NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist: Biden +7/+9

[VAR]

Sep 11-16, 723 LV, MoE: 4.3%

LV
Biden 49%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 5%
Hawkins 2%

Two-way race (LV)
Biden 52%
Trump 43%

RV
Biden 49%
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 5%
Hawkins 2%

Two-way race (RV)
Biden 52% (-1)
Trump 42% (nc)

Trump approval: 43/53

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202009171415.pdf

[Sir Mohamed]

The Jorgensen and Hawkins numbers are too high. Otherwise confirms the state of the race, that has Biden up by mid to high single digits. They should start worrying in Trump HQ as the clock is ticking.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Where are all of these Jorgensen voters coming from?

[Alben Barkley]

Jorgensen is not getting 5% of the vote. The fact that Biden is close to 50 even with that though is very encouraging. Not a Gary Johnson 2016 situation at all.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Jorgensen is not getting 5% of the vote. The fact that Biden is close to 50 even with that though is very encouraging. Not a Gary Johnson 2016 situation at all.

[Lief 🗽]

Third high quality poll today confirming that Biden leads by about 10 points nationally. Tremendous!

[Rand]

[GeneralMacArthur]

I always fail to understand why, every four years, plenty of voters tell pollsters that they are going to vote for an absolute joke of a party with joke candidates whose only principle is a dogmatic obsession with pursuing a law-free anarchaic society.  And then when they go in the voting booth they change their mind.  What's the point?

[Alben Barkley]

+9 with likely voters, and margin of error of one poll doesn’t matter so much if you’re getting multiple polls showing the same thing. Also, it goes both ways: I could say the AP-NORC showing Biden up 4 is actually Biden +8 by the same logic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Registered Voters
Changes with August 3-11 poll
964 registered voters
MoE for registered voters: 3.8%

Two way race:
Other 3% (+1)
Undecded 3% (-1)

Likely Voters
Four way race:

Other 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 2%

Two way race:

Other 3%
Undecided 2%

[Illini Moderate]

Third high quality poll today confirming that Biden leads by about 10 points nationally. Tremendous!

7%  in a poll with a 4.3% MOE = "about 10 points nationally"

Clearly he’s going by the two way race number since there is no chance Jorgensen gets 5%

[Arson Plus]

I always fail to understand why, every four years, plenty of voters tell pollsters that they are going to vote for an absolute joke of a party with joke candidates whose only principle is a dogmatic obsession with pursuing a law-free anarchaic society.  And then when they go in the voting booth they change their mind.  What's the point?

I guess why is because third party voters are pretty much decided are more likely to be represented in polls and are more interested in politics.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I always fail to understand why, every four years, plenty of voters tell pollsters that they are going to vote for an absolute joke of a party with joke candidates whose only principle is a dogmatic obsession with pursuing a law-free anarchaic society.  And then when they go in the voting booth they change their mind.  What's the point?

I guess why is because third party voters are pretty much decided are more likely to be represented in polls and are more interested in politics.

That's not what I've found.  Most third-party people are those who started off with the "both sides are bad" default understanding of politics that everyone starts with, and then never evolved beyond that, they just said "well if both sides are bad let's get a third party going, I'm going to give a third party all my votes."

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh god baby you’re gonna make me MaLARkeY

[wbrocks67]

I wanna know how the hell 7% of 3rd party voters pass a Likely Voter screen. 7% LV for Jorgensen/Hawkins is absurd.

Also, this has Biden winning Whites overall but only nonwhites by 26%. I'm not sure which of those is more ridiculous either. If Biden is winning whites overall, he's winning in an absolute landslide.

[KaiserDave]

Oh god baby you’re gonna make me MaLARkeY

No

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh god baby you’re gonna make me MaLARkeY

No

Yes

[NYDem]

Biden is winning the white vote 48/47 in this poll! Due to his strength with seniors I guess. If that were to actually happen, it would be the first time a Democrat has won white voters since 1964. I would expect him to be up 15 points nationally if that were happening, but it seems that Biden is also losing minority support. If he could get Whites/Seniors at current levels and Blacks/Hispanics at 2016/2018 levels that would be a coalition that's impossible to defeat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is that a Joe-face?

[Rand]

Is that a Joe-face?

It’s a Joegasm.