Election Night Timelines Project

[BigVic]

President Kasich's Cabinet:

Secretary of State: Nikki Haley(R-SC)
Secretary of Treasury: Mitt Romney(R-UT)
Secretary of Defense: James Mattis(I-WA)
Attorney General: Brian Sandoval(R-NV)
Secretary of Interior: Greg Walden(R-OR)
Secretary of Agricutlure: Terry Branstad(R-IA)
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Shultz(D-WA)
Secretary of Labor: Mark Kirk(R-IL)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Charlie Dent(R-PA)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Tomás Regalado(R-FL)
Secretary of Transportation: Elaine Chao(R-KY)
Secretary of Education: Mitch Daniels(R-IN)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jim Webb(D-VA)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Martha McSally(R-AZ)

Chief Of Staff: Ed Gillispie(R-VA)
National Security Advisor: H.R McMaster(I-PA)
UN Ambassdor: Kay Bailey Hutcinson(R-TX)
EPA Director: Arnold Schwarzenegger(R-CA)
OMB Director: Jim Renacci(R-OH)

Independents and Dems in the cabinet

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, November 8, 1988




Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, good evening and welcome to election night 1988. After more than a year of campaigning, the big day has finally arrived. The presidential election to chose a successor for President Ronald Reagan, who is about to finish his second term in office. Additionally, there are elections to the House and Senate, governors and many races at the state and local level.

Tonight, the showdown between the two major candidates has arrived. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is running on the Republican side to succeed fellow Republican Ronald Reagan. Senator Dole, who ran unsuccessfully in 1980 and was also President Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976, landed a stunning upset in the Iowa Caucus earlier this year. He continued his streak of victories and forced Vice President George Bush out of the race by April. Bush was the initial frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but has been plagued by a number scandals surrounding his involvement of the Iran Contra scandal. While President Reagan has not experienced lasting damage to his approval rating, Vice President Bush has struggled to connect with voters. After exiting the race, there were some last minute negotiations between the Dole and Bush camps at the convention on whether Bush should stay on the ticket, but these talks failed. Ultimately, Senator Dole has selected Governor James Thompson of Illinois as his vice presidential candidate. However, Mr. Thompson was not his first choice. Initially, he planned to run with Governor George Deukmejian of California. But the governor declined, saying he was not willing to step down and hand his reigns of power to his Democratic lieutenant governor Leo McCarthy. Senator Al D'Amato was also in the mix, but declined.

Moving into the fall, Senator Dole has stressed to continue President Reagan's policies, but also made it clear he was not running for a third Reagan term. He has rolled out an ambitious infrastructure plan and aid to farmers during the Mid-Western farm crisis. While he promised not to to raise taxes, he has indicated to oppose major cuts in social services. As president, Mr. Dole also plans to move more aggressively towards disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union.

On the Democratic side, Tennessee senator Al Gore surprised pundits by defeating a number of challengers. At 40 years, he's the yongtest major party presidential nominee and would become the youngest president in American history. His success in the nominating process was stunning. First, Senator Gary Hart of Colorado was forced out of the contest by a sex scandal, then Senator Biden due to plagiarism issues. Governor Michael Dukakis appeared to be in a strong position, but had a number of bad debate performances, causing his numbers to slip. By the end of March, Gore had won all Southern primaries and in the Midwest, including Iowa, leaving him as the presumptive nominee. After securing the nomination, Senator Gore looked at several vice presidential options, and ultimately picked outgoing Florida senator Lawton Chiles. Mr. Chiles has been in the senate since 1971, making him a strong balance to Gore, who has just been there for four years. By picking a fellow Southerner, it became evident how much the Gore campaign is focused on taking back at least some states they have lost since 1976, the last victory for a Democrat. In addition, Mr. Chiles' selection has moved Florida into a swing state this election cycle.

Senator Gore's campaign has mainly been concentrated about innovation of new technologies and economic development. He has stressed to undo some of Ronald Reagan's economic policies, but rejected calls to return to Big Government. On foreign policy, his agenda remains relatively vague, though he emphasized the need to strengthen allies and further normalize relations with the USSR. Gore forcefully rejected Republican attacks he intended to cut the defense budget. During the vice presidential debate, Senator Chiles had a strong moment by countering Governor Thompson's attacks on that issue.

