Election Night Timelines Project (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:31:27 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Election Night Timelines Project (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Poll
Question: Which Midterm Scenario do you want me to do
#1
1974 Without Watergate
 
#2
1994 if Bush won Re-Election
 
#3
2002 without 9/11
 
#4
2018 if Hillary won in 2016
 
#5
2022 if Trump retired after losing
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 5

Author Topic: Election Night Timelines Project  (Read 16928 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« on: September 17, 2020, 02:27:15 PM »

I'll do my own maps for how I think each of the match-ups you gave out would go.

2016: Kasich vs. Hillary



John Kasich: 319 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 219 electoral votes

2008: Warner vs. Guiliani



Mark Warner: 333 electoral votes
Rudy Guiliani: 205 electoral votes

1960: Nixon vs. Humphrey



Hubert Humphrey: 292 electoral votes
Richard Nixon: 245 electoral votes

BONUS: 2012 Ron Paul victory against Barack Obama



Ron Paul: 285 electoral votes
President Obama: 253 electoral votes
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 09:33:00 PM »

Kasich 299, Clinton 239 is my guess. Though it could be 338-200 as well.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2020, 12:01:28 AM »

The way you portrayed these exit polls compared to 2016 now says this will likely happen.



Give or take NM and OR.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2020, 11:37:35 AM »

Kasich probably sweeps the rest of the battlegrounds aside from maybe NM.

Either 350-188 or 355-183.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 08:27:23 PM »

So, We could have anywhere from a 321-217 to a 363-175.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2020, 01:04:23 PM »

Probably slightly too much for Kasich but good timeline nonetheless.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 08:56:26 AM »

How I'd assume a Gole vs. Dole 1988 race would go:



Bob Dole: 354 electoral votes
Al Gore: 184 electoral votes
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2020, 07:00:02 PM »

This is looking like a really, really close race right now. But I predict Dole will just barely squeak out a win. I wouldn't be surprised in the least though if Gore won.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2020, 04:30:52 AM »

This is still very close but I think Gore will take this one.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2020, 04:18:33 PM »

Hey, I'd like to announce that I have been accepted to participate in this thread as well. Look for an election night timeline from me sometime. It will be either the 2000 or 2004 election but I haven't yet decided what I want to do in terms of candidates or what the final electoral map will look like at the end.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2020, 10:00:17 PM »

Down to the wire.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2020, 09:31:44 AM »

How I think this scenario would go, Not my prediction for your map but how I would have the map:



Mark Warner: 277 electoral votes
Rudy Giuliani: 261 electoral votes
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2020, 06:19:35 AM »

I think Warner will win Ohio (and the presidency) while Guiliani will win everything else. 285-253
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2020, 08:02:00 AM »

288-250 Warner I believe.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 05:38:26 AM »

Coming Soon:

Barack Obama vs. George W. Bush (2012) (If Al Gore became president in 2000 and McCain in 2004)

Polling map:



Obama: 232
Bush: 206
Toss-up: 100

Map without toss-ups:



Obama: 298
Bush: 240

Stay tuned!
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 06:27:04 AM »

Wow, that looks interesting, Chips. I think Obama would win here, but by a close margin. Is Dubya still governor of Texas, here?

It's kinda funny, in my novel, Al Gore wins in 2000 and McCain 2004 and 2008, before a fictional Democratic North Carolina senator runs in 2012 that ends in a 269-269 tie. She ultimately wins the House by one state delegation, but as it later turns out, through bribery, causing POTUS #45 to resign, allowing the protagonist of the story, who was vice president, to become president in 2014. That's the one in the Excel I sent OSR.

No but he did run for senator in 2002 and win. So he would've been a partly two term senator by the time the election rolled around.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 03:37:02 PM »

6:30PM: So, How are we all feeling about this election.

"Well, This has been a tight race right down to the end. There are nine battlegrounds in total all of which went to Obama 4 years ago. We're putting Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, all of which also went to the President 4 years ago into Senator Bush's column."

Okay, We're now going over to our top reporter in Ohio, What's the mood like down there?

"Well, Polling has always indicated an extremely tight race. The latest poll had the President up by 2 points and Obama also has the slight lead here in the RCP poll average. It's not impossible for Senator Bush to win here but I will say that there were recent polls out of Hamilton, Montgomery and Stark counties and each tell their own unique but similar stories.

