Last governor election where the democrat won whites?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:02:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Last governor election where the democrat won whites?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Last governor election where the democrat won whites?  (Read 2485 times)
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 11:23:27 AM »

Here are my guesses for the south.
Alabama: 1982 probably, otherwise 1978
Arkansas: 2010
Kentucky: 2011
Virginia: Probably 1961
Texas: 1974
Tennessee: 2006
Oklahoma: 2006
Florida: Maybe 1990, otherwise 1982
Georgia: Probably not 1990, so 1986.
Louisiana: 1987? Otherwise 1983.
South Carolina: 1982
Mississippi: 1983 or 1979
Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 12:00:47 PM »

AL 1998
AK 1998 (not counting Walker)
AZ 2006
AR 2010
CA 1998 (im not sure abt 2018)
CO 2018
CT 1986
DE 2016
FL 1990
GA 1990
HI 2018
ID 1990
IL 1948 (again not sure abt 2018)
IN 2000
IO 2006
KS 2018 (I know the margin was close but the state is just so white)
KY 2011
LA 1991
ME 2018
MD 1990
MA 2006
MI 2006
MN 1986 (not sure abt 2018)
MS 1983
MO 2008
MT 2008
NE 1994
NV 1990
NH 2014
NJ 2001
NY 2010 (not sure abt 2018)
NC 2004
ND 1988
OH 2006
OK 2006
OR 2006
PA 2018
RI 2018
SC 1982
SD 1974
TN 2006
TX 1982
UT 1980
VT 2012 (2014 was very close though)
VA 1985
WA 2016
WV 2016
WI 2006
WY 2006

Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 12:01:37 PM »

AL 1998
AK 1998 (not counting Walker)
AZ 2006
AR 2010
CA 1998 (im not sure abt 2018)
CO 2018
CT 1986
DE 2016
FL 1990
GA 1990
HI 2018
ID 1990
IL 1948 (again not sure abt 2018)
IN 2000
IO 2006
KS 2018 (I know the margin was close but the state is just so white)
KY 2011
LA 1991
ME 2018
MD 1990
MA 2006
MI 2006
MN 1986 (not sure abt 2018)
MS 1983
MO 2008
MT 2008
NE 1994
NV 1990
NH 2014
NJ 2001
NY 2010 (not sure abt 2018)
NC 2004
ND 1988
OH 2006
OK 2006
OR 2006
PA 2018
RI 2018
SC 1982
SD 1974
TN 2006
TX 1982
UT 1980
VT 2012 (2014 was very close though)
VA 1985
WA 2016
WV 2016
WI 2006
WY 2006



2018 was a very hard year to judge bc the margins were big enough for many elections to say yes but the turnout was also much more diverse
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2020, 12:56:21 PM »

According to the exit poll Mark Dayton narrowly won the white vote in 2014 (48-47) and Walz won it solidly in 2018 (53-46)
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 01:04:34 PM »

Vermont 2010, 2012, (maybe) 2014

Maine 2018?
Logged
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2020, 01:05:07 PM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.
Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2020, 01:15:45 PM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.

Then it would be 1982 with George Wallace
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2020, 06:56:08 PM »

Colorado was certainly 2018, as exit polls indicated that Jared Polis won the white vote by 2% while winning by 11% overall. In the 21st century in Colorado, the white vote was carried by Bill Ritter in 2006, who won by 17%, and by John Hickenlooper in 2010, who won by 14%. Hickenlooper, however, almost certainly lost whites to Bob Beauprez in 2014, when he won reelection by 4%. That one is ironic, given how Ritter blew Beauprez out of the water just eight years previously.
Logged
Crane
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,080


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2020, 05:45:45 PM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.

Then it would be 1982 with George Wallace

Possibly not. Wallace got over 90% of the black vote according to Wikipedia.
Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 06:38:25 PM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.

Then it would be 1982 with George Wallace

that's true but if you look at the areas he won, a lot of it is very white

Possibly not. Wallace got over 90% of the black vote according to Wikipedia.
Logged
Intell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,817
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -1.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 07:39:06 AM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.

Then it would be 1982 with George Wallace


that's true but if you look at the areas he won, a lot of it is very white

Possibly not. Wallace got over 90% of the black vote according to Wikipedia.

Whites in Lilly white counties stayed more loyally democratic then  white counties where there were was a significant minority/majority of blacks. A lot of this has to do with those counties being detached form the politics of segregation and slavery- whites in those counties didn't think  about blacks so republican race-baiting/racial conservatism was less effective. Those counties swung heavily to McCain when the Democratic Party brought race to the forefront, and voters there finally couldn't ignore race.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 08:30:37 AM »

New Mexico definitely would have been Bill Richardson in 2006. Richardson won all but one of New Mexico's counties (Catron County) and received 69% of the overall vote. New Mexico whites (judging from Reagente's tables), tend to vote about 10-13% to the right of the state, so Richardson probably got in the mid to upper 50s among white voters. California in 2018 is a close call; my hunch is that the white vote went to Newsom by a narrow margin. Hillary Clinton got 61% in California (and received a lower percentage of the overall vote than Newsom), and she won the white vote by 5% according to exit polls.
Logged
StateBoiler
fe234
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,890


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 08:16:05 AM »

Indiana's easy. 2000.
Logged
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2020, 05:49:41 AM »

Where would NH fall on this?
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2020, 06:52:29 PM »

There is no way Don Siegelman won whites in 1998.

