Who would win Virginia if Virginia was like it was in 2004

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does Biden win 2004 Virginia as well (like enough of those voters who voted Bush would vote Biden for Biden to win it)

[Bootes Void]

If Biden ran against Trump in 2004, he would probably win it by about 3 to 4 points.

State politics and demographics can change but Biden does have alot of support from ex Republicans and what not

[cvparty]

if you’re talking about pure demographics then biden would still win by a somewhat smaller margin. most of the state’s shift to the left is due to existing voters that were here even from 2004

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think it would be pretty close to North Carolina, with a small Biden tilt.

[Adam Griffin]

VA hasn't really grown much since 2004 compared to other states with similar trends. Both GA & NC have each added close to twice the number of people over the same period. A lot of what has happened in VA has been defection-based, which is why you have a ton of well-off Bush-voting economic conservatives calling themselves Democrats in the state today.

An incumbent Trump in '04? I don't know. In an open race? Biden would win.

[Non Swing Voter]

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

[Adam Griffin]

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

Fact: Virginia has grown by 1.08 million over the past fifteen years; GA has grown by 1.71 million and NC has grown by 1.98 million. Put another way, VA went from being 1 million behind NC to 2 million; from 1.5 million behind GA to 2 million. One more summary: VA has grown an average of 0.96% per year, GA by 1.28% & NC by 1.66%. Virginia's growth as a whole isn't really that impressive (unless you conflate only one particular region of it with the state) and isn't keeping up with similarly-sized Southern states.

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

None of this should be surprising, especially when examining the 04/08 swing and comparing to states with objectively more favorable demographics on their side (i.e. GA). No way a state like VA could generate those kinds of gains with its relatively paltry growth on that alone.

[Agonized-Statism]

Biden because of the neocon ties. While Virginia has been trending against the GOP anyway, Trump is a particularly bad fit.

[Chips]

Biden but narrowly. Trump probably would've won 2004 Virginia in 2016 especially if Clinton didn't pick Kaine.

[jamestroll]

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

Fact: Virginia has grown by 1.08 million over the past fifteen years; GA has grown by 1.71 million and NC has grown by 1.98 million. Put another way, VA went from being 1 million behind NC to 2 million; from 1.5 million behind GA to 2 million. One more summary: VA has grown an average of 0.96% per year, GA by 1.28% & NC by 1.66%. Virginia's growth as a whole isn't really that impressive (unless you conflate only one particular region of it with the state) and isn't keeping up with similarly-sized Southern states.

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

None of this should be surprising, especially when examining the 04/08 swing and comparing to states with objectively more favorable demographics on their side (i.e. GA). No way a state like VA could generate those kinds of gains with its relatively paltry growth on that alone.

Oh no I hope you aren't one of the people who think that the GOP will landslide in virginia once trump leaves office

[Non Swing Voter]

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

Fact: Virginia has grown by 1.08 million over the past fifteen years; GA has grown by 1.71 million and NC has grown by 1.98 million. Put another way, VA went from being 1 million behind NC to 2 million; from 1.5 million behind GA to 2 million. One more summary: VA has grown an average of 0.96% per year, GA by 1.28% & NC by 1.66%. Virginia's growth as a whole isn't really that impressive (unless you conflate only one particular region of it with the state) and isn't keeping up with similarly-sized Southern states.

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

None of this should be surprising, especially when examining the 04/08 swing and comparing to states with objectively more favorable demographics on their side (i.e. GA). No way a state like VA could generate those kinds of gains with its relatively paltry growth on that alone.

Oh no I hope you aren't one of the people who think that the GOP will landslide in virginia once trump leaves office

Don't bother with him, it's absolutely pointless.

[Adam Griffin]

Oh no I hope you aren't one of the people who think that the GOP will landslide in virginia once trump leaves office

No: I'm saying with Virginia as it otherwise was in 2004 + all the demographic growth over the past 12 years added to it, Bush would've still won the state by 75,000 votes instead of 260,000 votes.

Don't listen to the rich libertarian who thinks every new Democratic voter in the state is a minority who moved there from somewhere else.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

Fact: Virginia has grown by 1.08 million over the past fifteen years; GA has grown by 1.71 million and NC has grown by 1.98 million. Put another way, VA went from being 1 million behind NC to 2 million; from 1.5 million behind GA to 2 million. One more summary: VA has grown an average of 0.96% per year, GA by 1.28% & NC by 1.66%. Virginia's growth as a whole isn't really that impressive (unless you conflate only one particular region of it with the state) and isn't keeping up with similarly-sized Southern states.

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

None of this should be surprising, especially when examining the 04/08 swing and comparing to states with objectively more favorable demographics on their side (i.e. GA). No way a state like VA could generate those kinds of gains with its relatively paltry growth on that alone.