In addition to my colleagues at NBC News, we have two major surrogates of each ticket in the studio tonight. It's my honor to welcome President Gerald Ford to the studio, who has campaigned and advised the Dole campaign. Yesterday, he joined President Reagan and Senator Dole for the final rally in Philadelphia. On the Democratic side, we have Senator Joseph R. Biden of Delaware, who himself ran for the nomination last year and his since supported the Gore campaign. Welcome to both of you!

President Ford: My pleasure.

Senator Biden: Thank you. My pleasure as well.

Tom Brokaw: Thanks, Gentlemen. Ahead of our election coverage, I want to take a look at our final polling map. Right now, it appears as Senator Dole has an advantage, but pundits really expect a long night. This could go down the wire.

Dark colors stand for a lead of more than 15%, light colors for a lead in the polls between 3% and 5%. Everything under three percent is in green.

Dole/Thompson (R): 238 EV.
Gore/Chiles (D): 156 EV.
Tossup: 144 EV.

[Roll Roons]

Results of 2020 Election

Presidential Election Results:

Governor John Kasich(R-OH)/Senator Marco Rubio(R-FL) 353 51.5%
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine(D-VA) 185 46.3%

States Decided By Under 5 Points

Maine: Hillary 47.9% Kasich 47.5%
New Mexico: Kasich 47.4% Hillary 46.9% Johnson 5.2%
Minnesota: Kasich 47.9% Hillary 47.1% Stein 3.3%
Oregon: Hillary 47.7% Kasich 46.3% Stein 5%
Michigan: Kasich 49.2% Hillary 47.6%
Virginia: Kasich 49.9% Hillary 48.1%
Coloado: Kasich 49.6% Hillary 47.3%
Wisconsin: Kasich 50.4 Hillary 47.1%
Pennslvania: Kasich 50.8% Hillary 47.2%


Senatorial Results:

Republicans 53(-1)
Democrats 47(+1)

House of Represenatives:

Republicans 254(+7)
Democrats 181(-7)


Guberntorial Results:

Shame about Kirk, but at least Dold probably held on.

[Chips]

Probably slightly too much for Kasich but good timeline nonetheless.

[BigVic]

Rubio on the ticket allowed Kasich to flip NM with Hispanic voters

[Chips]

How I'd assume a Gole vs. Dole 1988 race would go:

Bob Dole: 354 electoral votes
Al Gore: 184 electoral votes

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART I



Image Sources: Wikimedia Commons (PD): Link 1, Link 2


7.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Welcome again to all of you at home, across the nation and around the world. This is NBC News Election 1988. I'm Tom Brokaw, your moderator for this election night. It is seven p.m. here in New York City and we have the first poll closings at this hour. Right now, based on exit polls done by our network, we can project the first state: The state of Indiana will go to Bob Dole. No surprise here. This state hasn't voted for a Democrat at the presidential level since 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson won reelection in a landslide. We're not expecting a landslide for either party today. Should Senator Dole win the White House, he will not receive the same electoral mandate as President Reagan did in either of his two elections.

More poll closings are in Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and Vermont. We have not enough data to project any of them yet, although we expect South Carolina in the Dole column. All three others were hotly contested in recent months. The Dole campaign is optimistic about keeping Kentucky, while they are nervous about Florida. They assumed to have this in the bag until Al Gore chose Lawton Chiles as his vice presidential running mate. Chiles has been a popular figure in his state for almost two decades and we expect him to make a major impact. As for Vermont, the Democrats hope to make inroads in New England and flip some states in this part of the country. Our exit polls predict a close Dole victory, but we haven't seen enough evidence to make a firm prediction. Only time will tell. Stay with us for more.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 12 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 0 EV.
Too close/early to call: 53 EV.


7.30 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: It's 7.30 and we have more poll closings in the states of Georgia, that came in late due to logistical problems in some polling places, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. Before we discuss them, we are now able to give another call from the seven o'clock states: South Carolina! While Democratic-leaning at the state level, Senator Bob Dole has prevailed over his rival and goes on to win the state. Eight more votes for Senator Dole! South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond has been on the campaign trail backing Dole in most recent days, drawing large crowds. Dole has actually exceeded expectation as far as we can project. This is a good sign for him with regard to the South. If Mr. Dole can hang on to most states here, he should be in a good position to be elected president.

