A More Perfect Union: The Next DKrol Alt TL
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DKrol
dkrolga
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« on: August 23, 2023, 09:36:01 AM »

As Jordan said, I’m back.

After taking several years off from writing Alt TLs, I’ve gotten the itch again. For those of you who’ve been around for a while, I’ll be revisiting the very first Alt TL I wrote back in 2013. I’ve recently gotten a laptop for the first time in years. Part of the reason I stopped writing was I switched to an iPad-only setup and writing longform content on an iPad is so frustrating for me.

Expect a first post at some point over the weekend.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2023, 08:56:58 PM »

Welcome back! I liked your timelines, but I can't remember which one in particular you are referring to.


EDIT: You mean the parliamentary America one!!!?? Can I help you write this? I love that premise!
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DKrol
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2023, 07:38:50 AM »

Welcome back! I liked your timelines, but I can't remember which one in particular you are referring to.


EDIT: You mean the parliamentary America one!!!?? Can I help you write this? I love that premise!

Yes! Back then it was called The American Commonwealth and began in 1990 with Prime Minister Ted Kennedy vs Opposition Leader Ronald Reagan. This won’t be in the same universe, just on the same general alternative history premise. I don’t believe I’ll be starting with the 1990s like I did back then - I’m imaging a 2015-2020 starting point with flashbacks/allusions to the prior decades woven throughout.  I’m working on the backstory right now, how America got to a parliamentary system, which I’m pretty sure I never explained in the original TL.
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2023, 03:27:05 PM »

Can't wait!
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DKrol
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2023, 10:45:38 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2023, 07:03:45 AM by DKrol »

Prelude I: The Fall of the Old Republic


[1]


The presidential election of 1876 was the second most contentious election in America’s hundred-year history, coming only just behind the 1860 race that ended in the First American Civil War. With the memories of the First American Civil War still fresh in the minds of the American people, 1876 was always going to be a difficult affair. Incumbent President Ulysses Grant was largely popular and expected to seek an unprecedented third term. When he chose not to, preferring to write his memoirs and spend his days in New York, the Republican Party was forced to make a choice. Would they continue to pursue Grant’s Radical Republican brand, using the full might of the federal government to enforce desegregation, or would they adopt a more conciliatory position towards the formal rebel states?

Despite President Grant’s best efforts, the 1876 Republican Convention chose Governor Rutherford B. Hayes of Ohio as their nominee, over Grant’s choice - Secretary of State Hamilton Fish. Hayes had a history of supporting the Radical Republicans but, during the campaign, took on a softer tone in an effort to win over some upper-class Southern voters who could prove decisive in a close race. His Democratic opponent, however, was from the Bourbon Democratic faction - Governor Samuel Tilden of New York. The Democratic platform called for a wholesale rejection of the Grant legacy: tariff reform, an end to corruption, and an end to Reconstruction. Both parties supported civil service reform, so a large part of the debate and discourse centered around civil rights.

Democratic paramilitary organizations were a central figure of the 1876 campaign. Roving bands of armed white citizens terrorized the South. Republican meetings and campaign events were often disrupted, and meetings of Black voters were often set up with harsh violence. President Grant was not afraid to send in the Army to enforce the post-First American Civil War reform laws, but only so much could be done.

As the votes were counted, it became clear, quickly, that there would be problems. The official counts in Florida, South Carolina, and Louisiana all reported for Tilden, giving him and the Democrats the White House. Republicans, however, alleged that those votes were unfairly counted and that all eligible voters had not been given a fair and free exercise of their franchise. When the Congress met to read, report, and certify the Electoral College votes, further conflict arose - all three states had sent multiple certified slates of electors. Some were signed by outgoing governors, some by incoming, one by an attorney general, one by the state postmaster general. With such confusion, and no Constitutional guidance on how to proceed, the Congress agreed to form an extraordinary Electoral Commission.

The Commission, however, held an 8-7 Republican advantage and voted, along party lines, to grant all three states to Hayes and, with them, the presidency. Democrats did not accept that result, calling the Commission an illegitimate farce and an extension of the so-called War of Northern Aggression. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives voted to reject the Commission’s report, stalling the Election of 1876 in a deadlock, with the Republican Senate approving the report.

As Inauguration Day rapidly approached, the situation in Washington grew increasingly bleak. President Grant sat at the White House, attempting to prepare Governor Hayes for the awesome responsibility, while Congressional leaders openly fought over what would happen on March 4th. Democrats were prepared to swear Governor Tilden in, while Republicans were adamant that Hayes had won. Neither side was prepared to cave. Threats of physical violence intensified in the days prior.

March 5th, 1877 will be remembered as the day that broke the Republic. At noon, Governor Hayes was taking the oath of office on the East Portico of the Capitol, joined by Republican Senate President Pro Tempore Thomas Ferry. At the same time, however, Governor Tilden was taking the oath of office in the Rotunda, flanked by Democratic Speaker Samuel Randall and Senate leader John Stevenson. Raucous crowds in support of both men stood outside the Capitol. President Grant was noticeably absent from either ceremony. Despite his term in office ending at noon, he remained at the White House.

