Monmouth-AZ Biden+4

[SaneDemocrat]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_az_091720/

[wbrocks67]

RV: Biden 48, Trump 44
"High Likely Turnout": Biden 48, Trump 46
"Low Likely Turnout": Biden 47, Trump 47

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

[Gass3268]

RV: Biden 48, Trump 44
"High Likely Turnout": Biden 48, Trump 46
"Low Likely Turnout": Biden 47, Trump 47

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

Eh, I’m not too worried here. If Biden is winning Maricopa County by 6 like they say in the high turnout model, Biden has it.

[Tender Branson]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

[VAR]

Trump fav: 40/51 (-11, was 41/50)
Biden fav: 42/47 (-5, was 36/38)
McSally fav: 40/42 (-2, was 35/39)
Kelly fav: 48/29 (+19, was 41/17)
Sinema fav: 38/21 (+17)
Ducey fav: 33/46 (-13)

Maricopa: Biden 50-44
Latinos: Biden 63-33

Sample: I 39, R 35, D 25 | 70 white, 30 nonwhite | 65 no degree, 35 4-year degree

[wbrocks67]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

Yes, we did. When voter engagement increases, usually helps Dems.

[kph14]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

It's always difficult to say whether high turnout helped one party or the other. What is true that in almost all Monmouth polls in 2018 we saw that the higher turnout model gave Democrats better margins.

That being said I feel that these kind of likely voter models are the main reason that Democrats usually outperform in states that have many Hispanics like NV, AZ, CA or TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should all be weary of polls, expecially Trafalgar or Rassy showing House effect polls going to Trump, since Early voting and VBM is going on, Democratic voters are most likely to vote Early voting, while conservative and Senior citizens tend to wait til election day, due to the fact, Seniors are more dependent on the pollworker salary, since, obstructionist McConnell rather vote on Judges, and he blocked Garland anyways, than pass a 1200 stimulus

[GeneralMacArthur]

Trump fav: 40/51 (-11, was 41/50)
Biden fav: 42/47 (-5, was 36/38)
McSally fav: 40/42 (-2, was 35/39)
Kelly fav: 48/29 (+19, 41/17)
Sinema fav: 38/21 (+17)
Ducey fav: 33/46 (-13)

Maricopa: Biden 50-41
Nonwhites: Biden 67-28

Sample: I 39, R 35, D 25 | 70 white, 30 nonwhite | 65 no degree, 35 4-year degree

Jesus Christ, those Kelly and Sinema favorables.  BEAST

[Skill and Chance]

Not that great for Biden TBH.

[wbrocks67]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

It's always difficult to say whether high turnout helped one party or the other. What is true that in almost all Monmouth polls in 2018 we saw that the higher turnout model gave Democrats better margins.

That being said I feel that these kind of likely voter models are the main reason that Democrats usually outperform in states that have many Hispanics like NV, AZ, CA or TX

And you wonder what the inners of these models are that could take Kelly for example from +6 among RV to only +1 among "low turnout". That's a pretty big discrepancy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

RV: Biden 48, Trump 44
"High Likely Turnout": Biden 48, Trump 46
"Low Likely Turnout": Biden 47, Trump 47

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

"High likely turnout" is still a lower turnout model than a model including all registered voters.

[Rand]

As was predicted in the early 2000s, Arizona continues to slip further away from Republicans--and the Southwest's 30-year shift toward Democrats continues.

California, check.
New Mexico, check.
Colorado, check.
Nevada, check.
Arizona, almost.
Texas, you're next.

[wbrocks67]

Not that great for Biden TBH.

Considering AZ polls have underestimated Dems in 2016 and 2018, Biden being +2/+4 (there's no way lower turnout is happening), is pretty damn good for a state Trump won by 3.5.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 11-15
420 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.8%

Registered voters:
Changes with March 11-14 poll

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 4% (not previously included)
No one 1% (-1)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters)  (-3)
Undecided 3% (-3)

Jorgensen + Other candidate is stilly only 4%

With turnout modelled as higher than 2016's (likely voters):

Other 3%
Undecided 3%

With turnout modelled as lower than 2016's (likely voters):

Other 3%
Undecided 3%

[kph14]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

It's always difficult to say whether high turnout helped one party or the other. What is true that in almost all Monmouth polls in 2018 we saw that the higher turnout model gave Democrats better margins.

That being said I feel that these kind of likely voter models are the main reason that Democrats usually outperform in states that have many Hispanics like NV, AZ, CA or TX

And you wonder what the inners of these models are that could take Kelly for example from +6 among RV to only +1 among "low turnout". That's a pretty big discrepancy.

Democratic Pollster Mark Mellman put out an op-ed called "The likely voter sham" today, using Harry Reid's reelection in 2010 as the main example

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/516655-mellman-the-likely-voter-sham#.X2OB9eOAHmY.twitter

[kireev]

The strangest thing in this poll is that when they ask about party registration it's 32% DEM, but when they ask about party ID it's 25% DEM. It could be true somewhere in the South, but not in AZ.

[VAR]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

It's always difficult to say whether high turnout helped one party or the other. What is true that in almost all Monmouth polls in 2018 we saw that the higher turnout model gave Democrats better margins.

That being said I feel that these kind of likely voter models are the main reason that Democrats usually outperform in states that have many Hispanics like NV, AZ, CA or TX

AZ polls were spot on in 2018 and underestimated Trump in 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arizona is the state I worry the least about. Republicans seem to be imploding in Maricopa and the rest of the state just doesn't have enough whites to overcome that.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

Yes, we did. When voter engagement increases, usually helps Dems.

In AZ, NV, TX yes because the low propensity voters in this state are hispanic. In the big three(MI, WI, PA) it helps gop because WWC dont turn out as much. In rural black areas like the ones in GA, MS, NC it is a wash because the GOP electorate is WWC but the dem electorate is poor minorities that dont turn out as well either.

[redjohn]

Lean D, closer to tilt. Biden probably pulls through, but Trump has time to save his sinking ship.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lean D for the Presidential race. Likely D for the Senate race.

[wbrocks67]

Lean D, closer to tilt. Biden probably pulls through, but Trump has time to save his sinking ship.

Eh, Trump has not led an Arizona poll pretty much the entire year

[DaleCooper]

If Biden's average lead in Arizona is greater than 2 by election day then I bet he wins here. If Trump over-performs anywhere this year, I doubt very seriously it'll be in Arizona or Texas.

[kph14]

I still don't understand how somehow both high and low likely turnout help Trump rather than Biden? We saw in 2018 that higher than normal turnout helped Dems...

No, we didn't see that.

It's always difficult to say whether high turnout helped one party or the other. What is true that in almost all Monmouth polls in 2018 we saw that the higher turnout model gave Democrats better margins.

That being said I feel that these kind of likely voter models are the main reason that Democrats usually outperform in states that have many Hispanics like NV, AZ, CA or TX

AZ polls were spot on in 2018 and underestimated Trump in 2016.

In 2018, RCP average had McSally up by 1.0, she lost by 2.3.
In 2016, RCP average had Trump up by 4.0 (the last three polls all were Trump +5 or +4) and he won it by 3.5

It's a modest effect but I stand behind my statement