Now, from our new poll closings, NBC News has called the state of West Virginia for the Democrats. No surprise here, that state has voted reliably Democratic in the past. Ronald Reagan carried the state four years ago, but in 1980, Jimmy Carter held on. Now West Virginia returns to its Democratic identity and gives Senator Dole his first electoral votes for tonight. With regard to the other states, we are unable to make a prediction this early. We keep you up to date. Stay with us, as we take short break for more coverage of the 1988 election.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 20 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 6 EV.
Too close/early to call: 93 EV.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART II




8.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Welcome back to our coverage of Election Night 1988! I am delighted to announce the next states that have polls closed now: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Missouri, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland. As well as the District of Columbia, Rhode Island and Illinois. Many of them are hotly contested.

We can project a number of them right now: Oklahoma and Alabama were won by Senator Dole. Important states for him, but they go as expected. Senator Gore has also won electoral votes as we speak: The carried the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Maryland. Important states for the Gore/Chiles ticket, but they were must-wins in order to take back the White House after eight years. And as I just hear, Senator Gore has carried his homestate of Tennessee. The fact that we can make this projection so early may indicate that he is doing well among certain constituencies in the South. That's absolutely necessary if he wants to be elected the 41st President of the United States. In the other states, we are unable to make a projection.

Furthermore, I just received word that Kentucky has reported a result: The Commonwealth of Kentucky has awarded its electoral votes to Bob Dole. Major win for him, as he is projected to win this state in high single digits. Democrats hoped to win Kentucky back, but it hasn't worked out. Still early though. Take a look at our map: Senator Gore has taken the lead, but a long road to 270.

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 47 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 46 EV.
Too close/early to call: 186 EV.


8.30 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Polls are closed in Arkansas now, but there is no projection so far. This is a state that traditionally votes Democratic at the state level, but Ronald Reagan has done well here. Bob Dole contested the state, hoping to maintain these electoral votes in the Republican column. But Al Gore is not Walter Mondale. He is from a neighboring state. We have to see whether Arkansas will return to its Democratic identity or whether it sticks with the Republicans here.

We have now a smaller, but important projection: The state of Delaware has gone for Senator Gore. A small state with just three electoral votes, but hotly contested. In a close race, that could make a difference. Our guest here tonight, Senator Joseph Biden, is from the state and heavily campaigned for Al Gore. Senator, now that you have won Delaware for Al Gore, which position do you take in his cabinet, should he win?

Senator Biden: [laughs] Tom, I have to tell you, I'm glad the people of Delaware made the right decision. These are my neighbors. Hard working folks who are busting their neck. All they want is a shot. That's all they want. Now I'm glad our efforts have materalized and Al Gore is three electoral votes close to the presidency. Anything else is pure speculation. Number one, we have to get there. Number two, these are decisions a new president has to make. I hope our new president is going to be Al Gore, whom I've always called a dear friend. And I really mean it. This man and Lawton Chiles are not in for themselves. They're in this for us.

Tom Brokaw: Indeed, we're not near 270 now. We take a short break and will be right back!

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 50 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 46 EV.
Too close/early to call: 189 EV.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART III




9.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: I am delighted to welcome you all back to our coverage of election night. Before we are going to our poll closings, NBC News is now confident to make a number of calls: One is the state of North Carolina, where we now project Senator Bob Dole to be the winner. There go 13 electoral votes into the Republican column. We also project that Governor James Martin is reelected to his post. Important call for the Dole camp.

Two more state calls from New England: The state of New Hampshire has been carried by Senator Dole as well. For electoral votes. Typically New Hampshire is the most conservative state in the New England region. It usually backs Republican candidates for president. 1964 was the only exception here, when President Lyndon Johnson took the state. Another call from New England is for the Gore/Chiles ticket: Connecticut and its eight electoral votes go to the Democrats. This is a major win for Al Gore, as the state usually leans Republican. Even in 1976, Jimmy Carter failed to win Connecticut. The result appears to be lose, but with 98% of the vote in, Al Gore has roughly 50.8% of the vote, while Bob Dole received 48.6%.