Grant was known throughout his career as a man with a deep sense of duty to his country. As Inauguration Day drew closer, the President huddled with his inner circle of advisors on how to proceed. The most partisan advisors urged the President to side with the Republican Senate and recognize Hayes as his successor. It would be fitting, they felt, to cement his legacy as the hero of Reconstruction by overriding Southern objections and supporting a Northern Republican. But a minority believed the moment, 1877, called for something even greater. Something that had never been considered before, not since George Washington peacefully returned to his farm at the end of his second term.

At 12:05 PM on March 5th, President Grant emerged from his office and informed his advisors he sided with the minority. They then ushered in a number of newsmen who had been kept on-site in order to break the news to the nation. President Grant, acting under his authority as “Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States”, would remain in office to “see and support the nation through this time of great crisis”. Grant issued a written decree hours later, announcing that the Constitution of 1789 had been “suspended for the duration of the crisis” and until “the legitimate successor can be established”.

As word spread through Washington, and then the nation, simmering resentment erupted into outright violence. In the South, white citizen militias attacked any Republican or Black person they came across. In large cities, protests - both against the Tilden Oath and against Grant’s actions - swelled to the point of confrontation. Police struggled to maintain order and, frequently, failed to do so. Dozens of people died in the first week of March, with scores more arrested. Many others simply disappeared in the chaos.

Tilden, believing he was the legitimate President, attempted to travel to the White House from the Capitol and claim it for himself. He entourage quickly discovered that the streets had turned into battlefields. Hayes supporters and Tilden supporters quarreled with each other, as Grant’s troops moved in to dispel both of them. Tilden was forced to retreat from Washington to Richmond, where he took the Virginia Governor’s Mansion as his temporary residence.

Hayes believed that, at the end of the day, Grant would hand power over to him, once a consensus had developed behind the Electoral Commission’s findings. He and his cadre returned to their hotel in Washington. Safe from the violence below, Hayes took the time to write a letter to his wife and family in Ohio. He described the day as “the most remarkable and profoundly odd day I believe any man alive has experienced”. He assured them that he would be moving into the White House “before the summer heat sets in” and he would send for them to join him “before the autumn”.

That prediction proved deeply misguided.

_________________________________

[1] - Wikimedia Commons, PD
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DKrol
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2023, 12:50:16 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2023, 08:33:22 PM by DKrol »

Prelude II: The Birth of the New Republic


[1]

President Grant knew his decision would be controversial. He had the loyalty of the Army and the Navy, of course, as they revered General Grant for his heroism during the First American Civil War. And the various governors either declared for Grant or Governor Tilden largely in-line with how their state had voted in the election. In much of the South, dualing governments re-emerged, with one military governor installed by President Grant competing with a Democratic government installed by the white citizen militias. The titans of industry, however, proved to be key allies to President Grant in his effort to remain in power.

Billy Vanderbilt, having just inherited his father’s empire, was eager to see profitable train lines run coast to coast. A large scale rebellion would be an impediment to that effort and he believed Northern Republicans would never accept Tilden as President - while Southern rebels could be brought to heel under the strongman Grant. Similarly reliant on a growing rail industry, Andrew Carnegie saw the surest path to increased profits in supporting Grant. Further, for many, the Democratic promises of tariff reform threatened the way of business that had swollen their coffers in the preceding decades. With the backing of each Robber Baron came critical public opinion support for Grant via the many newspapers they supported.

By April of 1877, Governor Hayes was largely out of the picture in the battle for the New Republic. Grant had summoned him to the White House in mid-March and informed the Ohioan that he did believe that he could “adequately make good on the promises made to the Black Americans while keeping the people of the nation as one nation”. Despite Hayes' protestations, Grant was certain that when he designated his successor, it would not be Governor Hayes. Grant allowed Hayes to remain in Washington during the Second American Civil War, but as little more than a political prisoner, confined to a suite at a downtown hotel where the President could monitor his letters and visitors.

Tilden, from Virginia, maintained that he was the legitimate President of the United States and rallied many men to his cause. In the early morning hours of April 9, 1877, Tilden and an army of 15,000 men - many of them Confederate veterans - departed from Richmond, with their sights set on Washington. Grant, however, was aware of the troop movements and had prepared. Roadblocks were set along the route and bridges were barricaded. Tilden’s Army moved slowly, but they moved.

Three days later, outside of Alexandria, Tilden met Grant in the field of battle. Grant commanded a Union Army of nearly 20,000 troops, again made of many veterans of the First American Civil War. Tilden shouted an order for Grant and his men to stand down; Grant did the same to Tilden. The two claimants to the White House stared each other down, taking the measure of the man.

The Union Army had several advantages. They were rested, having traveled much shorter of a distance. They had more cavalry and a better commander. They also had a significant numerical advantage over the Southerners. It was the Southern Army that made the first charge, which did break the first Union line and cause minor chaos for a moment or two. But once the Union’s battle plan set in, the Battle of Alexandria was always in their favor. The Union cavalry smashed the Southern flank while their infantry held the line. The arrival of two gun boats along the banks of the Potomac sealed the day for the Union, as Tilden led a hasty retreat.

