NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): TIED
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Author Topic: NE-02 - Global Strategy Group (D): TIED  (Read 407 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 18, 2020, 06:08:29 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2020, 06:27:25 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://omaha.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/jill-biden-doug-emhoff-to-visit-omaha-as-new-poll-shows-tight-race-here/article_f55cfdb6-7860-5667-8b79-2a3956e6af7d.html

July 27-29
400 likely voters
Changes with June 30 - July 5 poll

Bacon (R) 47% (-2)
Eastman (D) 42% (-8)

September 14-16
400 likely voters
Changes with above poll

Eastman (D) 45%  (+3)
Bacon (R) 45% (-2)

Edit: changed trends to incorporate late July figures.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2020, 06:17:44 PM »

A 291 to 247 map is likely, AZ, CO, CA, OR, NV and NM voting with MN, MI, WI, IL and PA
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2020, 06:27:21 PM »

They also released a late July poll which I've added to show trends.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2020, 10:19:42 AM »

Crosstabs are in for the presidential and Congressional races.

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/NE-02-poll-091720-.pdf

July 27-29
400 likely voters
N.B. Trends shouldn't have been posted for the first of these two polls as the last pollster was GQR, not GSG.

Bacon 47%
Eastman 42%
Schaeffer (L) 4%
Undecided/refused 7%

September 14-16
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%
Changes with July 27-29 poll

Bacon 45% (-2)
Eastman 45% (+3)
Schaeffer (L) 3% (-1)
Undecided/refused 7% (n/c)
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IAMCANADIAN
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 06:25:51 PM »

The generic congressional ballot is tighter than the 2018 results yet many people are trying to claim that a large number of Republican held seats are up for grabs. I do not believe it.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2020, 06:30:16 PM »

The generic congressional ballot is tighter than the 2018 results yet many people are trying to claim that a large number of Republican held seats are up for grabs. I do not believe it.

I don't think anyone is saying that specifically - most people are pointing out though that there a good amount of R seats that are in districts that are quickly trending left, like this one, that are up for grabs. Trump/Rs have a particularly weakness in 2020 with the suburbs like this one, and there are a good amount of districts like this are slipping away from them.

Not to mention, the 538 average is D+6.1, which is lower than the final avg of D+8.7 in 2018, but there haven't been as many polls (esp high quality) lately, so given the MoE, it's not that far-fetched.
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