And now to our nine o'clock poll closings: These poll closings consist a lot of states in the Midwest and Great Plains. As expected, the map is now filling in a lot of blue for Bob Dole. However, with the exception of Texas, few of these states are electoral votes rich. States NBC News is calling for Bob Dole: Texas with its 29 electoral votes. Huge win for the Dole/Thompson camp. His homestate of Kansas, no surprise here. We also call Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming and Arizona. States we are unable to call yet include Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin and Louisiana.

Now that Republicans have raked up some votes, we also call two states for the Democrats: Minnesota and the state of New York. The latter a heavy weight in the Electoral College. 36 electoral votes for Al Gore. It looks like he was done extremely well in New York City, except for Staten Island as well was in Upstate and Long Island.

And as I just hear, the state of Virginia has been called for Bob Dole. That's twelve more votes for Senator Dole.

Take a look at our map, the Dole/Thompson ticket is back in the lead:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 132 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 104 EV.
Too close/early to call: 206 EV.


9.21 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We interrupt the break for a major call: We can officially decalare Bob Dole the winner in the state of New Jersey. Crucial victory for him. Democrats hoped to make some inroads here, but New Jersey stays with the Republicans. And we have one more call for the Dole camp: Local networks from Maine have decalred Bob Dole the winner here. Bob Dole expands his electoral vote count to 152. We are right back in a moment.


9.46 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We have now two projections: First, the state of Mississippi. Senator Dole was prevailed in this crucial southern state and earned these electoral votes. Al Gore hoped to win here by turning a black voters. It turns out they have succeeded in this goal, but it was just not enough to flip the state. But there are good news for Democrats as well: Al Gore has carried the state of Pennsylvania! With 95% of the vote in, Al Gore has a four point lead, 51% to 46.9%. Big win for Al Gore. 25 Electoral votes. However, Bob Dole is still leading the overall count:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 159 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 129 EV.
Too close/early to call: 154 EV.


10.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: It's ten o'clock here in our studio in New York City, and you are watching election night 1988. We have two poll closings from the Mountain West: Montana and Utah. NBC News is confident to call both for Bob Dole. While Utah is hardly a surprise, a number of Democratic operatives have urged the Gore campaign to go for Montana, as they felt the state was winnable. However, campaign officials have dismissed the idea and preferred to campaign in the South, Midwest and go heavy for California.

There is another state we can call at poll closing now. That may come as a surprise: The state of Iowa goes right into the Gore column. Typically contested terrain, but with half of the vote in, it looks like Al Gore is winning by over ten points. Pundits attribute this to the Reagan Administration's handling of the farm crisis, that was subject to widespread criticism. Bob Dole tried to distance himself from the administration during the final weeks of the campaign, but it looks as if that wasn't successful. At least not with Iowa farmers, who chose to vote for Al Gore in large numbers.

As you noticed, several states with earlier poll closings weren't called yet. Let me give you some updates from three states with more than 85% counted how things stand. As you can see, this race is an absolute nailbiter:

Ohio (89% in)
GORE (D).... 1,935,644 (49.5%)
DOLE (R).... 1,921,832 (49.1%)


Missouri (85% in)
GORE (D).... 870,049 (48.9%)
DOLE (R).... 867,731 (48.8%)


Vermont (92% in)
DOLE (R).... 111,709 (49.9%)
GORE (D).... 109,918 (49.1%)


Before heading into the break, let's also take a look at the overall picture: Bob Dole still ahead, but still not near the 270 he needs. Al Gore is within striking distance and many more calls remain open.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 168 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 137 EV.
Too close/early to call: 154 EV.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What are the results from Florida and Illinois so far

[President Johnson]

What are the results from Florida and Illinois so far

Will be posted tomorrow Some states will be extremely, extremely close. I'm working at a full election result in Excel with basically changing the real percentages state by state.

[darklordoftech]

Make sure to include how Gore and Dole do with different age groups.

[Chips]

This is looking like a really, really close race right now. But I predict Dole will just barely squeak out a win. I wouldn't be surprised in the least though if Gore won.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What are the results from Florida and Illinois so far

Will be posted tomorrow Some states will be extremely, extremely close. I'm working at a full election result in Excel with basically changing the real percentages state by state.

