NYTimes/Siena: Biden+9 in Arizona, +1 in North Carolina, +17 in Maine, +2 in ME-02

[n1240]

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-me-nc-0920-crosstabs/72d074246b272695/full.pdf

Arizona

Biden 49
Trump 40
Jorgensen 4

9/10-15 653 LV

North Carolina

Biden 45
Trump 44
Jorgensen 2
Hawkins 1

9/11-16, 653 LV

Maine

Biden 55
Trump 38

9/11-16, 663 LV

ME-02

Biden 47
Trump 45

9/11-16, 440 LV

[DaleCooper]

Great news, and I'm happy to see Biden at least leading in North Carolina. We're getting to the point where low-single digit Biden leads in AZ are outliers.

[NOVA Green]

Love You n1240...

You da' First to post, and I'm still up on the West Coast...

Initially positive, but maybe only push on Undecides in Maine?

Arizona numbers really stand out, as well as some potential confirmation on other polls from ME-02 or statewide.

So not a "push poll".... so throw into the mix I guess?

[n1240]

Tentative estimate of ME-02 based on regional crosstabs:

Biden 47
Trump 45

Also ME-01 for good measure (although they only oversampled in ME-02)

Biden 62
Trump 32

[Gustaf]

Most interesting thing here, to me, is that they agree with the Quinnipiac Maine poll. That no longer looks like such a crazy outlier. If rural white voters in the North are returning home to Democrats that's a very good sign for Biden.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

2nd poll to show Biden leading with NC whites in Maine

[Pericles]

The Maine polls are crazy, such big swings to Biden there. Maybe 2016 really was a fluke there (I suppose you could argue the overall 2016 outcome was a fluke, but not as much as this). Or the polls are underestimating Republicans there and Trump loses it a bit more respectably while the Senate race is actually close.

[Hammy]

Biden seems like he's leading consistently in Arizona. NC poll is too low to really tell us anything as the floor for both is likely 47.

[n1240]

Tentative estimate of ME-02 based on regional crosstabs:

Biden 47
Trump 45

Also ME-01 for good measure (although they only oversampled in ME-02)

Biden 62
Trump 32

Noticed this in the article - "Mr. Trump’s disadvantage in Maine was so severe that it was not clear he would even carry the state’s Republican-leaning Second Congressional District. The state splits its Electoral College votes by district, and four years ago Mr. Trump picked up a single elector from the more conservative of Maine’s two seats. But the poll showed Mr. Biden with a nominal lead of two percentage points in that district." so it seems like my estimate is ok

[VAR]

AZ
Trump approval: 43/52 (-9)
Biden fav: 54/45 (+9)
Kelly fav: 52/38 (+14)
McSally fav: 46/48 (-2)
Harris fav: 48/43 (+5)
Pence fav: 44/48 (-4)
BLM fav: 55/37 (+18)
Senate generic ballot: D 50-44 (+6)

ME
Trump approval: 39/60 (-21)
Trump fav: 39/59 (-20)
Biden fav: 57/42 (+15)
Gideon fav: 55/40 (+15)
Collins fav: 50/47 (+3)
Golden fav (CD02): 62/27 (+35)
Crafts fav (CD02): 41/27 (+14)
Kavanaugh fav: 31/48 (-16)
BLM fav: 58/35 (+23)
Senate generic ballot: D 53-41 (+12)

NC
Trump approval: 46/50 (-4)
Trump fav: 47/51 (-4)
Biden fav: 49/48 (+1)
Cunningham fav: 46/29 (+17)
Tillis fav: 42/41 (+1)
Harris fav: 43/45 (-2)
Pence fav: 45/46 (-1)
BLM fav: 52/40 (+12)
Senate generic ballot: R 48-44 (+4)

[DINGO Joe]

2nd poll to show Biden leading with NC whites in Maine

Took a couple of minutes to figure out that you weren't referring to North Carolina whites in Maine.

[wbrocks67]

Huh, so Q-pac isn't a total outlier. Their KY and SC #s looked about right, so not sure why peoople thought they were totally off on ME.

Also, Monmouth's +4 wasn't too bad, but their +1 and +2 models were clearly outliers at this point.

North Carolina looks like it's going to be the closest race of the election. Also, it's basically the one swing state that we KEEP getting these 45-43 or 46-43 or 45-44 polls. Both can't seem to get close to that 50 hump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hard to believe that Arizona will vote 8 points to the left of North Carolina.
I think they are too bullish for Biden on the former and too bearish on the latter.