Small battles and skirmishes broke out during the summer and fall of 1877. Notable battles occurred in Atlanta, Georgia; Memphis, Tennessee; Washington, D.C.; Sacramento, California; Denver, Colorado; and Boston, Massachusetts. Tilden’s supporters and loyal forces may have won a small victory here and there on the day but, by and large, the Second American Civil War was tilted towards Grant and his men from the start.

Into 1878, President Grant solidified his hold on power. He issued a new, temporary Constitution - the Wartime Constitution - in February, 1878. It established a new Council of the Republic, made of 17 popularly elected delegates to serve as a check on the President’s authority. The delegates were apportioned based on a complicated formula derived from the proportional voting population of each region - but designed to ensure a Grant-friendly majority at all times with a requirement for a loyalty oath to Grant, not to the Wartime Constitution. The Wartime Constitution also gave the President the authority to replace and appoint any government official “deemed and confirmed to be an enemy of the Republic”. A brief convention, held in New York and financed by the Robber Barons, was held to ratify the Wartime Constitution and affirm Grant’s legitimacy.

Tilden was evicted from the Virginia Governor’s Mansion in March of 1878 after a year of residency. The elected Governor was facing the threat of removal from Grant and, with the Union Army stationed so close by, he was anxious to comply. Tilden then traveled from state to state, taking up temporary residence close to wherever the battle of the moment was. Frankfort, Kentucky; Knoxville and Nashville, Tennessee; Birmingham, Alabama; and Houston, Texas were all home to the Democratic Presidency at various points during the Second American Civil War.

Eventually, the Southern people became disillusioned with Tilden. Some never truly supported the New York Governor, believing him to be a carpetbagger using them for his own political gain. Others lost faith when the North and West, largely, acquiesced to Grant’s Wartime Constitution with only a few squabbles. On October 25, 1879, Samuel Tilden found himself trapped on Galveston Island with only a handful of loyalists left to support him. A mob of Southern landowners stormed the house Tilden had occupied, bound him up, and presented the traitor to the Union-appointed Governor at a ceremony in Houston.

President Grant ordered a speedy trial for Tilden, charging him with sedition and treason against the Republic. Under a new directive from the President, the Council of the Republic was given judicial authority to try and sentence “the most serious crimes against the Republic”. In a short trial, Tilden was found guilty and sentenced to death by hanging. On a cold winter’s day, January 1, 1880, Samuel Tilden was hanged for treason from a hastily erected gallows at Fort Sumner in nearby Maryland. Grant personally oversaw the execution.

With his most serious political opponent dispatched with, Grant returned his focus to Reconstruction. The Wartime Constitution made it explicitly a serious violation of the law to “deny any man, otherwise rightfully eligible to vote and experience other vestiges of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, such an ability for the color of his skin or the status of his birth”. Grant gradually re-established popularly-elected governors in the rebel states and devoted large scale federal resources to disbanding and arresting white citizens militias, as well as securing not only physical ballot boxes but also the polling places themselves. By 1882, all 38 states had popularly-elected governors and 34 had popularly-elected legislatures. Only South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi were denied elected legislatures by Grant, on grounds that further work was required to “secure the free franchise”, and instead were run by the governor and an appointed council.

With the Second American Civil War won, questions arose as to when the Wartime Constitution would end and, sequentially, when President Grant would hand over power. Grant refused to see himself as a dictator. He firmly believed, as he wrote in his diary, that he was “protecting the last vestiges of the Republic envisioned by George Washington and Thomas Jefferson”. In his 1882 Christmas Address, Grant said that he believed that “the ideals of the Washingtonian Republic were perhaps too lofty for mere mortals to hold, once passed down from those On High”.

In 1883, Grant, now in his 14th year as President, finally fully committed to settling the constitutional question. As he made clear in 1882, he now believed that the 1789 Constitution was untenable and could not be brought back. No man could be elected to have such significant power while maintaining the support of the majority of the people. He also did not believe that “most men could assume the powers I have and not become a Caesar”. Some encourage Grant to maintain the Wartime Constitution and serve as President for Life, leaving the matters of succession for a later time. But Grant knew that would destroy the Republic and cause further discord upon his death. He has also started to feel a persistent tickle in his throat, perhaps telling him his own time would be coming.

On June 20th, 1883, President Grant unveiled his 1883 Constitution. Beginning in the spring of 1884, Americans would go to the polls in a double-barreled election. First, they would vote to elect a President of the Republic. The President would be a largely symbolic head of state, representing Americans at home and abroad and giving consent to new laws. Second, they would elect a new Parliament of 875 members, each representing about 70,000 constituents and empowered to select a Prime Minister from within their own numbers. Grant believed that such a system, with a large, diverse legislature, an executive responsible at any time to the majority of the Parliament, and a weak, symbolic President would cure the ills of excess, greed, discord, and corruption found in Washington’s Republic.

After a constitutional convention in Baltimore affirmed the 1883 Constitution in December, Americans went to the polls on Monday, March 10th, 1884 - almost six years to the day since the Second American Civil War began.

