The South in 1968 in a two-way race between pro-civil rights candidates
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  The South in 1968 in a two-way race between pro-civil rights candidates
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Author Topic: The South in 1968 in a two-way race between pro-civil rights candidates  (Read 235 times)
President Johnson
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« on: September 16, 2020, 03:21:51 PM »

How would the South have voted in 1968 if the presidential election was a binary choice between a pro-civil rights Democrat and a liberal Republican? Say the Democratic nominee is one of Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey or Robert Kennedy, while the Republican nominee is either Nelson Rockefeller or George Romney? Latter two did not have the appeal of Barry Goldwater to Southerners, who opposed the Civil Rights bill for non-racist reasons. But would Southern states, who went to Wallace and Nixon in 1968, vote for said Democrats? I think Lyndon Johnson would still stand the best chance as a Southerner, but the Deep South clearly rejected him four years earlier. Hubert and Bobby would likely have been unacceptable as well, though they would have won Texas (which Humphrey actually did).

Actually, I think a Dixiecrat candidate would have been inevitable that year unless Nixon with his Southern Strategy or one of Reagan/Goldwater is the Republican candidate, but I just wonder how these states would have gone if forced to choose between the names above.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2020, 03:52:19 PM »


Actually, I think a Dixiecrat candidate would have been inevitable that year unless Nixon with his Southern Strategy or one of Reagan/Goldwater is the Republican candidate, but I just wonder how these states would have gone if forced to choose between the names above.

Part of Nixon's Southern Strategy was predicated exactly on having a Dixiecrat candidate in the mix.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2020, 05:07:54 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 05:13:01 PM by Alben Barkley »

Nixon, Reagan, or Goldwater would have won the South.

George Romney or Nelson Rockefeller would not have.

So it really all depends on the Republican candidate. Since you said both are pro-Civil Rights, I'm assuming one of the latter. Or maybe Nixon but no Southern Strategy/dogwhistling. In that case, I think the South probably just sticks with the Democrat. Maybe even votes for unpledged Dixiecrat electors if there's no Wallace actually running. It could be kind of like 1960 in fact: Most vote for the Democrat, but AL/MS in particular are likely to split their electors.

I find it a bit easier to see the South voting for LBJ or even RFK than Humphrey, however. He really didn't have much appeal in the South, and mostly won Texas just on the strength of being LBJ's VP. That said, even he probably would have won against Romney or Rockefeller. Combination of blacks exercising their newly won voting rights and lingering Democratic partisanship would keep him on top.
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