Looking forward to more

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART IV




10.28 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a key race projection from the State of Michigan: NBC News is joining the New York Times and our colleagues over at ABC, who minutes ago called Al Gore the winner in Michigan. With 99.8% of the vote in, Al Gore and Lawton Chiles have edged out a narrow win in this extremely critical Midwestern State. This could be the first major call of night. As counting comes to an end, Al Gore has an advantage of about 1.2%. He won 50.1% of the vote, while Bob Dole received around 48.9%. Someone who knows Michigan all too well is our studio guest, former President Gerald Ford. Mr. President, what is your take?

President Ford: Well, Tom, it's certainly a big call for Senator Gore tonight and I congratulate him on winning Michigan. This has always been a state that backed candidates of both parties. The result you show on your screen reflects how close this entire election is. Senator Dole campaigned hard in the state and I did everything I could in both Michigan and my now-homestate California. But a win is a win, and Mr. Gore has added 20 important votes to his tally. That being said, there are still enough opportunities for both candidates to reach 270. I believe that Bob Dole will prevail in the end. But Senator Gore has already run a strong race. Much stronger than the previous candidates. I believe he has a future, even if Bob Dole will become our new president.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you, Sir. We will be back in five minutes.



10.39 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We are back in our studio, and we have three more calls to make: As goes Michigan, so goes Wisconsin. We can now confirm that Al Gore has taken the state of Wisconsin. Important win for the Democratic nominee. But there is some silver lining for the Dole campaign: Bob Dole is now the official winner in Colorado. It took a while to count all the votes here, but a fairly easy win for him in this Mountain state.

And finally, we have a call to make from Vermont, the last New England state that hasn't been called: Bob Dole narrowly carried Vermont, we can now confirm. The difference here was less than a half percentage point, or around 880 votes. Usually this is going to trigger a recount. Should the Electoral College get extremely tight, we may he heading for more than one recount and potential legal battles. Let's take a look at the updated map, as more and more color gets filled in:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 179 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 168 EV.
Too close/early to call: 112 EV.


10.50 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++


Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have another call to make. This time from a Southern state: NBC News is now projecting that Al Gore is the winner in Arkansas. Major flip for the Democrats, as the Gore campaign made a heavy pitch for this state. It's fair to say this victory can be attributed in large part to efforts of Governor Bill Clinton, who vigorously campaigned for Al Gore. Governor Clinton is a rising star in the party and gave the Keynote Speech at the DNC. He was considered a potential candidate himself, but declined to run later last year. However, Governor Clinton is part of Al Gore's transition team. Should he win the presidency, we might very well see Mr. Clinton in a major role such as Attorney General or Treasury Secretary.

Let me also give you an update on the battlegrounds. Just look how tight these numbers are. This race is an absolute nailbiter. We are prepared for a long night. If you plan to watch this to the end, I might suggest you have another cup of coffee.


Florida (88% in)
DOLE (R).... 1,874,088 (49.5%)
GORE (D).... 1,862,729 (49.2%)


Illinois (96% in)
GORE (D).... 2,162,544 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 2,162,129 (49.4%)


New Mexico (93% in)
DOLE (R).... 236,096 (48.7%)
GORE (D).... 233,187 (48.1%)


Ohio (95% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,075,319 (49.7%)
GORE (D).... 2,041,091 (48.9%)


Missouri (93% in)
GORE (D).... 961,671 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 957,777 (49.2%)




11.00 p.m.


Tom Brokaw: Polls are closed at the West Coast and in Nevada and Idaho. We have two immediate calls from these states: Bob Dole was won the state of Idaho. No surprise here, he has done remarkably well in Mountain states, which is why you a lot of blue on the map. In the state of Washington, though, we can declare Al Gore the winner. It is not overall surprising that he won, but how fast we can project that. Our reports out West said there was high turnout in Seattle, which heavily went to Gore.

We are not able to call Oregon and Nevada. We're also unable to call California, the biggest prize of the night. Its 47 electoral votes were heavily targeted by both campaigns and we expect a close race. We expect Senator Dole to do well in the Central Valley and parts of SoCal, while Al Gore has strong support in the Bay Area and around Los Angeles.

I just wanted to show you our new map, but I received word we have another projection from the South: Georgia has been called in Bob Dole's favor! Big win for the Republican ticket. Al Gore and Lawton Chiles, both Southerners, hoped to win back some of these Carter 1976 and 1980 voters and take Georgia. It turns out they did improve from Walter Mondale's disastrous showing four years ago, but not enough to overcome Atlanta suburbs that went heavily for Bob Dole.

