NC-Suffolk University/USA Today: Cunningham +4
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  NC-Suffolk University/USA Today: Cunningham +4
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Author Topic: NC-Suffolk University/USA Today: Cunningham +4  (Read 657 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 17, 2020, 06:23:55 AM »

Sep 11-14, 500 LV

Cunningham (D) 42%
Tillis (R-inc.) 38%

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_17_2020_final_marginals_pdftxt.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 06:24:57 AM »

The amount of undecided/others in these polls are indefensible, especially from esteemed pollsters.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 10:31:26 AM »

The amount of undecided/others in these polls are indefensible, especially from esteemed pollsters.

They aren't all undecided.

Bray (L) 6%
Other 2%
Hayes (C) 2%
Refused 0%
Undecided 11%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2020, 10:44:52 AM »

The amount of undecided/others in these polls are indefensible, especially from esteemed pollsters.

They aren't all undecided.

Bray (L) 6%
Other 2%
Hayes (C) 2%
Refused 0%
Undecided 11%

Yeah, the sample is just way too heavy on 3rd parties. Considering the sample itself was only Trump 43-42, that's way too many 3rd party
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 10:47:22 AM »

The amount of undecided/others in these polls are indefensible, especially from esteemed pollsters.

They aren't all undecided.

Bray (L) 6%
Other 2%
Hayes (C) 2%
Refused 0%
Undecided 11%

Yeah, the sample is just way too heavy on 3rd parties. Considering the sample itself was only Trump 43-42, that's way too many 3rd party

High undecided %s in previous samples among Trump voters (Tillis seems to have a problem with his base) turning into support for conservative third party candidates makes more sense than Cunningham having massive crossover appeal.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2020, 02:11:42 PM »

The high number of undecideds in many of these polls is basically the only silver lining for Tillis at this point (other than the fact that Trump probably wins NC if the national race tightens even a little and/or polling slightly understates Republican strength). He’s obviously in big trouble, however, especially with early and absentee voting already underway. I maintain that he’s not going to underperform Trump by more than 1% and that there’s an outside (and underrated) chance he slightly outruns him, but either way, it might not be enough.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 02:53:44 PM »

At this rate, Senator Undecided (I-NC) is practically inevitable.

Either way, another bad poll for Tillis, though I still think this isn't more than Tilt D.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2020, 03:45:51 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Suffolk University on 2020-09-14

Summary: D: 42%, R: 38%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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