Ohio (PPP): Bunch of HD polls

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know how any of these voted in 2016? Could show us overall how Biden doing compared to Clinton here

Ohio HD16
Biden 54
Trump 42

Ohio HD23
Biden 49
Trump 46

Ohio HD27
Biden 50
Trump 45

Ohio HD36
Trump 49
Biden 47

Ohio HD37
Biden 53
Trump 44

Ohio HD43
Biden 49
Trump 46

Ohio HD89
Trump 50
Biden 46

https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1PnJV1bvj867_QXL69wnv_VLG9rrvHWOX

[Virginiá]

2016 results


HD-16
-----------------------------------
50.78% Clinton
45.09% Trump

HD-23
-----------------------------------
44.07% Clinton
50.55% Trump

HD-27
-----------------------------------
44.18% Clinton
50.48% Trump

HD-36
-----------------------------------
43.84% Clinton
51.40% Trump

HD-37
-----------------------------------
48.22% Clinton
47.58% Trump

HD-43
-----------------------------------
44.83% Clinton
51.71% Trump

HD-89
-----------------------------------
40.79% Clinton
54.12% Trump

[redjohn]

HD-16

50.78% Clinton
45.09% Trump

HD-23

44.07% Clinton
50.55% Trump

HD-27

44.18% Clinton
50.48% Trump

HD-36

43.84% Clinton
51.40% Trump

HD-37

48.22% Clinton
47.58% Trump

HD-43

44.83% Clinton
51.71% Trump

HD-89

40.79% Clinton
54.12% Trump

Any estimate of what the statewide result would look like given these swings from the PPP polls?

[BlueSwan]

Consistent with Ohio being a tossup.

[kireev]

HD-16

50.78% Clinton
45.09% Trump

HD-23

44.07% Clinton
50.55% Trump

HD-27

44.18% Clinton
50.48% Trump

HD-36

43.84% Clinton
51.40% Trump

HD-37

48.22% Clinton
47.58% Trump

HD-43

44.83% Clinton
51.71% Trump

HD-89

40.79% Clinton
54.12% Trump

Any estimate of what the statewide result would look like given these swings from the PPP polls?

Approximately 8.5% swing towards D which would make OH a pure toss-up.

[wbrocks67]

HD16
2016: Clinton +6
2020: Biden +12

HD23
2016: Trump +7
2020: Biden +3

HD27
2016: Trump +6
2020: Biden +5

HD36
2016: Trump +7
2020: Trump +2

HD37
2016: Clinton +1
2020: Biden +9

HD43
2016: Trump +7
2020: Biden +3

HD89
2016: Trump +13
2020: Trump +4

Shifts to Biden of 6%, 10%, 11%, 5%, 10%, 10%, and 9%

[Roll Roons]

A guy I knew from college is actually running for State Rep in Ohio! I forget the district number, but it's based in Lorain County and I think it was an Obama-Trump district. Sadly it was not one of the ones polled, but I'd be curious to see what's happening there.

Anyway, I think it's safe to say Ohio will be extremely close this year.

[kireev]

2016 results


HD-16
-----------------------------------
50.78% Clinton
45.09% Trump

HD-23
-----------------------------------
44.07% Clinton
50.55% Trump

HD-27
-----------------------------------
44.18% Clinton
50.48% Trump

HD-36
-----------------------------------
43.84% Clinton
51.40% Trump

HD-37
-----------------------------------
48.22% Clinton
47.58% Trump

HD-43
-----------------------------------
44.83% Clinton
51.71% Trump

HD-89
-----------------------------------
40.79% Clinton
54.12% Trump

And PPP perfectly weighted all of them by the 2016 results, which makes 8.5% DEM swing quite impressive.

[Roronoa D. Law]

HD16 (Westlake)
-----------------------------------
2016: Clinton +6
2020: Biden +12
Swing: 6%

HD23 (Grove City)
-----------------------------------
2016: Trump +7
2020: Biden +3
Swing: 10%

HD27 (Village of Indian Hill-Anderson Twp)
-----------------------------------
2016: Trump +6
2020: Biden +5
Swing: 11%

HD36 (SE Summit County)
-----------------------------------
2016: Trump +7
2020: Trump +2
Swing: 5%

HD37 (NE Summit County)
-----------------------------------
2016: Clinton +1
2020: Biden +9
Swing: 10%

HD43 (Trotwood and Preble County)
-----------------------------------
2016: Trump +7
2020: Biden +3
Swing: 10%

HD89 (Erie and Ottawa county)
-----------------------------------
2016: Trump +13
2020: Trump +4
Swing: 9%

Much better

[Rand]

J O E H I O

[VAR]

2016 results

2018 results (the governor’s race)?

