Predict the most likely splot in the Senate after this year's elections?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I predict a tie or narrow Dem majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

D+1 (-AL, The big 4, plus 1 "surprise"), but my gut says R+1 knowing our luck in the senate.

[WD]

Bold prediction: 53D-47R, Dems gain CO, AZ, NC, ME, MT, KS, GA-R, lose AL.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats gain Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa.

Republicans gain Alabama.

D+1

51-49

[Xing]

My best guess right now is a 50-50 split. Republicans gain AL, Democrats gain AZ, CO, ME, and NC, so D+3. Not confident about GA, ME, MT, or NC, though.

[S019]

D gain AZ, CO, ME, NC, MT, GA and/or GA-S, R gain AL


D+5-6, 52-48 to 53-47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51 Seats are inevitable,  but after seeing SC a wave is still possible and Daines is still vulnerable due to fact like Markey, they dont do speeches on floor, they vote on legislation and both are disappearing due to fact their D challenges Bullock and Joe Kennedy are so visual. After the Markey fiasco, disappearing Daines must be defeated.  I don't want to see another disappearing politican get reelected

I have already donated to Bollier, Harrison and Bollier after donating to Kennedy

[ShadowRocket]

Bold prediction: 53D-47R, Dems gain CO, AZ, NC, ME, MT, KS, GA-R, lose AL.

I personally agree with this. Though I'd probably swap out KS for IA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are going for AZ, CO, GA, ME, NC and SC, 50 to 53 senators. So, we cant predict an exact number due to runoffs in GA. But Loeffler is part of WNBA and she is likeable, she has the best chance to win out of GA and SC. It probably is a 51/49 Senate Ossoff or Harrison winning


D+4

[DaleCooper]

Tie for now. I want to see what the upcoming Iowa polls say about Greenfield.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

+
CO
AZ
ME
NC
GA
GA-S
TX
KS
AK
-
AL

[Gracile]

Democrats lose AL but win CO, AZ, ME, NC, and GA-R - so a net gain of D+4. That said, there are a ton of seats I can see going either way.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Really risky to do this considering how sparse and outdated polling is in GA, IA, KS and MT, but I'll guess (as of right now) that Democrats lose AL and (in order of largest to smallest margin) gain CO, AZ, ME, NC and IA.

[coloradocowboi]

If there is a fair election:

Dems gain CO, AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT, AK, GA, GA-S; GOP gains AL
D+5 (yep) in the Senate.
Young people and people of color are fed up. We are going to see abnormally high turnout among both groups, and the polls will probably never reflect that. Now, the GOP in states like Texas and Georgia will do literally everything in the power including, unfortunately, condoned armed intimidation to try and prevent this from happening. I really don't know how all this works out, so I'm cautious af.

If there is a slightly rigged election, i.e. the GOP succeeds in intimidation/suppression but can't stop the blue wave:
Dems gain CO, AZ, NC, ME, IA, AK; GOP gains AL
D+2

Also, this assumes that every single Senate race will end with a legitimized victor, which I'm not so sure will be the case. Iowa will definitely be very close. Maine has potential, as does Montana. If Harrison or Bollier win, it will be by the thinnest of margins and in states where there will be powerful interests who will want to deny them their seats.

[Hope For A New Era]

53D 47R.

CO AZ NC ME IA, then at least two out of MT KS AK SC GA GA-special.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It can be as high as 11 or 12 or 13, but realistically it will be a 51/49 D senate if Biden wins, if he loses, no gain or losses and CO for Ds and AL for Rs

[Roll Roons]

52-48. I'll say they get CO, AZ, NC, ME, MT and IA while losing AL.

[Ferguson97]

50-50

Dems win AZ, ME, CO, and NC and lose AL.

[YE]

50-50

Dems win AZ, ME, CO, and NC and lose AL.

I can’t go higher than this at the moment based on current polling. But I don’t think a much better night is that much of a reach if Biden actually wins by 10 or more. TX, GA-S, SC, KS, and AK are all viable in that scenario even if they’re not high profile races right now.

[Ferguson97]

50-50

Dems win AZ, ME, CO, and NC and lose AL.

I can’t go higher than this at the moment based on current polling. But I don’t think a much better night is that much of a reach if Biden actually wins by 10 or more. TX, GA-S, SC, KS, and AK are all viable in that scenario even if they’re not high profile races right now.

I think this SCOTUS stuff puts TX out of reach.

[WD]

50-50

Dems win AZ, ME, CO, and NC and lose AL.

I can’t go higher than this at the moment based on current polling. But I don’t think a much better night is that much of a reach if Biden actually wins by 10 or more. TX, GA-S, SC, KS, and AK are all viable in that scenario even if they’re not high profile races right now.

I think this SCOTUS stuff puts TX out of reach.

Eh, TX is a tossup on the Presidential level, and due to the fact that ticket splitting will be quite limited it’s not really out of reach at all. The outcome of the Senate race will depend on how Biden does. Most of the undecideds in the polls we've seen lean heavily towards Hegar, so Cornyn won’t outrun Trump by more than a point or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hegar hasn't lead in a single poll

[MATTROSE94]

Probably R+1. The Democrats probably win Colorado and Arizona, but lose Alabama, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Republicans could also end up winning all Senate races except Massachusetts and Delaware as well depending on how the Supreme Court stuff plays out.

[aaroncd107]

Probably R+1. The Democrats probably win Colorado and Arizona, but lose Alabama, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Republicans could also end up winning all Senate races except Massachusetts and Delaware as well depending on how the Supreme Court stuff plays out.

what

[MATTROSE94]

Probably R+1. The Democrats probably win Colorado and Arizona, but lose Alabama, Minnesota, and Michigan. The Republicans could also end up winning all Senate races except Massachusetts and Delaware as well depending on how the Supreme Court stuff plays out.

what

I think that the Supreme Court stuff is going to help the Republicans immensely in every state and boost Republican turnout to some of the highest levels it has ever been.