Take a look at our refreshed map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 195 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 184 EV.
Too close/early to call: 152 EV.

Stay tuned, we will be back in a few moments.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hmm at this point I think Ohio looks good for Dole so if we give him that along with Alaska that gets him to 221 EV and I think Nevada , New Mexico , Lousiana will also go for Dole giving him 240 EV .

On the other hand Florida and Missouri look good for Gore so if we give him that along with Oregon and Hawaii that gives him 227 EV .

Looks like California will decide the ball game as Illionis doesn't have enough EV to get either Dole or Gore over the 270 Mark . Dole not being as connected to Reagan as Bush was may hurt him when it comes to turning our Republican voters in Southern California . On the other hand Dole may have trouble turning out Democratic voters in Northern California so it may even out

[Chips]

This is still very close but I think Gore will take this one.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART V




11.17 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Welcome back at this late hour to our Election Night Coverage. For those of you just tuning in, we don't have a newly elected president at this moment, and it looks like we won't have one within the next hour or so. Maybe not even tomorrow morning. It is still a very tight race between Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, the Republican nominee, and Senator Al Gore of Tennessee, the Democratic nominee.

The long awaited result from Louisiana is now in, and it comes as a surprise: Al Gore has defeated Bob Dole in the state of Louisiana. We project that he takes the state and its ten electoral votes by about three points. This is another key flip in the South for the Gore campaign. As the night proceeds, all eyes are on big prizes left uncalled: California, Ohio, Illinois and Florida. The latter two are especially important to both campaigns, as they are the homestates of the two vice presidential candidates.

The two candidates have now almost equal the number of electoral votes. Take a look:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 195 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 194 EV.
Too close/early to call: 142 EV.


11.27 p.m. +++ Democrats retain House of Representatives +++


Wikimedia Commons (PD)


Tom Brokaw: While the presidential contest remains a dead heat, we have a major call: The Democrats will retain the majority in the House of Representatives for another two years. It looks like this is pretty much an even election with little change from the 1986 midterm elections. Democrats have surpassed the 218 votes necessary. We believe Democrats have at least 245 seats, Republicans at least 160. All thee rest remains to be called, but it's enough for a majority at this hour. President Ford, you served in the House for over two decades. What's your take?

President Ford: Tom, it is certainly a setback for Republicans. We urgently need to address the question how we are unable to win a majority for decades now, despite winning several presidential elections by healthy margins. I admit, Republicans fell short under my leadership as well, but we need to address this. That said, I have faith that Bob Dole, if elected, will establish a strong working relationship with the Democrats and get votes for items he thinks are necessary. On the other hand, a President Gore would be in a tough position either, as he would have to moderate between various factions within the Democratic conference.

Tom Brokaw: You are certainly right, Mr. President. Over on the senate side, we don't have a call yet, but it looks like Democrats will keep this chamber as well. We go into a short break.


11.41 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++


Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a very important call to make: With 99% of the vote counted in Ohio, we are now confident to declare Bob Dole the winner in Ohio. An extremely crucial victory for the Dole campaign. Republicans never won the White House without Ohio. On the contrary, only Thomas Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960 carried Ohio and still lost the White House. Now I want to turn to our reporter in Kansas at Dole Headquarters. How is the mood there?

Reporter I: Tom, people were cheering when the call came! They are excited, as you can hear in the background. This is a state they absolutely banked on. Especially now that we are seeing Al Gore doing better than predicted by the polls and pundits. Republicans have definitely grown more nervous, especially with regard to California. Can they win over enough voters that Ronald Reagan appealed to in the Golden State? That's the big question tonight. But I can tell you, Ohio has definitely given them a sign of relief. They hope the close the deal with California and Illinois as Florida appears to be a total wildcard.

Tom Brokaw: Interesting impressions, thank you. Let's go over the Nashville, Tennessee, where thousands of people have gathered in front of Gore headquarters. What's going on there?