Ulysses Grant was easily elected as the first President of the Second American Republic. He faced a splintered, fractured opposition that allowed him to easily eclipse his closest rival - Mississippi Governor Adelbert Ames - by 17%. Later Presidents and Parliaments would implement a run-off system, whereby the President is now required to win a majority of the votes, either the first or a second round. But Grant was able to secure five more years in the White House with only 44% of the vote in 1884.

The First Parliament of the Second American Republic was dominated by two parties. The Liberal Union Party, filled with those who saw themselves as the Heirs of Grant, won many urban and Northern seats. Their leader, James G. Blaine of Augusta, was the clear choice for the first Prime Minister; the Liberal Unionists held 440 seats in the 875-seat body. The official opposition was led by Thomas Bayard of Wilmington Beach and his County Party, holding 375 seats. Benjamin Butler of Lowell led the Progressive Party and their 45 MPs in Washington, while Gideon Stewart of Greater Canton commanded a 12-member Prohibition Party caucus. Samuel Randall of Philadelphia West and his Conservative Party, comprised of only the strictest hold outs to the late Tilde’s efforts, rounded out the First Parliament with a lonely three members.

Although President Grant would pass away during his first term in the Second Republic, his impact would live on for centuries to come.

Presidents of the Second Republic

Ulysses S. Grant (1888-1890)
Robert Todd Lincoln (1890-1900)
William McKinley (1900-1920)
Calvin Coolidge (1920-1925)
John Pershing (1925-1940)
Wendell Wilkie (1940-1950)
Dwight Eisenhower (1950-1960)
Herbert Hoover (1960-1965)
Lyndon Baines Johnson (1965-1975)
Jimmy Carter (1975-1980)
Ronald Reagan (1980-1990)
Jerry Ford (1990-1995)
Colin Powell (1995-2010)
Wesley Clark (2010-2015)
Bob Gates (2015-2020)
John Kasich (2020-Present)


Prime Ministers of the Second Republic

James G. Blaine (1884-1890) - Liberal Union Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1884, 1888 (1st and 2nd Parliaments)
James A. Garfield (1890-1892) - Liberal Union Party
- Inherited a Majority Government (2nd Parliament)
William Jennings Bryant (1892-1900) — County Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1892, 1896 (3rd and 4th Parliaments)
Garret Hobart (1900-1912) - Liberal Union Party
- Won Minority Government in 1900, Majority Governments in 1903, 1907 (5th, 6th, and 7th Parliaments)
Hiram Johnson (1912-1917) - Progressive Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1912, 1915 (8th and 9th Parliaments)
Garret Hobart (1917-1922) - National Coalition
- Formed a Coalition Government in 1917 (10th Parliament)
Theodore Roosevelt (1922-1925) - Progressive Party
- Won Majority Government in 1922 (11th Parliament)
Warren G. Harding (1925-1932) - Liberal Party (1913)
- Won Majority Governments in 1925, 1927, 1930 (12th, 13th, and 14th Parliaments)
Herbert Hoover (1932-1933) - Progressive Party
- Won Minority Government in 1932 (15th Parliament)
Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1950) — Progressive Party
- Inherited a Minority Government in 1933, Won Majority Governments in 1935, 1940, 1945 (15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th Parliaments)
Harry Truman (1950-1956) - Labor Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1950, 1953 (19th and 20th Parliaments)
Harry Byrd (1956-1960) - County Party
- Won Minority Government in 1956 (21st Parliament)
Richard M. Nixon (1960-1970) - Conservative Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1960, 1964, 1968 (22nd, 23rd, and 24th Parliaments)
Robert F. Kennedy (1970-1982) - Labor Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1970, 1973, 1976, and a Minority Government in 1980 (25th, 26th, 27th, and 28th Parliaments)
George H.W. Bush (1982-1985) - Conservative Party
- Won Minority Government in 1982 (29th Parliament)
Bob Dole (1985-1988) - Conservative Party
- Won Minority Government in 1985 (30th Parliament)
Chuck Robb (1988-1993) - Liberal Party
- Won Majority Governments in 1988, 1990 (31st and 32nd Parliaments)
George H.W. Bush (1993-1996) - Conservative Party
- Won Majority Government in 1993 (33rd Parliament)
Tom Harkin (1996-2003) - Labor Party
- Won Minority Government in 1996, Majority Government in 2000 (34th and 35th Parliament
John Kerry (2003-2010) - Liberal Party
- Won Majority Governments in 2003, 2007 (36th and 37th Parliaments)
John McCain (2010-2014) - Conservative Party
- Won Minority Governments in 2010, 2013 (38th and 39th Parliaments)
Mitt Romney (2014-2016) - Conservative Party
- Inherited a Minority Government in 2014 (39th Parliament)
Kristi Noem (2016-2017) - National Party
- Inherited a Minority Government in 2016 (39th Parliament)
Joe Biden (2017-Present) - Liberal Party
- Won Minority Government in 2017, Majority Government in 2020 (40th and 41st Parliaments)

______________________

[1] - Wikimedia Commons, PD
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DKrol
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2023, 09:25:06 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2023, 01:28:12 PM by At-Large Senator DKrol »

Part I: Changing of the Guard


[1]

Composition of the 41st Parliament

Government:
Liberal Party - Joe Biden - 440 MPs

Official Opposition:
Conservative Party - John Thune - 195
National Party - Matt Gaetz - 77

Other Opposition:
Progressive Party - Elizabeth Warren - 88
Center Party - Michael Bloomberg - 75


Joe Biden and the Liberals had been in power for the last six years, first in a coalition with the Center Party after the 2017 election and then with their own mandate from 2020 onwards. Despite enacting a large, broadly popular legislative package that invested massive sums into the environment, clean energy programs, and health care, Biden himself was never particularly popular in the polls. His approval rating started in the mid-60% range but rapidly fell, and stayed, near a low of 40%. Focus groups frequently cited his age, his many gaffes, and his stumbling speech as reasons they didn’t like the Prime Minister.

