MI (EPIC-MRA): Biden +8

[VAR]

Sep 10-15, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Biden 48% (-3)
Trump 40%

Senate: Peters 45-41 (was Peters 50-40)

Trump approval: 43/57 (-14)
Whitmer approval: 56/44 (+12)
Peters approval: 45/44 (+1)
Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Whitmer fav: 56/41 (+15)
Biden fav: 52/46 (+6)
Peters fav: 48/33 (+15)
James fav: 43/38 (+5)
Pence fav: 44/49 (-5)
Harris fav: 49/42 (+7)
BLM approval: 48/45 (+3)

https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/09/September-Statewide-EPIC-MRA-poll-091820.pdf

[wbrocks67]

So if Trump and James pretty much stayed the same but only Biden/Peters were the ones to lose some %, then it seems like just a blip pretty much

[Lief 🗽]

We probably need more Michigan polls. Not sure why everyone is doing WI, PA, MN, ME and skipping this state.

[kph14]

Sep 10-15, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Biden 48% (-3)
Trump 40%

Senate: Peters 45-41 (was Peters 50-40)

Trump approval: 43/57 (-14)
Whitmer approval: 56/44 (+12)
Peters approval: 45/44 (+1)
Trump fav: 42/55 (-13)
Whitmer fav: 56/41 (+15)
Biden fav: 52/46 (+6)
Peters fav: 48/33 (+15)
James fav: 43/38 (+5)
Pence fav: 44/49 (-5)
Harris fav: 49/42 (+7)
BLM approval: 48/45 (+3)

https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/09/September-Statewide-EPIC-MRA-poll-091820.pdf

Trump's approval looks brutal. Michigan is likely D.

[Horus]

I don't see how Trump wins Michigan with a favorability gap like that. Lean D.

[wbrocks67]

Harris fav even higher than Bidens! They need to get her more to Michigan.

[Tender Branson]

Peters for some reason strikes me as an incredibly weak candidate ... maybe James wins ?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with July 25-30 poll

Third party 5% (not listed in previous poll)
Undecided/refused 7% (+1)

Jorgensen at 2% in previous poll

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why are there 2 sets of approvals?

[SingingAnalyst]

I'd feel better with more than 600 respondents and a smaller MoE, and with Biden over 50%, but I'll take it.

Interesting that Peters is running behind Biden, and James marginally ahead of Trump.

[wbrocks67]

I'd feel better with more than 600 respondents and a smaller MoE, and with Biden over 50%, but I'll take it.

Interesting that Peters is running behind Biden, and James marginally ahead of Trump.

Seems like a result of EPIC deciding to just add "third party" as an option versus the actual candidates in their last poll

[Red Wall]

Peters losing as an incumbent in a Biden win would be embarrassing. His invisible senator strategy is leaving him open to an underperformance like Stabenow in 2018. And her name recognition was way higher so she managed to get away with it (plus a wave year) despite underperforming other statewide dems

[wbrocks67]

Peters losing as an incumbent in a Biden win would be embarrassing. His invisible senator strategy is leaving him open to an underperformance like Stabenow in 2018. And her name recognition was way higher so she managed to get away with it (plus a wave year) despite underperforming other statewide dems

Didn't he just do like a statewide motorcycle tour or something

[Illiniwek]

Peters for some reason strikes me as an incredibly weak candidate ... maybe James wins ?

Peters is a weak candidate. He is vulnerable, but he isn't going to lose in a Biden-trump election.

[The Mikado]

Gary Peters needs to wake up and take in what EPIC MRA Bernie Porn is trying to tell him.

[SenatorCouzens]

The Senate race continues to be interesting. I think the Democrats should feel very lucky this race didn't occur in 2016. But in 2020 it's not really possible for me to see Trump losing Michigan (and for that matter WI, PA, and AZ, and Collins and Tillis going down) but James winning here.

A little report from the ground here in Michigan... there are frequent radio ads (and people are driving... a lot of traffic everywhere in metro Detroit) from both Trump and Peters explicitly appealing to black voters, which I interpret as an acknowledgment on both sides that the turnout and ultimate choice of black voters is somewhat less certain this election.

In metro Detroit there are plenty of Trump signs, and a small proportion also have James signs (at about the same rate as Biden signs having Peters signs). But the wealthy traditionally Republican-ish community of Grosse Pointe is one area I saw a few James signs without Trump signs. I know the sign count data point is essentially meaningless, but may be reflective of an actual phenomenon of highly informed moderate suburbanite GOPish types voting for Biden and also James.

I still think the environment will be hard to overcome, but James has his own money and some super PAC money and is definitely on the air. And don't forget, at this point in the 2016 election... the Access Hollywood tape was still 3 weeks away, and multiple polls in Michigan in October showed Clinton with a double digit lead.

[ultraviolet]

John James is NOT winning. People have made the argument that he did well in 2018, but the truth is he still lost by quite a bit. And running again after you already lost typically doesn’t get you more popular.

[SenatorCouzens]

John James is NOT winning. People have made the argument that he did well in 2018, but the truth is he still lost by quite a bit. And running again after you already lost typically doesn’t get you more popular.

Well at this point in 2018 essentially all the polls showed Stabenow with +15 or more margin, and plenty showed it +20. Stabenow, a basically entrenched incumbent running in a year that can only be described as excellent for Democrats in a state that hasn't been keen on sending Republicans to the Senate for many generations, won by 6.5. Certainly not an abysmal margin for her, but James did much better than he could've and outperformed the national environment, and the polls, by a couple points.