That's fair, but you aren't accounting for generational turnover, which is probably half that 60% number. The overwhelming majority of individuals who voted for Bush 2004 in Virginia and still live in the state will be voting for Trump.

[Pericles]

Virginia voted around 6 points to the right of the nation in 2004, so leaving aside everyone else Biden should win a state with that kind of lean, given his current lead. North Carolina is basically a R+6 right now state and Biden has a narrow lead there.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginia voted around 6 points to the right of the nation in 2004, so leaving aside everyone else Biden should win a state with that kind of lean, given his current lead. North Carolina is basically a R+6 right now state and Biden has a narrow lead there.

Do you really believe Biden is narrowly leading in North Carolina?  I'm a bit suspect.

[Pericles]

Virginia voted around 6 points to the right of the nation in 2004, so leaving aside everyone else Biden should win a state with that kind of lean, given his current lead. North Carolina is basically a R+6 right now state and Biden has a narrow lead there.

Do you really believe Biden is narrowly leading in North Carolina?  I'm a bit suspect.

Both 538 and RCP have him up by about 1 point there, so if the polls are right he is the favorite there.

[Adam Griffin]

That's fair, but you aren't accounting for generational turnover, which is probably half that 60% number.

It's late and I hope I'm not failing to understand what you mean, or mixing up countering variables in my head.

I'm accounting for net population growth and what share of said growth over 15 years were/are currently minors & non-citizens. I interchanged some terms above that may have complicated things, but the 186,000-vote net margin shift mentioned includes citizen minors coming of age since 2004 (both born in-state and moved to the state) and citizen adults moving into the state, then projecting their turnout and support levels based on reasonable-to-optimistic (in terms of against my case) projections. I could honestly argue the 186k figure is a tad high.

As far as dead people go: as an offset, it's not explicitly including how many D-to-R voters there have been, either. I'm welcome to hearing figures, but I seriously doubt the net number of Republicans who have died is meaningfully larger than the number of D-to-Rs in a state like VA during the specified timeframe. Even if it were, it'd need to be at least twice as large (R-to-dead = 1 vote difference; D-to-R = 2 vote difference) to offset. Likewise, there'd be even more D margin shift flux that'd have to be explained almost certainly via R-to-D defections given my 186k figure was quite generous in terms of who is voting and who is voting D.

I'm still quite confident that the majority of VA's margin shift from 2004-2016 is from former Rs, disproportionately coming from suburban areas. However and as stated, a majority of people contributing to that margin shift are people who did not vote in VA in 2004. Basically from my above calcs, 60% of the shift is from R-to-D voters but 57% of voters who contributed to such were non-voters/non-Virginians/minors in 2004.

The overwhelming majority of individuals who voted for Bush 2004 in Virginia and still live in the state will be voting for Trump.

Of course: I never made a claim to the contrary at all. My statement was that R-to-D voters are responsible for a large chunk of the Democratic margin shift (especially since each 1 of them is worth 2 first-time D voters).

[jamestroll]

Oh no I hope you aren't one of the people who think that the GOP will landslide in virginia once trump leaves office

No: I'm saying with Virginia as it otherwise was in 2004 + all the demographic growth over the past 12 years added to it, Bush would've still won the state by 75,000 votes instead of 260,000 votes.

Don't listen to the rich libertarian who thinks every new Democratic voter in the state is a minority who moved there from somewhere else.

There are a lot of misconceptions about Virginia on this forum. Here are just a few of the misconceptions below:

1) That Nova voted for Romney. That is mathematically and  blatantly false. But even certified vote totals will not convince people.

2) That Loudoun County was all Romney Clinton voters. Not really. Trump had like a 6,000 vote decrease from Romney but Clinton had a HUGE increase in raw vote totals from Obama. Loudoun was also the fastest growing county in the state. The difference was mostly Democrats moving in.

3) That Sanders would have lost Virignia... no.. with 2020 everything being the same.. highly unlikely. Though it was not exactly unreasonable to believe that without covid and everything else that Sanders would have struggled in Virginia but he would have held on by 1% or so at the end. Hampton Roads region would have been his main problem.

4) That Nova alone swung the state to the Democrats.. not really.. its a big help but if only nova shifted Democratic from 2004, and rural areas shifted as hard to the GOP and the Richmond metro did not shift from 2004.. it would be a far more competitive state.

5) That rural Virginia used to lean Democratic.. no.. for the south.. rural Virginia was historically quite GOP. But Democrats have lost their ability to compete in all of rural Virginia except in black counties.

I could easily write 10+ more misconceptions.

[Chips]

Based on the results, Biden wins 2004 Virginia narrowly by like 3-4 points. It would've been like GA and AZ but a bigger margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mark Warner was already Gov in 2004 and was asked to be Veep and he declined, it had already transitioned, but Bob McDowell scandal in 2010 further moved it to the left

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden, and it would be by 6% or so.