Reporter II: Tom, the mood here is very positive and joyful. So you right here all the Gore/Chiles banners. Many Democrats were still in sort of shock and disappointment over the last election cycles, but with no Ronald Reagan on the ballot, the Republicans seem beatable with this energetic candidate they nominated. When Ohio was called moments ago, there was some breath taking, but all eyes are now on California, Missouri and Florida. I spoke with campaign operatives just minutes ago and they told me to be very confident about California, as Al Gore is appealing not just to liberals from San Francisco and Los Angeles, but also Silicon Valley. Remember, innovation and technology have been a centerpiece of this campaign. They're also optimistic that Lawton Chiles, the popular senator from the Sunshine State, can deliver his homestate to the Gore column. With that being said, back to New York City.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you, both once again. And I just received word about another call from the West Coast: Al Gore is the winner in the state of Oregon. Seven additional votes for him. And this is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 218 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 201 EV.
Too close/early to call: 112 EV.


Before we go on, I want to give you an update on the remaining states we have to watch very carefully:

California (86% in)
GORE (D).... 4,259,940 (50.1%)
DOLE (R).... 4,140,899 (48.7%)


Florida (95% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,027,250 (49.6%)
GORE (D).... 2,006,814 (49.1%)


Illinois (98% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,225,034 (49.8%)
GORE (D).... 2,211,626 (49.5%)


New Mexico (96% in)
DOLE (R).... 243,712 (48.7%)
GORE (D).... 242,712 (48.5%)


Missouri (96% in)
GORE (D).... 1,004,749 (50.0%)
DOLE (R).... 992,691 (49.4%)




12. a.m.; November 9

Tom Browkaw: It is midnight here in New York City right now, and out West, we have the last polls closed. That means, we technically elected a president, it just takes additional time to count all the votes and determine, who the American people chose. But, for this moment, we can project Bob Dole the winner of Alaska and its three electoral votes. When it comes to Hawaii, we project Al Gore to be the winner here. The Dole campaign actually hoped to win this state by appealing to Asian American voters, praising the Compensation bill President Reagan signed this year. But, it didn't win Bob Dole Hawaii.


12.15 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, I have two calls to make, but one of them is significant. NBC News goes ahead and declares Bob Dole the winner of Florida. With nearly all votes counted, it appears as if Bob Dole has narrowly carried the Sunshine State. This is a huge prize for him. A state they always felt comfortable, but the selection of Lawton Chiles as Democratic candidate for vice president turned things upside down. Right now, it appears as if Senator Chiles narrowly fell short to get these 21 electoral votes for Al Gore. That undoubtedly means the path to a Gore presidency has gotten narrower. They heavily rely on California. But if they win California and Missouri, where Al Gore is ahead, it would only get then to 263. Al Gore needs Illinois on top of that, where he is currently down by a slight margin, after being ahead earlier.

And one more call for Senator Dole: The state of Nevada. Not a big prize, but as he is getting closer to 270, still an important one. Check our updated map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 246 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 205 EV.
Too close/early to call: 87 EV.


We will be back in a few minutes. Stay tuned for more!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

[President Johnson]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

Not spoiling anything, but if election night looked like this, Gore would may just rely on recounts. Illinois has 98% of the vote and he is trailing. Illinois alone puts Dole at 270, while he's also ahead in New Mexico.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

Not spoiling anything, but if election night looked like this, Gore would may just rely on recounts. Illinois has 98% of the vote and he is trailing. Illinois alone puts Dole at 270, while he's also ahead in New Mexico.

I wonder what the NY Times Live Forecast would look like if it existed then . The question would be of course where the remaining votes in Illionis are coming for, if there are more outstanding in the Chicago Suburbs then its all over for Gore , if more outstanding in the city of Chicago itself Gore Id say would have 30% chance of winning it.


So the forecast probably would be 80% Dole , 20% Gore(Since Dole could pull out a win in California too)

[President Johnson]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

Not spoiling anything, but if election night looked like this, Gore would may just rely on recounts. Illinois has 98% of the vote and he is trailing. Illinois alone puts Dole at 270, while he's also ahead in New Mexico.

I wonder what the NY Times Live Forecast would look like if it existed then . The question would be of course where the remaining votes in Illionis are coming for, if there are more outstanding in the Chicago Suburbs then its all over for Gore , if more outstanding in the city of Chicago itself Gore Id say would have 30% chance of winning it.


So the forecast probably would be 80% Dole , 20% Gore(Since Dole could pull out a win in California too)

Not sure about California. At least today, Democratic margins increase as the night proceeds. I remember back in 2018, it took a while before Newsom got over 60%. Also looked like Orange County was going Republican, before Newsom took the lead.

