CO-03 - Expedition Strategies (D): Tie

[VAR]

Sep 9-14, 754 LV, MoE: 3.6%

Biden 47%
Trump 47%

House race: Mitsch Bush 46-44

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/CO-03-Poll-091620.pdf

[wbrocks67]

how much did Trump win this by?

[Pericles]

A lot more districts and states seem to be trending D than trending R, something seems off. My guess is some of the state polls are overestimating Biden, but it could also be like 2012 and the national polls are underestimating Biden. Does this sound accurate?

[wbrocks67]

A lot more districts and states seem to be trending D than trending R, something seems off. My guess is some of the state polls are overestimating Biden, but it could also be like 2012 and the national polls are underestimating Biden. Does this sound accurate?

Well we just got YouGov, Ipsos and Morning Consult at Biden +8/9. Those are the upper tier of online polls, so it mostly makes sense.

The problem is there's a ton of other junk national polling and we haven't gotten a ton of high quality stuff in the past few weeks.

[Mr.Phips]

If this is the case, Biden is winning Colorado by double digits.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is the second poll that shows Trump and Biden tied here. At the end I expect Trump to win but with a significantly reduced margin.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Don't know/refused 5%

[Sbane]

This isn't the part of Colorado you would expect to trend to Biden. This district swung to Trump by 6 points in 2016 while the state swung by less than 1 point to Trump.

[Calthrina950]

This isn't the part of Colorado you would expect to trend to Biden. This district swung to Trump by 6 points in 2016 while the state swung by less than 1 point to Trump.

This district was held by the Democrats as recently as 2010, when John Salazar (brother of former Senator, Colorado AG, and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar) was defeated by the current Republican incumbent, Scott Tipton-who of course was upset a few months ago in the Republican primary by Lauren Boebert. Obviously, in recent years, as Hispanic Southern Colorado has trended Republican, the district has moved farther away from the Democrats. But they still have a substantial base there-not just the Hispanic counties, but the ski resorts-and they came within single digits there during the 2018 midterms. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump still won the district by a narrow margin in the end, but this bodes very poorly for him and for Gardner in the state as a whole, and gives Diane Mitsch-Bush, who will almost certainly run ahead of Biden and Hickenlooper, a better chance against Boebert.

[Alben Barkley]

If this is the case, Biden is winning Colorado by double digits.

Which basically every poll has shown for months.

[NOVA Green]

If true Pueblo County is flipping back hard Dem, as well as similar small Counties in South Central CO...

Garfield County likely flips, and Biden likely over-performs Obama '08 in Mesa County...

It wouldn't be especially surprising to see the "Ski Communities" have Biden capture the overwhelming share of the '16 3rd Party vote, as well as some some Republican and Republican leaning Indy Upper-Middle-Class residents of those counties as well...

[Super Callous Fragile Racist Sexist Nazi POTUS]

I could see Busch winning this seat and it then uneventfully flipping back to the GOP next time with a better candidate, a la Betsy Markey 2008.

[EastOfEden]

I could see Busch winning this seat and it then uneventfully flipping back to the GOP next time with a better candidate, a la Betsy Markey 2008.

I think this is pretty likely. Two-year loaner seat.