As the life of the 41st Parliament drew to a close, Biden knew so to did his political career. When he campaigned for the Liberal Party leadership in 2016, he positioned himself as the vanguard of change, the staid hand to stabilize the nation before handing off power to the next generation. In his announcement speech, Biden lamented the rise of the National Party and their Christian nationalist platform, arguing their hateful rhetoric went against the spirit of the Second Republic. Many observers inside and outside of the party believed that he would see out the 2017 Coalition Government - after negotiating a deal with Michael Bloomberg to form the Government - and then step aside before the 2020 election. Although the left-wing of the Liberal Party did force a leadership review, Biden easily swept them aside and cemented his control over the country’s largest left-of-center party.

With the 2023 General Election gearing up, however, Biden was forced into making a choice. Would he lead his party towards a third government, despite his significant age and low personal approval ratings, or would he honor his promise - from 2016 - to make way for change? A man of faith, Biden prayed on the decision for some time. With the election slated under the 2008 Fixed Terms Parliament Act for October 9th, Biden was forced into making a decision in the early spring. On April 11th, the day after Easter, Prime Minister Biden held a press conference outside of Philadelphia House in Grant Park, Washington and announced he would be stepping down after seven years as Leader of the Liberal Party.

With a truly open leadership campaign for the first time in a generation, after Biden’s entrance in 2016 essentially cleared the field, save for leftist firebrand Kamala Harris, many Liberal MPs announced their bids. A mix of candidates and backgrounds emerged - some long-time loyal Liberals aiming for their moment, some up-and-coming stars hoping to catapult themselves forward.

First in the race was Harris, serving as Home Secretary since the 2020 election, followed by South Bend MP Pete Buttigieg, Veterans’ Affairs Minister, and Justice Secretary Amy Klobuchar. The backbench Brooklyn Park Slope MP Eric Adams and Scranton MP Matt Cartwright also entered the fray, to little fanfare. Labor Secretary Sherrod Brown flirted with a bid for a few weeks before deciding against it. Roy Cooper, a junior minister in the Justice Department, launched his long-shot bid the morning of the filing deadline, as did Equalities Minister Tammy Baldwin.

The leadership campaigns largely broke down into those who wanted to maintain Biden’s legacy - Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Baldwin - those who wanted to bring the party to the left - Harris and Cartwright - and those whose campaign lacked any kind of overarching message - Cooper and Adams. Biden and his closest allies, Foreign Secretary Chris Coons and Defense Secretary Richard Blumenthal, remained neutral throughout the campaign, although Biden-aligned advisors and commentators briefed the papers in favor of Buttigieg.

Despite serving loyally as Home Secretary for three years, the centrist bloc of the Liberal Party viewed Harris with suspicion. Many cited her lengthy challenge to Biden in the 2016 leadership race as the reason, although others cited her race and gender as the underlying cause. Harris received an early boost when her campaign was endorsed by the New York Times editorial board, calling her “the face of the future”. A coalition of left-leaning female MPs also endorsed Harris, including Mazie Hirono, Jacky Rosen, and Sheila Jackson Lee.

Buttigieg drew his biggest base of support from suburban MPs - the backbone of the Biden Liberals. Early endorsers for Buttigieg included Attorney General Don Beyer from Alexandria and backbenchers Steve Adler from Austin and Matt Mahan from San Jose. Atlanta North MP Jon Ossoff and Atlanta South MP Raphael Warnock also threw their support to Buttigieg, a big blow to the Harris team. Harris had been a major surrogate for Ossoff and Warnock in the 2020 General Election and was credited by many for getting the pair over the line.

Klobuchar and Baldwin, both centrist, establishment women from the Midwest, drew from the same base of support and found it difficult to stand out. Few of their colleagues were willing to choose between the pair, although Lansing MP and a minister in the Equalities Department Gretchen Whitmer did back her boss, Baldwin. Klobuchar turned to Dean Phillips and Tim Waltz, two home-state MPs, to run her campaign.

Adams ran his campaign on a series of media moments, talking to anyone who put a camera or microphone in his face. He drew raised eyebrows from the establishment for his frequent comments on energy, vibes, crystals, and spirituality. Cooper, meanwhile, focused his campaign events on abortion access and justice issues. Commentators felt that, despite his strong denials, Cooper’s campaign was focused on angling to become Home Secretary in the next Liberal cabinet. Cartwright found it hard to make inroads with the leftist wing - many found him personally agreeable and agreed his suburban seat would be valuable in the election, but believed it was best for their efforts to be targeted behind backing Harris.