One way or the other, I think California was winnable for Democrats in 1988. Poppy just won by around four, and Dukakis was a terrible candidate. Especially his perceived weakness on law and order hurt him badly in California.

[Chips]

Hey, I'd like to announce that I have been accepted to participate in this thread as well. Look for an election night timeline from me sometime. It will be either the 2000 or 2004 election but I haven't yet decided what I want to do in terms of candidates or what the final electoral map will look like at the end.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART VI




12.27 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert: Florida call taken back! +++




Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we interrupt the break for an unprecedented call: NBC News, along with ABC, is taking back the call from the state of Florida. This came as another junk of votes was added from the Miami Area that went largely for Al Gore. Our reporters just moments ago reached the office of the governor and secretary of state, which both confirmed a few thousand ballots remain to be counted. The map once again has changed:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 225 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 205 EV.
Too close/early to call: 108 EV.

I repeat for those just tuning in, the call of Florida for Bob Dole has been taken back by multiple news sources at this hour. As a result, the Sunshine state moves back into the undecided column. I have never experienced something like this, and we would like to apologize for the premature call. We will later have to find out, what exactly prompted the call. What I can tell you, is that Bob Dole increased his small lead over the last two junks of votes being added. Now, with more coming in, his lead de facto disappeared.

Can we get the numbers on the screen? I was told yes. So here they are. I mean, if anything can be called a dead heat, this is one.

Florida (99%)
DOLE (R).... 2,104,113 (49.4%)
GORE (D).... 2,104,074 (49.4%)


So, this election night is far from over. It might very well happen that there won't be a winner for days, perhaps weeks. Depending on how the remaining states vote. What is for sure, that there is going to be big relief at Gore Headquarters.

We are now once again going to Kansas, where our reporter is at the Republican election night party. How is the mood right now?

Reporter I: Tom, I have to tell you, when this call was taken back, there was silence going through the hall. Kind of shock, almost as if the election was lost. The mood has certainly changed among supporters here. I spoke to a high ranking Republican just moments ago, and he told me that this was a devastating blow to the Dole campaign. What's interesting is that he hinted not to count on California. So, Tom, right now, they are not talking about California. The Dole campaign it seems is still banking on Florida to come back. They feel good about Illinois and New Mexico, which would put them over 270. But it's remarkable they played down the possibility of winning California. It is possible they have some internals showing the state has moved away from them. All eyes are on Florida now. Back to New York.

Tom Brokaw: Indeed remarkable. Could we see the numbers in California again?

California (92% in)
GORE (D).... 4,611,722 (50.7%)
DOLE (R).... 4,393,416 (48.3%)


Yeah, it looks like our reporter from Kansas was head on. Al Gore has increased his lead in the Golden State. Losing the state would be a huge blow for the Republican ticket. This is President Reagan's homestate. As recent as two days ago, he made some campaign stumps for Senator Dole. And we saw that these crowds were much larger and enthusiastic when the president was there. It might be that some Californians, who like Ronald Reagan, just wanted to give a political newcomer a chance. The numbers are they are right now in California is probably the biggest surprise of this night. And if California goes for Gore, the Dole campaign will have to analyze what went wrong even if they end up winning 270 electoral votes. But right now, no call has been made.


12.40 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: There is some silver lining for the Dole campaign after Florida was taken out of his column. The state of New Mexico has been called for the Republican ticket. A very narrow win. But a win is a win, and Mr. Dole collects these five electoral votes.

And one more call is just coming in: The state of Missouri will award its 11 electoral votes to Al Gore. Important victory for Al Gore. Typically a swing state for several decades now, that voted for Democrats and Republicans back and forth. This time around, Missouri voters have decided to go for the Democrats by a close margin.

This is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 230 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 216 EV.
Too close/early to call: 92 EV.

Wow! Three states are left on the map. Three states that will now determine the outcome of this election. Bob Dole, standing at 230, needs either California or both of the voters to be elected the 41st President of the United States. Al Gore definitely has to win California, where he is ahead in the vote count, plus one of Florida and Illinois. He's trailing by a hair in latter, while Florida is a complete dead heat. Stay tuned for more!

[Chips]

Down to the wire.