[Skye]

Hard to believe that Arizona will vote 8 points to the left of North Carolina.
I think they are too bullish for Biden on the former and too bearish on the latter.

But polling in NC has been more favorable to Trump than in AZ for a while.

What I'm surprised about this poll is the Maine margin. That 17-point lead is huge and not that far off from Qpiac's poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hard to believe that Arizona will vote 8 points to the left of North Carolina.
I think they are too bullish for Biden on the former and too bearish on the latter.

But polling in NC has been more favorable to Trump than in AZ for a while.

I'm not arguing that North Carolina is more Republican than Arizona, I'm arguing that it won't be by such a big margin.

[wbrocks67]

NC is interesting though - 11% of blacks are undecided and Trump only getting 2% of them right now, so Biden seems to have a small amount of upside here.

Also, judging by the favorable #s, with Trump slightly underwater and Biden at +1, again looks like Biden is the one with the small upside here, but it'll be close.

Trump approval: 46/50 (-4)
Trump fav: 47/51 (-4)
Biden fav: 49/48 (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe let’s stop with the “omg no it’s an outlier!!1” routine with Maine polls showing Biden back at Obama’s margin of victory now?

[Skye]

Tentative estimate of ME-02 based on regional crosstabs:

Biden 47
Trump 45

Also ME-01 for good measure (although they only oversampled in ME-02)

Biden 62
Trump 32

Yes, Cohn confirmed the ME-02 numbers.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1306898180055937024

[wbrocks67]

Cohn has really done his best to kind of be hack-ish about numbers for Dems imo. First he only included the Biden +1 AZ Monmouth poll in his write-up, then he was saying how the numbers weren't great for Biden, and now 5-8pt leads in battlegrounds are just "modest"

My god do these people really trip over themselves to push the horse race.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Cohn has really done his best to kind of be hack-ish about numbers for Dems imo. First he only included the Biden +1 AZ Monmouth poll in his write-up, then he was saying how the numbers weren't great for Biden, and now 5-8pt leads in battlegrounds are just "modest"

My god do these people really trip over themselves to push the horse race.

Perhaps they're running with the "it's tightening" narrative so that Democratic voters don't become complacent and have a 2016 redux? Just a theory.

[wbrocks67]

Cohn has really done his best to kind of be hack-ish about numbers for Dems imo. First he only included the Biden +1 AZ Monmouth poll in his write-up, then he was saying how the numbers weren't great for Biden, and now 5-8pt leads in battlegrounds are just "modest"

My god do these people really trip over themselves to push the horse race.

Perhaps they're running with the "it's tightening" narrative so that Democratic voters don't become complacent and have a 2016 redux? Just a theory.

I mean yeah, which I can't be mad at. I just think it's bad numbers analysis for someone whose job is just that. Because you know if Republicans or Trump were up 5-8pt lead it would not be seen as just a "modest" lead for them.

[DaleCooper]

Cohn has really done his best to kind of be hack-ish about numbers for Dems imo. First he only included the Biden +1 AZ Monmouth poll in his write-up, then he was saying how the numbers weren't great for Biden, and now 5-8pt leads in battlegrounds are just "modest"

My god do these people really trip over themselves to push the horse race.

Perhaps they're running with the "it's tightening" narrative so that Democratic voters don't become complacent and have a 2016 redux? Just a theory.

My theory is that they know if Trump wins in an upset they'll hear for the rest of their lives, "Ha, yeah right, and Biden was supposed to win 2020!" just like after 2016, whereas if they frame it as a tossup and Biden wins, even if it's a landslide, no one will care. Professionals in a lot of industries go to extraordinary lengths to preserve the feelings of dumb rightwingers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AZ
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Jorgensen 4%
Someone else 1%
Not voting for president 0%
Don't know/refused 6%

ME
663 likely voters (with ranked choice - possibly transferring the votes of third party candidates for this topline?)
MoE: 5.1%

Jorgensen 0%
Hawkins 0%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for president 1%
Don't know/refused 6%

NC
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for president 0%
Don't know/refused 8%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with their last Likely Voter poll (October 18-19, 2019):

NC
Biden 45% (-1)
Trump 44% (-4)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME 2 being once again a D state and WI whom has reaffirmed its D roots since Carter and even Dukakis won it, is devestating to Rs chances