I actually have to side a bit with Beet on this one.
Although Biden still is favored, the recent changes this past week have been somewhat disturbing.
Now, some of it is statistical noise/deviation, and Beet’s worst case scenario idea is unlikely to happen, but let’s look at the poll averages.
Biden is now at +5.8. I think this number could be lower than what it really is, but we don’t know. What I can say is, this is Trump’s best polling average since May.
Additionally, Trump actually has led in a poll on RCP for the first time since February. Yes, it’s a Rassy, but even Biden was leading in Rassy polls since...well last year.
I think it’s likely this is just noise, but if it doesn’t revert back within two weeks, I would be extremely concerned.
Biden has fluctuated (as is typical with polling) but remained steady. The polls are doing what I said months ago they'd do--the Trump supporters are coming home. I wish people would stop treating this as if Biden's collapsing when he's not, but of course expecting rational logic on Atlas is asking far too much.
As I said, it would be more concerning if it didn’t revert back to the mean within a few weeks.
We would also see a shift in state polling towards Trump, which has not surfaced basically anywhere, so there's that.