Liberal MPs met at the Liberal Party Headquarters in Washington on May 1st to hold their series of elimination votes. Under the Biden-led reforms after the 2020 leadership review, a candidate was required to received 35 votes in the first round in order to advance, and then avoid coming in last on subsequent ballots in order to advance to a vote of the party membership. Biden had also instituted an uncodified rule that the outgoing leader was ineligible to vote for his successor.

First Ballot - 2023 Liberal Leadership, 439 Electors
Kamala Harris - 169
Pete Buttigieg - 158
Tammy Baldwin - 40
————————————————
Amy Klobuchar - 30
Eric Adams - 15
Roy Cooper - 15
Matt Cartwright - 12

Klobuchar and Cooper endorsed Buttigieg moments after being eliminated, while Cartwright threw his limited support to Harris. Adams praised himself for pulling in 15 votes and announced he would be leaving Parliament at the election and running for Mayor of New York City at the next election, in 2025.

Advisors and commentators looked to Baldwin to get out of the race and serve as kingmaker, perhaps extracting the Deputy Leadership or a Top-Four cabinet position out of the eventual winner. Given how far behind she was in the first MP's vote, unless there were mass defections from the frontrunners, Baldwin could not find a path to victory. She had hoped that Klobuchar would endorse her campaign and they would build a Midwestern coalition, crunching in on Buttigieg’s softer supporters and piping him for the second place slot. When Klobuchar went to Buttigieg, Baldwin knew her chance was over.

Hours after the First Ballot, minutes before the Second Ballot was to start, Tammy Baldwin ended her campaign. She did not make an endorsement at that time, as she argued that since the vote was shifting to the membership “the view of 40 MPs don’t matter”. Behind the scenes, however, her backers, led by Whitmer, made approaches to both Harris and Buttigieg to probe their openness to Baldwin assuming a senior leadership position. Harris’ team were intrigued by the idea of an all-woman party leadership, while Buttigieg chafed at the idea of the established stateswoman peering over his shoulder, an image they felt could undermine his standing.

Harris and Buttigieg met in a series of seven debates, hosted by various media organizations. Most were formal, polite, and civil. The debate in Miami, hosted by the Miami Herald, was notably combative and dramatic. Public polls showed Buttigieg with a hefty lead amongst the Liberal Party membership and Harris’ advisors had urged her to take the fight to the frontrunner. Harris opened the debate by calling Buttigieg “a corporate shell” for his early career as a consultant, warning he would “sell out the soul of the party for the desires of his donors”. Buttigieg bristled, slamming Harris for her 2016 leadership challenge against Biden, “the most impactful, transformational Prime Minister” since Kennedy, as well as calling into question how she cast her ballot in the private 2020 leadership review. Harris rebuffed that question of her loyalty by citing the many times she stood next to Biden on policy issues, while diminishing Buttigieg’s impact around the cabinet table.

Polls after the Miami debate showed that neither candidate made a significant dent on the other, which favored Buttigieg. But those same polls did find a negative hit on both of their personal favorability ratings. People who liked Harris did not like Buttigieg, and vice versa. Baldwin’s endorsement of Harris was lost in the media coverage of the Miami debate, despite the Harris campaign’s best efforts to push it to outlets across the spectrum.

Both candidates joined Liberal Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe on the stage at the Theodore Roosevelt Forum in New York City on September 5th. McAuliffe gave a speech thanking both candidates for running a spirited, healthy campaign and discussion on the future of the Liberal Party before announcing the results. The results proved to be far closer than the public polls had predicted. Post-election focus groups showed that Harris’ attacks on Buttigieg had landed with the party’s base, but may have come too late. Conservative Party operatives took note.

As the results were read out, balloons fell from the rafters and the crowd of party activists erupted into applause. In his office in Philadelphia House, Joe Biden let out a sigh of relief. Immediately after taking over as Liberal Leader, the new Prime Minister traveled to President Kasich’s office in the Eisenhower Executive Mansion and confirmed the 9th October election date.

Public Ballot - 2023 Liberal Leadership
Veterans’ Affairs Minister Pete Buttigieg - 50%
Home Secretary Kamala Harris - 47%
Spoiled Ballots - 3%

___________

[1] - Wikimedia Commons, PD
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DKrol
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2023, 01:38:40 PM »

Does anyone have any thoughts, questions, or feedback? It’s been a while since I’ve written a TL so I welcome any feedback to help me keep it sharp.
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2023, 01:27:57 PM »

Part II: The Faces Around the Commons


[1]

John Thune had emerged from the chaos of 2016 as the Leader of the Conservative Party after nearly a decade waiting in the wings as Chair of the Select Committee on Taxation, a frequent stepping stone for Conservative leaders. After John McCain was forced to resign as Prime Minister in 2014 due to his brain cancer diagnosis, Thune was approached by McCain’s staff and urged to stand for leader. But the Conservative Party was weak at the time, relying on an unwieldy National Party to prop up the Government after the 2010 Confidence-and-Supply agreement with the Center Party collapsed, and Thune saw the writing on the wall and declined to stand. Instead, Chancellor Mitt Romney was the clear front runner, challenged on his right flank by backbench rising star Cory Gardner and from the center by Appropriations Minister John Barrasso. Once Romney took over, he offered Thune the Chancellor’s portfolio. Thune, again, declined. Instead, Barrasso was elevated.

