Is CA-GOV 2021 Biden's MA-SEN 2010/AL-SEN 2017?

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is yes.

[Bootes Void]

Do you think there will be a republican governor in California?

[MT Treasurer]

I really don’t think Newsom is going to get recalled when all is said and done — safe to bet on partisanship/recent trends/demographic realities winning out before relying too much on mixed polling with a large number of D 'undecideds' or recall supporters. Sticking with my prediction of No/Newsom +9 (even if Yes wins on #1, #2 will be uphill for the GOP if there’s a last-minute consolidation effort around the most viable D replacement candidate, and it’s not like the GOP field isn’t splintered either).

[Roll Roons]

If it succeeds, still no.

This is a state race, as opposed to a federal one. So partisanship is somewhat less important and it's easier to make the race a referendum on Newsom rather than bringing in national leaders.

[tosk]

I get your point but if newsom is recalled it will probably have more to do with how democrats are running california specifically rather than running the country more broadly

[Progressive Pessimist]

Didn't we have a variation this thread already? Anyway, I say no. It's a literal referendum on Newsom, almost nothing to do with Biden.

[Xing]

I’d like OP to state something that’s happened in the past year that isn’t evidence that Democrats (or all of us) are doomed.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Even if Newsom is recalled, I think it will certainly come as less of a shock to Democrats than 2010 was.

[Torrain]

Not really. Even in this climate, I think there's a partisan difference between federal and statewide elections (see Governors Edwards, Beshear, Scott, Baker, Hogan, Kelly).

If Feinstein resigned in poor health, and was replaced by Senator Larry Elder or Richard Grenell, then we'd be talking.

It would still be an awful portent for Dems in 2022 though.

[Minnesota Mike]

My guess is yes.

Shocked.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My guess is yes.

Shocking.

It must be exhausting being so emotionally defeatist about politics on a daily basis.

[Politics Fan]

I actually think CA-Gov is probably more analogous to the recall election in Wisconsin where you had a polarizing gov that was reviled by the other party. Ultimately despite some close polls Walker won by 7% and the Republican Party lost the presidency later the year while losing seats in both the house and senate. I could very easily see Newsom win by 7 to 10 points while Democrats lose both houses of Congress next year and a handful of Governor mansions. Heck I could also see republicans still wining in Virginia after losing in CA by 9%. That’s how meaningless the race is to me. The most telling part is how turnout is with both parties.

[Politics Fan]

I really don’t think Newsom is going to get recalled when all is said and done — safe to bet on partisanship/recent trends/demographic realities winning out before relying too much on mixed polling with a large number of D 'undecideds' or recall supporters. Sticking with my prediction of No/Newsom +9 (even if Yes wins on #1, #2 will be uphill for the GOP if there’s a last-minute consolidation effort around the most viable D replacement candidate, and it’s not like the GOP field isn’t splintered either).

I can’t imagine most Democrats will really bother to fill out the second part of the ballot but yeah I agree Democrats will probably outperform there current polling as it becomes more of a binary question of do you want a Republican as your Gov. I also don’t think it really helps the Republican parties chances to have a rather conservative candidate be one of their front runners. Not saying they win if Faulkner is the likely alternative but it’s prob a bit closer like 52-48 versus 54-46 to 55-45.