[woodley park]

Pretty encouraging. Either way, is 2020 likely Ohio's last election as a bellwether?

[DaleCooper]

If Ohio is a tossup then MN, WI, MI, and PA are Likely D, or at least bordering on it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 9-10

HD16
562 voters

Presidential: Not sure 4%

State House:
Smith (D) 40%
Greenspan (R-inc.) 37%
Not sure 23%

Greenspan (R) won 53.7%-46.3% in 2018.

HD23
512 voters

Presidential: Not sure 5%

State House:
Lanese (R-inc.) 37%
Day-Achauer (D) 35%
Not sure 28%

Lanese (R) won 55.5%-44.5% in 2018.

HD27
524 voters

Presidential: Not sure 5%

State House:
Bitter (D) 38%
Brinkman Jr. (R-inc.) 36%
Not sure 26%

Brinkman Jr. (R) won 53.4%-46.6% in 2018.

HD36
562 voters

Presidential: Not sure 4%

State House:
Shaughnessy (D) 37%
Young (R) 37%
Not sure 27%

DeVitis (R) won 55.3%-44.7% in 2018.

HD37
540 voters

Presidential: Not sure 3%

State House:
Weinstein (D-inc.) 42%
Bigham (R) 36%
Not sure 27%

Weinstein (D) won 50.6%-49.4% in 2018.

HD43
597 voters

Presidential: Not sure 5%

State House:
Cox (D) 35%
Creech (R) 34%
Not sure 31%

Smith (R) won 50.2%-49.8% in 2018.

HD89
588 voters

Presidential: Not sure 3%

State House:
Swearingen (R) 37%
Miller (D) 33%
Not sure 30%

Arndt (R) won 65%-35% in 2018.

[The Mikado]

Pretty encouraging. Either way, is 2020 likely Ohio's last election as a bellwether?

It's not a bellwether this year.  Even if we end up with, let's say, Biden winning nationally by 8 and winning Ohio by 1, voting 7 points to the right of the national average is not bellwether territory.

[ultraviolet]

Pretty encouraging. Either way, is 2020 likely Ohio's last election as a bellwether?

It's not a bellwether this year.  Even if we end up with, let's say, Biden winning nationally by 8 and winning Ohio by 1, voting 7 points to the right of the national average is not bellwether territory.

I think he just means Ohio’s streak

[Progressive Pessimist]

House and statewide district polls always seem to be favorable to Biden, I hope they turn out to be accurate when it's all said and done.

[DaleCooper]

House and statewide district polls always seem to be favorable to Biden, I hope they turn out to be accurate when it's all said and done.

For now, it would require a much greater polling error for the state & district polls to be wrong than it would for the national polls to be off given how much we have of the former that is consistent across many states.

[Hope For A New Era]

Pretty encouraging. Either way, is 2020 likely Ohio's last election as a bellwether?

Honestly, with the strong growth in Columbus, and with Cincinnati still having a huge amount of room for Democrats to grow (really weirdly R city - not just the suburbs, the entire city), it may very well continue to be a swing state (not a bellwether, just a swing state) for a while yet.

It's becoming increasingly clear that 2016 was a case of Clinton being exceptionally weak with WWC voters and Trump being exceptionally strong with them, rather than a dramatic long-term rightward jump of that demographic. The 2018 Congressional results and Biden's current polls are proof of that. Make no mistake, WWC are realigning, but 2016 was an outlier. If everything goes how I think it might, the Democrats could have quite a formidable coalition in the 2020s.

Not something I would have predicted six months ago, but here we are.

Perhaps the new national bellwether will be Pennsylvania.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

J O E H I O

Buckeye Biden.

[Buzz]

PPP is a quality pollster - Wbrocks67

[lfromnj]

Ohio dems fell even deeper into the minority and this wasn't even due to gerrymandering just a few seats collapsed .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio and IA voted the same way it did in 2016, nothing changed