Hamilton:

Bush: 50%
Obama: 48%

Montgomery:

Obama: 49%
Bush: 48%

Stark:

Bush: 49%
Obama: 49%

It's very close in all 3 of these crucial bellwether counties. Which may tell you about what's going on in the state."

Okay, We're now going to Florida. How are things shaping up there.

"The senator held a 1 point lead in the final poll but the President still had the razor-thin edge in the RCP poll averages here. If Florida goes for the president Bush would have to win most of the other swing states. If Florida went to Bush than the President would also have to win most of the swing states."

Are there any polls out of any important counties?

"Well we did have a poll out of Pinellas County that had Senator Bush 1 point ahead but another poll out of Hillsborough County had Bush and Obama even."

Alright, 2 of the most important battlegrounds up for grabs.

We're also going to be watching the results very closely in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 03:40:02 PM »

7PM:

We can project:

For Bush:

Indiana (FLIP)
Kentucky
Georgia
South Carolina

For Obama:

Vermont

Too close to call:

Virginia



Bush: 44 EV's
Obama: 3 EV's
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 07:22:53 PM »

If Bush wins FL from the polling map and holds the other battlegrounds he’s ahead in we would end with a 269-269 map .

So it would depend on who controls congress at the end of the night

I have a few surprises on the way. Trust me. Smiley
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 07:33:06 PM »

It's 7:30PM.

Calls for Bush: West Virginia

Too close to call:

Ohio
North Carolina

We're in Virginia now. We can see Bush has a lead in Loudoun. Obama also only has narrow leads in Henrico and Suffolk. It is still very possible for Obama to win the state if all of this happens but Bush is the early favorite to win here I'd say. Obama won Virginia by 4 points after going to John McCain by 11 points in 2004 so the fact that VA is looking to be leaning Republican again truly shows that this will be a very competitive race. Bush also had a 2 point lead here in the RCP average.



Bush: 49 EV's
Obama: 3 EV's
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 07:38:28 PM »

8PM:

Calls for Obama:

CT
DE
DC
IL
ME (3/4)
MD
MA
NJ
RI

Calls for Bush:

AL
MS
MO
OK
TN

Too close to call:

FL
NH
PA
ME-02



Bush: 92
Obama: 78
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 04:54:29 AM »


I'll get to that later.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2020, 04:58:36 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 05:09:17 PM by Chips »

8:30PM: Bush wins Arkansas:

9PM:

Bush wins:

Arizona
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming

Obama wins:

New York

Too close to call:

Colorado
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
Wisconsin

9:34PM: Bush wins North Carolina



Bush: 190
Obama: 107

How's it looking?

"Well, Bush has a strong lead in Virginia and also leads in Florida, New Hampshire and Colorado. Obama leads in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maine's 2nd district and Ohio while Wisconsin is about even."
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2020, 05:05:16 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2020, 05:10:57 PM by Chips »

10PM:

Bush wins: MT, UT

"We can project Iowa and Nevada are both too close to call but Bush has leads in both."

10:21PM:

We can project Obama wins Minnesota and Michigan but we can also project Bush will win Virginia which is our first battleground call of the night."

Why did Virginia flip back?

"Well, Exit polls revealed Obama is only winning Fairfax by 13 points rather than the 22 points he won it by last time around, Bush is also leading in Loudoun, Suffolk, Radford, Kings and Queens, Prince William, Montgomery, Suffolk, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach all of which went to Obama 4 years ago. We can't say yet what the margin will be but it will probably be between 5 and 6 points."

How about the other battlegrounds?

"the Senator is leading in Florida, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada. President Obama leads in Ohio, New Mexico, Maine's CD 2 and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and New Hampshire are still even."

11PM:

Obama wins: CA, OR, WA, HI
Bush wins: ID

11:19PM: Bush wins FL and CO. Obama wins PA.



Bush: 254
Obama: 232


Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2020, 05:15:12 PM »

12:19AM

We have 2 major projections:

"We can project the President will win Ohio with 18 electoral votes and New Mexico with 5 electoral votes."

"This puts the President at 255 and Bush at 254."

Why did Ohio go to Obama?

"Well while Bush will flip Hamilton County, Obama is leading in other swing counties like Montgomery, Ottawa, Wood and Stark."



Obama: 255
Romney: 254
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 13 queries.