He had to in order to win by such a margin. He won whites in 1998

White Southern Democrats were still relevant in the late 1990s.

Siegelman lost them in 2002 and since then, AL Democrats have never won them back
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2020, 09:03:46 PM »


Yeah, Maine's 95.5% white & Mills won by almost 8 points, so I have to imagine she won white voters too.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2020, 10:28:31 PM »

Anyone have detailed data on Missouri 2012? I find it hard to believe Nixon didn't at least come close to winning whites with all those rural counties.
Logged
Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2020, 11:45:00 PM »

AL 1998
AK 1998 (not counting Walker)
AZ 2006
AR 2010
CA 1998 (im not sure abt 2018)
CO 2018
CT 1986
DE 2016
FL 1990
GA 1990
HI 2018
ID 1990
IL 1948 (again not sure abt 2018)
IN 2000
IO 2006
KS 2018 (I know the margin was close but the state is just so white)
KY 2011
LA 1991
ME 2018
MD 1990
MA 2006
MI 2006
MN 1986 (not sure abt 2018)
MS 1983
MO 2008
MT 2008
NE 1994
NV 1990
NH 2014
NJ 2001
NY 2010 (not sure abt 2018)
NC 2004
ND 1988
OH 2006
OK 2006
OR 2006
PA 2018
RI 2018
SC 1982
SD 1974
TN 2006
TX 1982
UT 1980
VT 2012 (2014 was very close though)
VA 1985
WA 2016
WV 2016
WI 2006
WY 2006


Disagree with KS. Its 20% Nonwhite and Kelly won by 5%
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2020, 02:18:37 PM »

VA has to be 2001 or 2005

Warner's 2001 campaign was all about winning southwest Virginia, or winning the NASCAR Dads....who are now the only bloc of support for VAGOP....they are more like the TNGOP/NCGOP than anything else
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2020, 08:31:26 PM »

Gavin Newsom even won white men in 2018.
Logged
prag_prog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 426
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2020, 02:42:22 PM »

I am pretty sure Walz won White vote in 2018..even Biden probably won White vote in MN this year
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,464
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2020, 10:28:41 PM »

New Mexico definitely would have been Bill Richardson in 2006. Richardson won all but one of New Mexico's counties (Catron County) and received 69% of the overall vote. New Mexico whites (judging from Reagente's tables), tend to vote about 10-13% to the right of the state, so Richardson probably got in the mid to upper 50s among white voters. California in 2018 is a close call; my hunch is that the white vote went to Newsom by a narrow margin. Hillary Clinton got 61% in California (and received a lower percentage of the overall vote than Newsom), and she won the white vote by 5% according to exit polls.

A bit off topic, but Susana Martinez—a Latina—won the Anglo vote twice, and won overall despite losing the Latino vote.  It might have been a similar situation with Brian Sandoval in Nevada the first time.

VA has to be 2001 or 2005

Warner's 2001 campaign was all about winning southwest Virginia, or winning the NASCAR Dads....who are now the only bloc of support for VAGOP....they are more like the TNGOP/NCGOP than anything else

You’re wrong.  A Democrat does not win Virginia whites while winning the state by only 5 or 6 points.  You forgot about those suburban whites Warner got crushed among.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2020, 10:32:48 PM »

New Mexico definitely would have been Bill Richardson in 2006. Richardson won all but one of New Mexico's counties (Catron County) and received 69% of the overall vote. New Mexico whites (judging from Reagente's tables), tend to vote about 10-13% to the right of the state, so Richardson probably got in the mid to upper 50s among white voters. California in 2018 is a close call; my hunch is that the white vote went to Newsom by a narrow margin. Hillary Clinton got 61% in California (and received a lower percentage of the overall vote than Newsom), and she won the white vote by 5% according to exit polls.

A bit off topic, but Susana Martinez—a Latina—won the Anglo vote twice, and won overall despite losing the Latino vote.  It might have been a similar situation with Brian Sandoval in Nevada the first time.

VA has to be 2001 or 2005

Warner's 2001 campaign was all about winning southwest Virginia, or winning the NASCAR Dads....who are now the only bloc of support for VAGOP....they are more like the TNGOP/NCGOP than anything else

You’re wrong.  A Democrat does not win Virginia whites while winning the state by only 5 or 6 points.  You forgot about those suburban whites Warner got crushed among.

I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case with Sandoval. But Martinez obviously got a much larger share of the Hispanic vote than a Generic Republican, probably well over 40% in both of her elections.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2020, 10:39:17 PM »

Anyone have detailed data on Missouri 2012? I find it hard to believe Nixon didn't at least come close to winning whites with all those rural counties.

I would assume Nixon came close as well, although I don't have the detailed data which you seek. He definitely won the white vote in 2008, however, when he beat Kenny Hulshof by 19%.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2021, 06:04:14 PM »

Possible dc mayor?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.