In 2016, Romney and Barrasso presented a budget that raised the highest tax bracket by 2%. They told the House that the increase would affect a very small number of earners - the Prime Minister himself included - but was absolutely necessary to close a budget hole caused by a downturn in government bond rates. The National Party erupted in fury. Leader and Deputy Prime Minister Kristi Noem attacked the Prime Minister, sitting next to her on the benches, for “failing to uphold the most basic pledge that holds this Government together - no new taxes”. Barrasso countered that the increase was not a new tax but, rather, a “reallocation” of existing taxes “for a limited period of time” to address “a specific, serious shortfall”. Although the budget was generally received well by the public and the media, especially when Romney emphasized that he personally qualified for the increase and was happy to pay it, it was clear from the outset there was not a majority for it in the Commons.

Instead of scuttling the entire Government and forcing a new election, as polls showed the Liberals sweeping back into power, Romney stood down as Prime Minister and Noem was invited by President Gates to lead the existing Coalition. The senior portfolios were swapped between the Conservatives and National MPs, the budget was scuttled, and Romney and Barrasso stood down. Without the centrist hands of Romney and Barrasso at the helm of the Government, the National agenda - despite National having half as many seats as the Conservatives - took over in a wave of nationalist fervor. Thune easily assumed the leadership of the party in an essentially uncontested race.

Noem tabled legislation to implement prayer in schools, loosen decades of carefully crafted gun control policies, and significantly decrease spending on health care. Noem’s Home Secretary, Mike Pompeo, led a charge to stop “dangerous foreign migrants” from “cannibalizing our society from within” and pushed legislation to severely limit the number of asylum visas granted each year. When a news story reported the death of seven young migrant girls in a detention facility in New Mexico, their deaths caused by overcrowding and insufficient shade and cooling, public support for the Government dropped to a record low and the opposition parties surged in the polls.

It was the deaths of those girls in New Mexico that sparked Joe Biden to seek the leadership of the Liberal Party for the second time after losing in 2001 to John Kerry. Biden had served as Attorney General and Foreign Secretary in the Kerry Governments but had not sought the leadership after Kerry resigned. In his announcement speech, precipitated by the resignation of leader Hillary Clinton in a scandal over the retention of Government records from her own time as Foreign Secretary, Biden called “our humanity […] the one thing that separates us as a nation from our enemies. We live in a society where every kid should be able to look at our flag and feel proud. Sadly, our leaders have led us away from that.”

Michael Bloomberg, another rich politician who would have had to pay the Romney-Barrasso Budget’s increase, had reshaped the Center Party since assuming control in 2012. Before Bloomberg’s literal investment, the Center Party was a rag-tag minor party focused on electoral reform. The Center Party’s best elections were 2000, when then-leader Ross Perot lean heavily into opposing Prime Minister Harkin’s trade platform and knocked off Labor Party International Business Secretary Ron Brown - despite Labor winning a majority government nationally - and 2010, when the Conservatives needed the 22 Center seats to prop up their government. Bloomberg led a surge in Center Party support in places like Chicago, Austin, New York, New Jersey, and San Francisco in the 2013 election, picking off Conservatives and Liberals alike. Many attribute the loss of traditional “Business District” Conservative MPs to the Center Party as the crux of the Conservative-National coalition.

Leading the Progressive Party into the 2023 General Election, Elizabeth Warren faced a difficult task in increasing her caucus. Of the 88 seats the Progressives held, only 12 were won by less than 5%. Of the 20 closest seats the Progressives failed to win, they trailed by an average of 8%. The party’s problem was that it was popular where it had already won, and a distant second where they hadn’t. Warren herself faced a similar dichotomy.

After Bernie Sanders’ untimely death in 2021 from COVID-19, Warren lapped the field in the provisional ballots - a weighted system allocated between affiliated labor unions, local constituency councils, MPs, and MPPs - but squeaked out a narrow 52-48 victory over Ayanna Pressley in the final public vote. Warren found herself with a strong mandate from the establishment of the party but a limited appeal with the general public.

Sanders had revitalized the Progressive Party from a rag-tag band of college students and career activists into a legitimate political movement. Then-Progressive Party Leader Eugene McCarthy merged his PP with Robert Kennedy’s Labor Party in 1970 in order to consolidate the anti-war left. The Labor-Progressive merger held firm, although with a much diminished Progressive identity, until the fall of Tom Harkin’s Labor Government in 2003. Labor MP Ralph Nader led a walk-out and launched a phoenix party in the Progressive name but failed to make headway with the broader public. It wasn’t until Nader stood down after the 2007 election, netting only 13 seats - all in urban cores or university towns - that Sanders, a former junior minister in the last Labor Government, emerged as a force. He spoke in a plain manner, presenting the Progressive cause as one of fundamental rights versus corporate greed. The Sanders Progressives reached their zenith in 2017, winning 102 seats and serving as the Official Opposition to the Liberal-Center coalition.

