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Kuumo
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2020, 09:56:09 PM »
Quote from: MidwestPollster on September 18, 2020, 09:47:47 PM
Riddle me this - if Biden wins NE-02, does he win the election?

Not necessarily. NE-02 is a largely suburban district that I could see narrowly backing Biden while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin vote for Trump.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 10:47:47 PM »
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2020, 11:49:37 PM »
See? Not a Tossup. It's literally a district drawn right on top of a city. I mean, really. How else could it vote?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 10:18:04 AM »
Crosstabs are in for the presidential and Congressional races.

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/NE-02-poll-091720-.pdf

July 27-29
400 likely voters
N.B. Trends shouldn't have been posted for the first of these two polls as the last pollster was GQR, not GSG.

Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Other candidate 2%
Undecided/refused 3%

September 14-16
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%
Changes with July 27-29 poll

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)
Other candidate 1% (-1)
Undecided/refused 3% (n/c)
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2020, 11:22:47 AM »
Quote from: UncleSam on September 18, 2020, 06:58:43 PM
+6 in an internal isn't great but considering Biden doesn't have to win this district it's fine. Probably roughly toss up / tilt R right now.

Definately not tilt r, probably lean D in rating
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