Civiqs: Biden +11 in MI, -3 in OH, +7 in PA, +7 in WI

[VAR]

MI (517 RV)
Biden 53% (+4)
Trump 42% (-4)

OH (556 RV)
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 45% (-2)

PA (704 RV)
Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 45% (+1)

WI (549 RV)
Biden 51% (nc)
Trump 44% (-1)

https://rustbeltrising.com/resources/

[AGA]

Glad to see Biden above 50%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really wish we had more polling in Ohio.  The other three seem like they are verging on Safe Biden at this point.

[Sir Mohamed]

Encouraging, both the margins and #Bidenover50.

OH is definitely Lean R. Meanwhile, Trump is probably DOA in MI unless he can change the entire race in the next 6 weeks. But he's starting to run out of time.

[Tender Branson]

Biden will slightly win OH on election day.

[American2020]

The Upper Midwest Blue Wall is under reconstruction. Don't forget to add titanium.

[libertpaulian]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

[Alben Barkley]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

[Rand]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For Rust Belt Rising
September 11-15
Changes with August 13-17 polls

[libertpaulian]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

There are two state supreme court races and three congressional races which are winnable, not to mention some state legislative seats.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

I'm not against spending in OH, but I'd prioritize TX though. 38 EVs is a bigger prize, puts Trump in a bigger defense effort and actually has several winnable downballot races while OH has very few of such.

[Bojack Horseman]

There we go!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

There are two state supreme court races and three congressional races which are winnable, not to mention some state legislative seats.

We have already discussed this. Texas, Iowa, Georgia, they all have much more important races than Ohio. Besides the senatorial contests, flipping the Texas House alone would have momentous consequences for congressional redistricting in the second biggest state in the country.

[Person Man]

We need to expand the map to stop the GOPs rat fudging.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

There are two state supreme court races and three congressional races which are winnable, not to mention some state legislative seats.

We have already discussed this. Texas, Iowa, Georgia, they all have much more important races than Ohio. Besides the senatorial contests, flipping the Texas House alone would have momentous consequences for congressional redistricting in the second biggest state in the country.

Texas would only be deferring the inevitable for 2 years unless Dems also flip some seats on the state supreme court and then flip some more in 2022/24.  There is a backup commission that redraws the state legislature for the decade if there is a deadlock.  If Dems flip the lower house, the commission is still 4R/1D because of the statewide officers.  The lower house would likely flip right back on the Republican maps in 2022 and unless Dems managed to flip the governorship or flip/get very close to flipping the state supreme court (4/9 seats are up this year, all incumbents are R's), the legislature would just pass a congressional gerrymander for the rest of the decade in 2023.  

Ohio has a commission process that was intentionally set up to be easy to game.  Flipping the state supreme court from 5R/2D to 4D/3R could effectively take the process from R control to D control.  

Georgia would have a momentous redistricting impact if Dems were able to flip or tie a state legislative chamber (it doesn't have a backup process like Texas), but the odds are incredibly long and it's unclear if the investment is sensible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

plus 7 in pa yas daddy

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fantastic.

[ultraviolet]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

There are two state supreme court races and three congressional races which are winnable, not to mention some state legislative seats.

We have already discussed this. Texas, Iowa, Georgia, they all have much more important races than Ohio. Besides the senatorial contests, flipping the Texas House alone would have momentous consequences for congressional redistricting in the second biggest state in the country.

Texas would only be deferring the inevitable for 2 years unless Dems also flip some seats on the state supreme court and then flip some more in 2022/24.  There is a backup commission that redraws the state legislature for the decade if there is a deadlock.  If Dems flip the lower house, the commission is still 4R/1D because of the statewide officers.  The lower house would likely flip right back on the Republican maps in 2022 and unless Dems managed to flip the governorship or flip/get very close to flipping the state supreme court (4/9 seats are up this year, all incumbents are R's), the legislature would just pass a congressional gerrymander for the rest of the decade in 2023.  

Ohio has a commission process that was intentionally set up to be easy to game.  Flipping the state supreme court from 5R/2D to 4D/3R could effectively take the process from R control to D control.  

Georgia would have a momentous redistricting impact if Dems were able to flip or tie a state legislative chamber (it doesn't have a backup process like Texas), but the odds are incredibly long and it's unclear if the investment is sensible.

Very interesting. I’m gonna need a full rundown of downballot races’ impact on redistributing following the election. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden, Dems...PLEASE start spending in Ohio!

We don’t need it though. If we win Ohio, we’ve already won the election, and there aren’t a ton of downballot races that could be lifted there. I used to think spending in OH was a good idea, and they have done some, but at this stage I think places like Texas and Georgia are wiser investments.

There are two state supreme court races and three congressional races which are winnable, not to mention some state legislative seats.

We have already discussed this. Texas, Iowa, Georgia, they all have much more important races than Ohio. Besides the senatorial contests, flipping the Texas House alone would have momentous consequences for congressional redistricting in the second biggest state in the country.

Texas would only be deferring the inevitable for 2 years unless Dems also flip some seats on the state supreme court and then flip some more in 2022/24.  There is a backup commission that redraws the state legislature for the decade if there is a deadlock.  If Dems flip the lower house, the commission is still 4R/1D because of the statewide officers.  The lower house would likely flip right back on the Republican maps in 2022 and unless Dems managed to flip the governorship or flip/get very close to flipping the state supreme court (4/9 seats are up this year, all incumbents are R's), the legislature would just pass a congressional gerrymander for the rest of the decade in 2023.  

Ohio has a commission process that was intentionally set up to be easy to game.  Flipping the state supreme court from 5R/2D to 4D/3R could effectively take the process from R control to D control.  

Georgia would have a momentous redistricting impact if Dems were able to flip or tie a state legislative chamber (it doesn't have a backup process like Texas), but the odds are incredibly long and it's unclear if the investment is sensible.

The other incentive to flip TX is to stop the implementation of a "state electoral college" for local races, including the governor's mansion. If Democrats can hold off that reform until 2022, they have a real shot at installing a governor who can veto such reforms coming from the newly gerrymandered state house.

[SenatorCouzens]

Great polls for Biden, I don't think there's any other way to look it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Great polls for Biden, I don't think there's any other way to look it.

2016 polling error (as described by NYT) would change PA and WI to +1 Biden

Debate domination by Trump turns the race into +2 Trump in PA/WI

COVID cases going down and economy booming turns the race into +3 Trump in PA/WI

Boaters for Trump turns the race into +5 Trump in WI/PA

Trump piss tape is revealed which turns the race into +7 Trump in WI/PA

[SenatorCouzens]

Great polls for Biden, I don't think there's any other way to look it.

2016 polling error (as described by NYT) would change PA and WI to +1 Biden

Debate domination by Trump turns the race into +2 Trump in PA/WI

COVID cases going down and economy booming turns the race into +3 Trump in PA/WI

Boaters for Trump turns the race into +5 Trump in WI/PA

Trump piss tape is revealed which turns the race into +7 Trump in WI/PA

Ha well you had me on the first three

[republican1993]

this race is so god damn boring i'm ready for the midterms (hopefulyl debates shake things up) was everyone acting this way in 2016 too? LOL

[Buzz]

President Harris becoming closer to reality by the day.