NYTimes/Siena - Kelly+8 in AZ, Gideon+5 in ME, Golden+19 in ME-02, Cunningham+5 in NC

[MT Treasurer]

Regional breakdown in ME:

First Congressional district:

Cumberland: Gideon +37 (64-27) -- Biden +45
Rest: Collins +3 (48-45) -- Biden +16

Second Congressional district:

Acadia/Bangor: Gideon +10 (53-43) -- Biden +19
North: Collins +20 (58-38) -- Trump +11
Southwest: Collins +5 (49-44) -- Biden +7

Obviously not a good poll for Collins, but this is yet another major underperformance by Gideon (Biden’s ahead by 17 in this poll, Gideon only by 5; plus she already underperformed him by 9 points in the Quinnipiac poll, which was Biden +21 and Gideon +12). It likely won’t matter if the top of the ticket really ends up being the Biden blowout these polls are suggesting, but it will matter if polls are understating Republican strength in ME and the race in the state tightens a little as fundamentals and trends win out. I have a hard time buying that Biden is going to replicate Obama's margin here or do even better than that (more likely it’ll be a margin in the high single digits or so).