Previous Leaders of the Liberal Party, since 1990
Chuck Robb (1987-1993)
Al Gore (1993-1995)
Paul Tsongas (1995-2001)
John Kerry (2001-2010)
Russ Feingold (2010-2012)
Hillary Clinton (2012-2016)
Joe Biden (2016-2023)
Pete Buttigieg (2023-Present)

Previous Leaders of the Conservative Party, since 1990
Bob Dole (1988-1990)
George H.W. Bush (1990-1996)
Newt Gingrich (1996-2002)
George W. Bush (2002-2007)
John McCain (2007-2014)
Mitt Romney (2014-2016)
John Thune (2016-Present)

Previous Leaders of the National Party, since Founding
Sarah Palin (2009-2013)
Jan Brewer (2013-2015)
Kristi Noem (2015-2017)
Ted Cruz (2017-2020)
Matt Gaetz (2020-Present)

Previous Leaders of the Center Party, since Founding
Ross Perot (1993-2004)
Robert Reich (2004-2007)
John Sarbanes (2007-2010)
John Silber (2010-2012)
Michael Bloomberg (2012-Present)

Previous Leaders of the Progressive Party, since Re-Founding
Ralph Nader (2003-2007)
Bernie Sanders (2007-2021)
Elizabeth Warren (2022-Present)

_______________

[1] - Wikimedia Commons, Ed Demaria/Medill News Service
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2023, 07:13:24 PM »

Does anyone have any thoughts, questions, or feedback? It’s been a while since I’ve written a TL so I welcome any feedback to help me keep it sharp.

Are you considering including maps such as the numbers of representatives per state and what parties get the most votes by state? (Not looking for anything as intense as district maps)

I saw that the Progressives split from Labor; what happened to the remaining Laborites? Did they join the Liberals?

One last thing, if you’re looking for flashback ideas, I’d be interested in Hobart’s National Coalition and what was probably a bad four years under Harry Byrd.

Glad to see you’re back and making TLs! Yours were some of my favorites back when I was reading more TLs.
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DKrol
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2023, 08:23:07 PM »

Does anyone have any thoughts, questions, or feedback? It’s been a while since I’ve written a TL so I welcome any feedback to help me keep it sharp.

Are you considering including maps such as the numbers of representatives per state and what parties get the most votes by state? (Not looking for anything as intense as district maps)

I saw that the Progressives split from Labor; what happened to the remaining Laborites? Did they join the Liberals?

One last thing, if you’re looking for flashback ideas, I’d be interested in Hobart’s National Coalition and what was probably a bad four years under Harry Byrd.

Glad to see you’re back and making TLs! Yours were some of my favorites back when I was reading more TLs.

All good questions!

The 2023 election post will have those kinds of maps.

Labor straggled along as its own party until 2009, never elected double digits MPs again, when Workers' Rights Minister Russ Feingold (a former Labor MP) negotiated a formal merger.

Great ideas for some filler posts! Yes, the four years of the Byrd Government were not...a paradise.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2023, 12:05:16 AM »

Are domestic policies substantially different? I know you mentioned gun control and Noem wanting to slash healthcare.
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DKrol
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2023, 09:03:38 AM »

Are domestic policies substantially different? I know you mentioned gun control and Noem wanting to slash healthcare.

I will probably elaborate on more of these points once the 2023 Election is over, but, in general:

The Civil Rights movement became much more militant during Byrd's Government, and it was Nixon who made the first advances on Civil Rights (voting rights) but it wasn't until Kennedy took power that the housing, education, and employment aspects of the Civil Rights Movement came about.

The Harkin Minority Government adopted most of the liberal domestic policies of the IRL Clinton years - children's healthcare, family medical leave, assault weapons ban. The Harkin Majority Government got the healthcare reform that IRL Clinton never did, which ensured coverage for pre-existing conditions and set a national standard co-pay regardless of an individual's private insurance carrier. There was a push to create a national insurer for the uninsured, but that was scuttled from the final bill.

The Kerry Government enacted a handgun ban and a concealed carry ban. Kerry also amended the Harkin Healthcare Plan to create a national prescription drug coverage plan, which set maximum out of pocket costs for the 50 most common drugs.

McCain and Romney accepted the assault weapons ban and made no effort to repeal it. McCain repealed the concealed carry ban and Noem repealed the handgun ban. Norm attempted to repeal the Kerry Prescription plan but lacked the votes.

The Biden-Bloomberg Coalition reintroduced the handgun ban but fell just a single vote short on the concealed carry ban, over the objections of urban Center Party MPs who felt that concealed carry was a viable avenue for urban residents to protect themselves.

After winning his own Majority, Biden created a national health insurance carrier, to provide all Americans below a certain income threshold with a no-premium insurance plan (still subject to co-pays) financed through a billionaire's windfall tax. Biden also reintroduced the concealed carry ban.
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DKrol
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2023, 11:35:25 AM »

The 2023 Campaign post is taking longer to come together than expected, so here's a map of the 2020 Election Results.



Gray states are where no party has an overall majority.
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